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DAWN WIRE SERVICE

------------------------------------------------------------------- Week Ending : 01 March 1997 Issue : 03/09 -------------------------------------------------------------------

Contents | National News | Business & Economy | Editorials & Features | Sports

The DAWN Wire Service (DWS) is a free weekly news-service from Pakistan's largest English language newspaper, the daily DAWN. DWS offers news, analysis and features of particular interest to the Pakistani Community on the Internet. Extracts from DWS can be used provided that this entire header is included at the beginning of each extract. We encourage comments & suggestions. We can be reached at: e-mail dws@dawn.khi.erum.com.pk dws%dawn%khi@sdnpk.undp.org fax +92(21) 568-3188 & 568-3801 mail Pakistan Herald Publications (Pvt.) Limited DAWN Group of Newspapers Haroon House, Karachi 74400, Pakistan TO START RECEIVING DWS FREE EVERY WEEK, JUST SEND US YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS! (c) Pakistan Herald Publications (Pvt.) Ltd., Pakistan - 1996 ******************************************************************** *****DAWN - the Internet Edition ** DAWN - the Internet Edition***** ******************************************************************** Read DAWN - the Internet Edition on the WWW ! http://xiber.com/dawn Pakistan's largest English language newspaper, DAWN, is now Pakistan's first newspaper on the WWW. DAWN - the Internet Edition will be published daily (except on Fridays and public holidays in Pakistan) and would be available on the Web by noon GMT. Check us out ! DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS

CONTENTS

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NATIONAL NEWS

Dual nationality Restrictions of visa may go Army called out after clashes in Multan Five killed in Lahore blast, firing on mosque Asif caught on tape admitting drug trade : UK paper PPP to sue Sunday Times Beg says he is not answerable to court New foreign secretary appointed Eight-member federal cabinet sworn in HRCP disputes turnout figures in elections Siachen, trade should be basis of bilateral talks ---------------------------------

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Foreign exchange reserves cross $1 billion mark Traders fear misuse of green channel State Bank spells out details Nawaz to honour caretakers commitments Victory carries a load of responsibility Sharifs uphill task to reduce prices Pakistans post-election economic prospects Links to be forged with overseas stock markets KSE index loses 43 points, fresh sell-off predicted ---------------------------------------

EDITORIALS & FEATURES

Toil and tears Ardeshir Cowasjee The high cost of intelligence Mazdak Big Brother Omar Kureishi Counting the cost of Kashmir Mazdak Ultimate responsibility Hafizur Rahman -----------

SPORTS

Mujtaba, 91, helps Pakistan lift SAARC trophy Zaheer wants more regional cricket matches Jansher threatens to skip World Series event Pakistans hockey potential Venturing a verdict on the most dangerous attack

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NATIONAL NEWS

970221 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dual nationality Restrictions of visa may go ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb 20: Pakistanis holding dual nationality may not be required to obtain visas for entering the country of their origin as the federal government is considering certain facilities for them. Sources said relaxation in the visa restrictions for people of Pakistani origin having dual nationality was being considered by the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who had recently appealed to the overseas Pakistanis to deposit at least $1,000 in their accounts in Pakistan to help reconstruct the countrys economy. The appeal is reported to have already started getting a positive response from the Pakistanis living abroad as, according to the State Banks reports, Pakistans foreign reserves have been swelling since the victory of Pakistan Muslim League in the general elections on Feb 3. The sources said a final and formal decision regarding the relaxation in visa restrictions to those having dual nationality was expected shortly. A senior official of the FIA immigration, who asked not to be named, however, told Dawn that he had been directed by his seniors to ensure maximum facilities for the incoming people having dual nationality. He said those possessing dual nationality in the United States and other European countries were required to obtain a visa from the Pakistani embassies in their respective countries for entering the country of their origin. However, under the immigration rules, the such people holding Pakistani passport along with their foreign passports could also enter Pakistan without a visa, but they are given a landing permit for 72 hours by the immigration authorities and were bound to obtain a visa from the passport office if they wished to prolong their stay beyond 72 hours, the official said. The FIA official said maximum facilities to those with dual nationality technically meant that they might not be required to obtain the visa for their stay in Pakistan. They could enter the country on their foreign passports, he added. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Army called out after clashes in Multan ------------------------------------------------------------------- Our Correspondent MULTAN, Feb 21: The district administration had to call out army to maintain law and order and avert any further untoward incident after three people, including an ASI, were injured in a clash between protesters and police near Chungi-No 9 on Friday afternoon. The army is patrolling the Suraj-Miani, Khanewal Road, LMO Road, and Kutchery Road areas. Police also resorted to baton-charge and teargas to disperse a group of protesters who turned violent after attending the funeral prayers for the four people killed in the Iranian Culture Centre firing. Funeral prayers for the four were to be held at 2pm at the sports ground, but these were held at 4:30pm after the administrations assurance that three Shia leaders, Prof Mazhar Husain Gilani, Allama Bashir Ahmed Momin and Allama Ahmed Raza Najfi, would be released on Saturday morning. Leaders of the PPP, the Milli Yekjehti Council, the Muslim League and the Khidmat-i-Insaniyat Party also attended the funeral. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Five killed in Lahore blast, firing on mosque ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter LAHORE, Feb. 27: Five people were killed and over 15 suffered injuries in two terrorist incidents in the provincial metropolis. A bomb explosion at a busy wagon-stand near railway station claimed three lives and injured 13 others, five of them critically, while two traders said to be financiers of Sipah-i- Sahaba were killed and two others injured in a shooting incident outside the Masjid-i-Shuhada. Police said people were boarding a wagon at the railway station stand at about 8.50 pm when a powerful explosion ripped through the vehicle. The roof and doors of the vehicle were blown away and people sitting inside sustained serious injuries. Flying glass splinters also injured a number of people standing nearby. A few vehicles parked alongside the wagon were also damaged. Rescue operation started about 15 minutes after the incident. Eleven people were brought to Mayo Hospital where three succumbed to their injuries. Some people were under treatment at the Railway Cairn Hospital. Police cordoned off the area soon after the incident and senior civil and police officials visited the spot to gather first- hand information. A bomb-disposal-squad official said an explosive device weighing about 1.5 kg was placed beneath the wagon, and it was premature to say whether it was a remote control device. The van owner, Allah Ditta -said he saw no suspicious person boarding or alighting. He said they had reached the wagon-stand about 15 minutes before the incident and swept the floor of the van. Nothing was present inside it. The bomb, he said, was placed beneath the vehicle afterwards. The identity of the people killed in the incident was not established and the bodies remained at the hospital. Two of the deceased were teenagers while the third was about 25-years-old. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Asif caught on tape admitting drug trade : UK paper ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shaheen Sehbai WASHINGTON, Feb. 24: Authorities here were tight-lipped about the reported disclosures by Londons Sunday Times that Asif Ali Zardari had been caught on tape admitting his alleged drug connections and crimes. The State Department, the Drug Enforcement Administration and the CIA were separately approached by Dawn for their comments but each of them declined to say anything at this stage. We are not even in a situation where we can speculate about it, a State Department official said when inquired whether in such cases it was possible that the United States might ask for drug offenders to be brought to the US for trial. Declining to offer any further comments, the official said: We are looking into these reports. A CIA public affairs spokesman said he would not comment on the report either. The news, however, struck the Pakistani community and even these US departments like a bomb shell. Scores of Pakistanis telephoned Dawn to know whether it was correct and what had been the US reaction to the disclosures. The Sunday Times had revealed that an undercover agent, posing as a drug dealer, had taped a five-hour discussion with Mr Zardari, in which he revealed how he had been shipping heroin to the UK on a regular basis. Most of the Pakistanis asked the names of the senior PAF officer and the businessman who were allegedly present when the agent recorded the conversation with Mr Zardari. The Pakistan government should now get to the bottom of the case and extract the truth from Mr Zardari as well as the PAF officer and the businessman, a Pakistani American businessman said. Observers said the timing of the disclosures was very relevant to the situation in Pakistan where the caretaker government had failed to prove any charge of corruption against Mr Zardari and had arrested him in connection with Murtaza Bhuttos murder. They said the authorities could now officially seek the contents of the tapes and institute charges of drug trafficking against Mr Zardari and his friends who were allegedly involved. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- PPP to sue Sunday Times ------------------------------------------------------------------- Bureau Report ISLAMABAD, Feb. 24: The Pakistan Peoples Party has decided to take legal recourse against the Sunday Times for carrying, what they called, a concocted and baseless story regarding the involvement of Mr Asif Ali Zardari in drug smuggling. The party is setting up a panel of lawyers to file legal damage suit against the Sunday Times of London. The party high command is also writing a letter to the CIA to make public the evidences, including the audio cassettes proving Mr Zardaris involvement in drug smuggling. The PPP chairperson is being made a target of senseless media propaganda because she is perceived to be the main obstacle in the on-going conspiracy against Pakistan, said a PPP spokesman. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Beg says he is not answerable to court ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Correspondent ISLAMABAD, Feb. 24: Former army chief Gen Aslam Beg told the Supreme Court that he was not answerable to it regarding his actions as the chief of army staff and the sitting COAS is the only competent and proper person to look into the allegations or take action. He made this statement after the issuance of notice by the Supreme Court on the petition of Air Marshal (retd) Asghar Khan. The former air chief had filed a petition against the former COAS alleging that he had drawn Rs150 million from the Mehran Bank and had distributed the amount to different politicians before the 1990 elections. When the hearing started on Monday, Deputy Attorney-General Mumtaz Ahmed Mirza placed a certificate from the secretary ministry of defence stating that the ISI had not received any money. The counsel for Gen Beg, Mohammad Akram Shaikh, demanded that Gen (retd) Asad Durrani and General (retd) Naseerullah Babar should be summoned to the court for recording their statements. The three-member bench of the Supreme Court consisting of Justice Saiduzzaman Siddiqui, Justice Fazal Ellahi Khan and Justice Bashir Jehangiri, adjourned the hearing of the case till March 26. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- New foreign secretary appointed ------------------------------------------------------------------- Bureau Report ISLAMABAD, Feb. 25: The government on Tuesday removed Najmuddin Sheikh from the office of Secretary of Foreign Affairs and appointed Shamshad Ahmed as the new foreign secretary. Shamshad Ahmed was a Special Secretary in the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Najmuddin Sheikh, who served as Secretary of Foreign Affairs for almost three years, had been appointed by the government of Benazir Bhutto. Shamshad Ahmed, who belongs to the 1965 batch, was also Secretary-General of the Economic Cooperation Organisation. During his 32-year-long service as a diplomat, he has been Pakistans ambassador to Tehran and South Korea. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Eight-member federal cabinet sworn in ------------------------------------------------------------------- Bureau Report ISLAMABAD, Feb. 25: An eight-member federal cabinet was sworn in on Tuesday night at a ceremony at the presidency here. President Farooq Leghari administered oath. The cabinet includes five ministers (including one adviser having the status of a federal minister) from Punjab, two from NWFP and one from Sindh. Those who took oath as ministers from Punjab are Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain (Ministry of Interior and Narcotics Control with additional charge of Ministries of Railways, Labour, Manpower and Overseas Pakistanis); Chaudhry Nisar Ali (Ministry of Water and Power with additional charge of Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources); Syeda Abida Hussain (Ministry of Population Welfare with additional charge of Ministries of Women Development, Social Welfare and Special Education, Environment, Local Government and Rural Development); Mohammad Ishaq Dar ( Ministry of Commerce with additional charge of Ministry of Industries and Investment); and Mushahid Hussain (Adviser to the Prime Minister on Information and Media Development with the status of a full minister with additional charge of Ministry of Culture, Sports, Tourism, and Youth Affairs). The NWFP is represented by former National Assembly Speaker Gohar Ayub (Ministry of foreign affairs with additional charge of Ministry of Kashmir Affairs, Northern Areas, States and Frontier Regions) and Sartaj Aziz( Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and Statistics with additional charge of Planning and Development Division) and Sindh is represented by Syed Asghar Shah (Ministry of Housing and Works with additional charge of Ministry of Education. Lt Gen (retd) Majeed Malik has been appointed as Chairman Prime Ministers Implementation and Inspection Commission with the status of a federal minister. While all others are full ministers, Syed Asghar Shah has been inducted as a minister of state. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- HRCP disputes turnout figures in elections ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter LAHORE, Feb. 26: The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) has reiterated that its teams observation of the turnout during the Feb. 3 elections do not somehow tally with the official figures. In a Press statement issued on Tuesday, HRCP chairperson Asma Jahangir clarified that the HRCPs assessment of the elections so far remains the same as it gave out on Feb. 4. She said: It appears that there is another human rights body that has, confusingly, adopted the same initials  HRCP  as that of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. It has just published its comments on the polls. These have unfortunately widely been mistaken as ours. I wish to clarify that HRCPs assessment of the elections so far remains the same as it gave out in its Press release the following day. Our teams which toured 100 of the National Assembly constituencies and close to 200 of the provincial assemblies constituencies did report that to the extent of their initial observations the polling was orderly and according to the rules. But to confine an assessment of polling to the motions of the casting of ballots is to under-define the concept of fairness and freeness. We had pointed out that a number of other factors, such as the conduct of the caretakers, the official pronouncements during the run-up to the election, and the cases in the high courts and Supreme Court, had also apparently greatly affected the process, the HRCP chairperson concluded. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Siachen, trade should be basis of bilateral talks ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shaheen Sehbai WASHINGTON, Feb. 27: The United States on Wednesday revealed the outlines of what could be the beginning of a major negotiating process between Pakistan and India in which Kashmir may not be on top of the agenda but Siachen and trade issues are to be given top priority. "It is up to the two countries to decide how they fit Kashmir into that equation. It may be that India and Pakistan can get together and come up with some kind of negotiating process whereby the political status of Kashmir is not first on the agenda but rather Siachen is first and trade is second," Assistant Secretary of State Robin Raphel told an important seminar on Pakistan's future, its domestic, foreign and economic policies. The discussion was organised jointly by the US Institute of Peace and the Middle East Institute in Washington. The panellists held a 90-minute discussion on Pakistan's major political, economic and foreign policy problems and some very interesting observations and comments were made which could indicate how the US policy would now move vis-`-vis the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in particular and Pakistan in general. On the economic problems facing Pakistan, Ms Raphel said Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was aware how little manoeuvring room there was for his government and she was glad that Mr Sharif had decided to abide by the agreements with the IMF, disregarding advice to the contrary. "The basic problem is that Pakistan spends too much and does not collect enough revenue. The result of this is that it would be difficult for them to meet the targets set by the IMF arrangements. We are pleased to hear that Nawaz Sharif has decided to stick to the IMF arrangement and will try and increase revenues by privatisation, retiring debts and asking expatriate Pakistanis to put money into Pakistan," Ms Raphel said. She was very clear that rejection of IMF agreements would have been disastrous for Pakistan. "I don't think that would have worked and they would have run severe risk if they walked away from that IMF programme," she said. Suggesting measures that should be undertaken by the new government, the US Assistant Secretary of State said: "Starting down the road to solving Pakistan's economic problems is difficult because it needs austerity and nobody is terribly keen on that. "The intentions of Nawaz Sharif are good but he will have to work hard to sell the idea of austerity, to pay now and get later. It is a hard concept to sell," she added.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

961128 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Foreign exchange reserves cross $1 billion mark ------------------------------------------------------------------- Nasir Malick ISLAMABAD, Feb. 27: Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's debt retirement scheme is receiving enthusiastic response from the people and the foreign exchange reserves have crossed $1.0 billion, government officials said. Everyone is contributing in whatever manner he can," an official said. On Thursday, the prime minister received donations and fixed deposits worth more than Rs2 billion during the businessmen convention, which was presided over by him. The government is mostly banking on Pakistani expatriates to send money by donating or depositing $1,000 each in one of the three schemes launched by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Commerce Minister Ishaq Dar said in an interview that foreign exchange reserves stood at $1.065 billion as against $780 million which the government had inherited from the caretakers. He said in the first seven days after Nawaz Sharif took oath of his office, foreign exchange reserves increased by $100 million while in the last three days another $185 million were added to them. Commerce Minister Ishaq Dar said the government was expecting to collect at least $1.0 billion from local and expatriate Pakistanis for debt retirement fund. He said the government would endeavour to increase the foreign exchange reserves to $2 billion. Pakistan has to pay more than $1.25 billion in debt retirement this year. A government official said the proceeds from the privatisation of state-run industries would also be used for paying off the national debt. He said the previous government had not used the entire privatisation proceeds for debt retirement. "The PPP government paid off $1.0 billion in debt servicing though it could have paid more." He said the privatisation process was being geared up so that the debt could be paid off as early as possible. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Traders fear misuse of green channel ------------------------------------------------------------------- Aamir Shafaat Khan KARACHI, Feb. 26: The prices of some electronic items have come down in the local market in anticipation of their influx through the green channel, which the government had restored two days back. Dealers at the Regal Chowk contemplate further decline in prices within the next 20 days if the green channel, like previous experience, turns into a Khepia channel. They said the government this time had taken stern measures at the airports to check illegal imports but former Chairman, Pakistan Electrical and Electronic Manufacturers Association (PEEMA), A.H.A. Ahmed told Dawn the goods had started arriving into the markets. The misuse of green channel can only be curbed when the Customs department becomes strict, otherwise the unscrupulous persons will take the channel by storm, he added. It may be noted here that the prices of electronic items move both ways in the markets, depending on the activities of Khepias as well as on import duties. Mr Ahmed was of the view that the menace of smuggling through Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) and other channels could only be tackled if the government reduces the import duties. Former President, Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Haji Shafiqur Rehman in a letter to Nawaz Sharif urged him to issue orders for punishment of officials who may be found to allow the misuse of the green channel. He also urged the prime minister to fix 35 percent customs duty on the import of tea, crockery items, electronics, perfumes, small auto spare parts and spices as these items were considered preferable items for Khepias. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- State Bank spells out details ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb. 24: The State Bank of Pakistan spelled out the foreign exchange mobilisation programme announced by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Sunday evening to relieve the country of foreign debts. While deposits would be accepted as outright donations and Qarz-i-Hasna for a minimum period of two years from overseas as well as resident Pakistanis, the State Bank has announced the rate of returns on profit-bearing deposits in dollar, pound sterling and Deutsche mark of two-year, three-year, four- year and five-year. In a circular issued to all authorised dealers and all foreign exchange and investment banks holding restricted authorised dealers licences, the State Bank stated that the depositor would be entitled to receive funds in the currency in which the deposit was made and the return would be payable on a quarterly basis. The State Bank has fixed 9% annual rate on five-year dollar deposit, 8.5% on four-year dollar deposit, 8% on three-year deposit and 7.5% on two-year deposit. On pound sterling deposits, the State Bank has offered 9.75% annual rate of return on five-year deposit, 9.20% on four-year, 8.80% on three-year and 8.40% on two-year deposit. An annual rate of 7% has been offered on five-year Deutsche mark deposit, 6.30% on four-year, 5.70% on three-year and 5.10% on two-year. The SBP circular made it clear that in case of two-year deposits there would no encashment before maturity but has made provisions for premature encashment of deposits of three-year and more. Any depositor who wishes to receive the profit of his deposit in rupee has been advised to indicate it in writing to the concerned bank which will arrange for transfer of the rupee amount to a person designated by him. The deposit will be kept in the name of the depositor. At the time of placement of funds, or afterwards, another person can be designated to receive the amount in case of mishap. The circular states that all the authorised dealers have agreed to handle all remittances under this programme free of charge and commission. The circular has also mentioned procedure for the banks to record the name and address of the person who is remitting the money specifying the purpose and also the name and address of the person who would be claimant in case of mishap. Under this programme any person who remits and deposits one hundred thousand dollars (or equivalent amount of other currencies) would be issued a letter of appreciation signed by the prime minister in addition to deposit receipt. Similarly, a person who deposits one million dollar or equal amount in other currencies would be invited to receive the letter personally from the prime minister. The circular also spells out the procedure for maintaining the record of the deposits, donations and Qarz-i-Hasna in the banks and its subsequent information to the foreign exchange department of the State Bank on daily basis. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Nawaz to honour caretakers commitments ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ihtasham ul Haque THE NEWLY ELECTED Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, has assured the President that his government will abide by the commitments made by the caretakers with the IMF to combat the critical economic situation of the country. The Prime Minister held a long meeting with the President along with his economic and financial experts and said that he would continue the major economic policies of the caretakers and that he would abide by the commitments made with the IMF, disclosed the caretaker minister for commerce, Dr Zubair Ahmad Khan. He told Dawn that since the economic situation was still critical despite the many efforts made by the interim government, the new government would pursue the caretakers policies. The President had done a very good job by providing an opportunity to both the caretakers and the prime minister as well his economic team here on February 16 to discuss important economic policies and their continuation and I can tell you that the new government is equally disturbed about the state of the economy and has assured to implement economic reform programme agreed with the IMF, he stated. I can not say authoritatively that the new government would re-negotiate any agreement with the IMF because they are independent to take any decision, he added saying that the caretakers could not force anyone to continue their policies. However, he expressed his optimism that Mr Nawaz Sharif seemed serious about rehabilitating the economy and would continue the polices of the interim government. When we met in the Presidency, Shahid Javed Burki gave the briefing during which I and Dr Hafiz Pasha were also present and Mr Sharif was assisted by Mr Sartaj Aziz and Ishaq Dar and I found a realisation in them to improve things in the light of our policies as well as that of the IMF. The caretaker commerce minister who would have relinquished the charge of the ministry by the time this piece appears, said the caretakers were leaving with the hope that the new government would strengthen the policies given during the last three months to improve the economic situation. He said the President had told the meeting that he would also be readily available to advise the new government on economic issues. You know the President himself is an expert on economic and financial matters and has been giving advice to the previous government but their bad luck that they did not listen to him with the result that they are not only out of power but also being looked down upon by the people of Pakistan, he said adding that the verdict of the people in the February 3 elections should be an eye opener for the PPP if it really wants to remain in the political arena. One of the major conditionaliites of the IMF was that Pakistan would have to achieve 4 per cent GDP growth rate during 1996-97 and it had refused to compromise on it. Experts believed that it would be an uphill task for the Nawaz administration to achieve that formidable target without which things would become very difficult for him. We have no plans to re-negotiate anything with the IMF and we would sincerely be trying to achieve 4 per cent GDP growth rate, said PML Secretary-General Senator Sartaj Aziz, likely to be given the portfolio of the finance ministry. He told this correspondent that his government has set out its priorities which primarily include the removal of distortions in the economy made by the previous government. We are very conscious that we have a very hard task ahead but we will try to correct things without being sluggish and lenient, hoping that his government would be able to deliver something that would help pull the country out of what he termed  an economic mess created by the Benazir government. The IMF feels very strongly about the 4 per cent GDP growth rate, reducing inflation to single digit, restricting borrowing to a Rs 22 billion limit and making the central bank more independent specially to effectively run the commercial banks and the Development Financial Institutions (DFIs). Independent experts, though appreciating the concern of the new government about the economy, were not sure whether Mr Nawaz Sharif would be able to drastically cut the non-development budget and other unnecessary expenditures. They said that past practice showed that every successive government in Pakistan eventually succumbed to the pressure of its legislators for offering them undue benefits. Insiders said that Shahid Javed Burki had warned the new prime minister and his team on February 16 that in case the agreement with the IMF was flouted then the situation would become horrifying to the extent that no international lending agency or foreign private bank would come to our rescue. He reportedly told them that downgrading of the credit worthiness of Pakistan by Moodyss of New York had done great damage and that this must be avoided in future. In this regard, he claimed that he had persuaded another credit rating agency- Standard and Poors- not to go for any downgrading of Pakistan. Sources said that the President had also made it clear to the new government without mincing words that there would be no free of all and that he would be there to monitor the economic situation. He also explained to them the role of the Council for Defence and National Security whose main purpose he pointed out would be to ensure political stability and economic policies continuation in Pakistan. We are handing over power to the PML government with the hope that they deliver, Dr Zubair said, hoping that the economic experts of the new government would move forward for achieving economic betterment of Pakistan. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Victory carries a load of responsibility ------------------------------------------------------------------- M. Iqbal Patel PEOPLES verdict in 1997 election carried various messages particularly that the people seriously take note of the activities of the rulers. The lesson to the winning party is that the mismanagement of economy, the misuse of powers, rampant corruption and mis-use of tax payers money contributed to the debacle of PDF government and their defeat in the general elections. The people gave a massive mandate to PML(N) at a time when the nation is celebrating its golden jubilee is a reflective of the expectations of the people attached with the party that created Pakistan and is entrusted by them to rebuild the nations economy and free it from the subservience of the WB and the IMF. The PML(N), therefore, has to take some bold decisions to put the economy on the right track. The people are facing the pressure of rising prices. The average inflation rate for last three years was officially put at around 11.7 per cent but privately it was estimated at around 20 per cent. There is need to control and stabilise the prices of kitchen items particularly on a priority basis. The PDF and caretaker governments have increased the prices of gas, electricity and POL frequently in order to reduce the budget deficit to 4 per cent of GDP. The caretaker during their short tenure raised the gas charges twice aggregating 25 per cent. It was said to have been increased on the demand of IMF which is said to be insisting on bringing gas price in line with the cost of production. This justification would have been correct if the gas companies should have been running in losses. Whereas the annual report of one of the companies, SSGC showed a pre-tax profit in their latest annual report at over Rs.1 billion. Same is the case with the POL companies; PSO earned Rs 1175.62 mln profit in 1993-94. The people are panalised by raising the energy prices for the inefficiency, dishonesty and pilferages of the KESC, WAPDA, and the gas companies as is reflective from the electric bills which other charges like FAC and surcharges which include constitute more than 100 per cent of energy or charges of the bill. These companies are facing the liquidity crunch and cannot retire their foreign debts. In fact, these companies should manage to collect their dues / arrears from the politicians who are the utilities defaulters. It would help to improve their liquidity position instead of burdening the people with high unforformidable utility charges. Prices of power, gas, petroleum have a direct impact on the cost of production and transport, this burden is shifted by industries and others to the people by raising the prices of the goods and services on one hand and the export becomes incompetative on the other. Thus all economic activities are affected. The frequent increases in POL charges are reflective of the adjustment of exchange rates of Pak rupees against dollar as required under the agreement executed with the WB and IMF. These companies should, instead, adjust these exchange differences against Exchange Risk Reserves to be created out of annual profit of the company. Thereby increase in POL prices could be avoided. Manufacturing sector The export during the first three years increased on an average, by 8.9 per cent per annum against target of 12.5% while the import rose by 7.1 per ceent per annum, the cumulative deficit in the trade account therefore surpassed the plan target. Thus the economy is plagued by huge deficit and trade imbalance. Production has slowed down and more than 3000 industrial units have been closed and the industry grew by only 2.6 per cent during the last three years against the target of 10.5 per cent. The steps should be taken to start and enhance their production through initiating fiscal measures such as reducing the income tax rate at import stage, reducing the import tariff of industrial goods and by reducing the rate of general sales tax. These measures will revive the industrial activities, hence the production will increase, export will be augmented, inflation will decrease, prices will decrease and the employment opportunities will be increased. Taxation & corruption Our society is mainly faced with the problems that out of a population of more than 130 mln only 0.80 people were paying income tax, there is massive evasion of tax and the tax collectors remained corrupt. Thus there is a need to widen the tax net, reinforce equity by widening the base of direct taxation bringing farm income into tax net which was estimated to fetch Rs 20.0 billion. All the unnecessary exemptions should be eliminated, discrimination among tax payers should be abolished and the salary income of public representatives and of the government employees should be made taxable at par with tax payers of the corporate sector. The number of tax payers should be enhanced by encouraging new comers by introducing a long-term at least for three years liberal self-assessment scheme and other simplified procedures and systems. Transparency International has labelled Pakistan the most corrupt nation in Asia. The corruption is the leakage where form the tax revenue is flowed out. The tax evasion and corruption in the tax officials are due to vast discretionary powers vested with them under the income tax law. Therefore these discretionary pow3rs of the tax officials should be minimised and be made subject to check and balances which will help to minimise the tax evasion and corruption. it is estimated that the prevailing scale of tax evasion is to the tune of Rs 120 billion annually and scale of corruption once about a decade ago was estimated by then Finance Minister to cost exchequer at Rs 2.0 billion. More revenue can be collected through a crusade against corruption rather than imposing high rate of taxation. High tax rate elude the government efforts to raise the revenue / GDP ratio. The maximum tax rates in most countries of Far East are below 35 per cent as against the average of 65 peer cent in Pakistan. This situation suggests to reduce tax rate which will yield high saving rate and tax revenue too. Therefore restructuring the tax system which plugged off these leakages is a need of the time which will increase the number of tax payers and will enhance tax revenue collection as per target plan of the government. A considerable money of Rs 135 billion is stucked up with the defaulters of bank loans. A recovery process thereof should be started. The government should require the individual banks to negotiate the matter with their clients and to work out a compromised arrangement with them rescheduling their outstanding loans and get the compromise sanctioned from the court as provided under Section 284 of the Companies Ordinance 1984. This way the defaulters will find it easy to repay their outstanding loans. The banks thus will receive money. it will reduce the cost of credit which hitherto have increased to over 20 per cent. Recovery of bank loans, will increase the capacity of banks to give funds for the growth of industry which will help in reviving economic activities. Further, the government should look into the huge bank loans amounting to Rs 9.78 billion which were not written off by the influential during 1986- 96 period. The government should speed up privatisation through the process of stock exchanges. It should also disinvest the shares held by it in the banks and DFIs like MCB, ABL, PICIC, BEL and HBCCI. These measures will broaden the base of stock exchange and will bring stability. The money so generated through privatisation of units and disinvestment of share of banks should be utilised in the retirement of foreign debts: so as to reduce the debts service charges. This will also infuse confidence of the donors. The economy is plagued by huge foreign debts of some $30 billion which made our nation a subservieent to WB and IMF who dictates us their terms and interfere in governance of our economy. It, therefore, should be urgent priority to retire these debts as soon as possible. Their unrealistic prescriptions do not suit to our requirement and instead it makes it still worse. The living examples are the deficit target set by them at 4% of GDP, generation of revenue of Rs 41 bln through additional taxes in the budget of 1996-97 to meet their conditionalities which proved a blow to our economy, similarly imposing of GST that too at high rate also have adversely affected our economy. The government should approach the WB and IMF to re-negotiate the deficit / GDP ratio higher than 4 per cent and to grant moratorium on servicing of foreign debts at least for three years so that resources could be made available to improve social services and revamp the infrastructure facilities needed to boost national economy. A big piece of the cake is eaten up in paying of debt service charges and military expenditures which have damaging effect on the rest of economy. Hence efforts should be made to retire the debts speedily. Further our foreign policy should be reviewed to have better relations with our neighbours, so as the expenditures on defence could be reduced which at present accounts for around 6 per cent of the GDP against development expenditures which has fallen from 7.7 per cent to less than 5 per cent of GDP upto year 1995-96. The defence expenditures are exceptionally free from scrutiny or audit. The tax payers are deprived from their right to know the justification of such huge expenditures. Serious efforts be made to lessen the burden on the exchequer by cutting down the number of miniseries, divisions and departments in both, the federal and provincial governments. This would improve save about Rs 35 billion. The savings can if certain measures are undertaken to reduce the number of employees such as attractive golden hand-shake and early retirement schemes by designed for the employees would attract large number of employees out of government service. Similarly a freeze should be clamped down on all promotions, increments and recruitments of the government employees. These measures sound a bit harsh but will help economy and the country. Last but not least government should cut their lavish official expenditures such as on foreign medical treatment, foreign trips, haj, mra with large entourages, form jumbo cabinets etc. The measures suggested above would reduce the budgetary crises and place at the disposal of the government substantial resources which could be utilised to revive industrial activities in the country and would reduce budget deficit to four per cent. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sharifs uphill task to reduce prices ------------------------------------------------------------------- Sultan Ahmed PRIME MINISTER Nawaz Sharif wants not only to hold down the soaring prices in an environment of sustained high inflation but also bring down the prices of essential goods for the common man significantly. He has identified specifically, wheat flour, sugar, and vegetable ghee, the prices of which rose sharply in recent weeks following maldistribution, storage and administrative hiccups and dishonest business practices. He began working on such a drive even before he was sworn in. His younger brother, Shahbaz Sharif, had a meeting with businessmen immediately after the election and pleaded with them to help bring down prices of essential goods. You voted us into power, and now help us bring down the prices, he said. While various figures of price reduction sought or desired have been mentioned, the minimum is a reduction of one rupee for wheat flour, two rupees for sugar and three rupees for vegetable oil per kilo. Vigorous efforts are already underway to bring atta prices down by one rupee per kilo with which the flour millers are ready to cooperate more or less or with demands of their own to make the concession real. What is significant is that a substantial part of these items are imported and the import continues with 2.4 million tonnes of wheat imports alone due this year. Sugar import also continues as its production this year is not expected to exceed 2.6 million tonnes which will be better than last years 2.47 million tonnes but far less than the 1995-96 output of 3 million tonnes. The demand of sugar growers for exorbitant prices up to Rs 50 per 40 kilogramme instead of less than a half of that fixed by the government is bedevilling sugar production and delaying full sugar output. Overall food prices in the world are now 1.5 per cent less than last year in dollars and less than 8 per cent in sterling, but 7 per cent more than last month in dollars and 8.8 per cent more than last month in sterling. So the world price situation is better than last years particularly when the imports are done in sterling. In his earnestness to fulfil his electoral commitment, Mr Sharif may want to subsidise these items as their prices have risen sharply in recent months in Pakistan due to the 17 per cent devaluation of the rupee carried out last year and the higher cost of production, transportation, distribution and sale. But that is taboo as far as the IMF and the World Bank are concerned. And restrictions in that area are so rigid that even the Utility Stores were restrained from selling their essential items which are usually formally identified and listed by the government, that was a major departure from the pattern followed at concessional rates in previous Ramazan. So the future of Utility Stores is in serious doubt. Not only does the IMF, which wants to bring down the budget deficit to 4 per cent this year and to 3 per cent next year, it wants all subsidies to go as also does the World Bank, whose senior vice- president is Mr Shahid Javed Burki, and who holds all subsidies as a dirty word in public finance. When World Bank President J.D. Wolfensohn was in India recently, he was questioned by the Press, very critically, about his opposition to food subsidies. He said he was opposed to subsidies in the US and in Europe and so he would be opposed to subsidies in India too as they would make the Indian economy eventually non-competitive. When he opposed food subsidies he was also arguing for better returns to the farmers. But subsidies overall form a minuscule part of public expenditure. Food subsidies this year are to be only Rs 6 billion compared to Rs 7.55 billion last year. The World Bank has mounted a campaign in Pakistan to do away with the subsidies on imported wheat which enables the government to sell it in Pakistan at prices at which local wheat is sold. It sponsored a seminar of agricultural experts through the Agricultural Prices Commission earlier to evolve a consensus on that. Major farmlords and some top bureaucrats with large farms of their own supported the move and argued they should be paid world prices for their wheat, in fact inclusive of the landed cost of imported wheat which covers shipping and insurance charges. Currently Pakistanis are forced to pay higher prices for all imported items because of the heavy devaluation of the rupee and also high prices for vegetables in this winter when normally vegetable prices crash, particularly winter vegetables. Some of the vegetables and fruits are exported but the export earnings are very small compared with the stiff prices Pakistanis have been paying for vegetables. Fish prices have skyrocketed and better quality fish is scarce and too expensive. Here again we are told of fish exports but again the import earnings are very small. The dichotomy in both the areas persist. If the government cannot subsidise food prices and even the Utility Stores cannot be helpful in this area, and prices in Friday and Tuesday Bazaars too have been high, how does Mr Nawaz Sharif fulfil his commitment to the masses to reduce prices of essential items? As they rejoice over his return to office he can ask the traders to reduce their profits and lower prices. He has to ask the wholesalers, middlemen, distributors and retailers to reduce their prices as their profit margin is very large. The difference between the prices at the Sabzi Mandi and at the retailers end can be as much as 200 per cent. Pakistani businessmen have the highest profit margin in South Asia, Indian businessmen on the other hand rely on larger turn-over for their profits. He could persuade the transporters also to reduce their profits. After all he has helped them with thousands of trucks, buses, Suzukis, taxis and other form of transport at vastly reduced prices, and he can exhort them to respond to his call so that he can help them more later. Of course, they will argue that both the Benazir government and the caretakers have together increased petrol prices within six months by 18 per cent, kerosene prices by 34 per cent, high speed oil by 34 and light diesel 42 per cent respectively and furnace oil by 46 per cent. The caretaker government came up on February 4 with some token reductions as world prices of oil have fallen by 10 per cent but the price of petrol was not reduced at all. If Mr Sharif wants the cooperation of businessmen and transporters in reducing prices, he needs to bring down POL prices in line with the falling world prices by spring. The government should also realise that when the prices of any items rises, hoarding starts in anticipation of still higher prices, which comes to pass. In the process, adulteration and use of short weights and measures by traders, particularly the retailers, become common. Mr Sartaj Aziz says the Benazir government focused on demand management or demand reduction by raising taxes and duties and increasing interest rates but the new government will give more attention to the supply side. On the physical side of demand reduction Mr Sharif wants small wedding parties and less social ostentation. He deplores the practice of not only politicians but also officers with apparent small incomes giving wedding dinners for thousands of guests. Success in curtailing such ostentation depends on the extent to which public figures will stay away from such functions and enquire into the sources of income of the officers indulging in such excesses. Prices can come down instead of the Sensitive Price Index hitting 15 per cent and consumer price index 13 per cent officially, and far more actually, if agricultural production goes up along with industrial output. China which had a 26 per cent inflation two years ago has a 6.6 per cent inflation rate today because of sustained economic growth which is 9.9 per cent now and will be 10.5 per cent in 1997. Agricultural output went up in 1996 by 5.1 per cent and industrial production by 20.4 per cent. Food grains last year registered a record output of 480 million tonnes and meat and fisheries output went up by 10 per cent. And the Chinese yuan has come up from 8.48 to a dollar two years ago to 8.29 now, the same as in February last year, making imports, cheaper unlike us who have to pay 30 per cent more. Indian example The same has happened in India where inflation has come down from 12.2 per cent last year to 8.5 per cent now because of the bumper harvests its exportable sugar and cotton, industrial growth of 9.9 per cent and reduction in the interest rate on short term lending from 12.97 per cent to 7.5 per cent now. In Pakistan, prices have been rising as a result of a large mix of official policies and irrational official steps. They include constant increase in agricultural support prices, rise in taxes and increase in their variety, rise in cost of production due to increase in power, gas and water rates, soaring cost of transportation, high interest rates, frequent devaluation of the rupee which pushed up the cost of imports and the high cost of pervasive corruption and frequent strikes and shut-downs. Mr Nawaz Sharif has to address all these problems almost simultaneously if prices have to come down not on a tactical basis or for a short time but on a lasting basis and stay that way. All that has to begin with large cuts in official expenditure and an insistent drive against corruption, particularly in the taxation services which is too deeply infected. If revenues increase and expenditure goes down, the government need not foul up the consumer economy with various taxation, administrative and monetary measures which have bogged down the economy and reduced large scale industrial growth to a mere 2.6 per cent over the last three years, which is the source of many of our fiscal and monetary problems and consumer tears. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Pakistans post-election economic prospects ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Mahnaz Fatima THE EMERGING economic and political scenario thus far only serves to confirm the various predictions made through these columns by this writer during the caretaker interlude. The question raised earlier by many as to how the caretakers planned to provide continuity to their economic policies in the event of scheduled elections, was answered quickly as soon as the CDNS was formed. Further, several other developments served to confirm the Presidents and the caretakers resolve to provide continuity. One such notable move was the National Finance Commission (NFC) award which needs to be dwelt upon as it also serves to illustrate another type of continuity that might also be provided to the authoritarian and apathetic style of economic governance we have been experiencing since the Burki- Pasha team took over in November 1996. The caretakers moved with great haste to finalise the NFC award before the induction of elected representatives when, according to the informed, the NFC award can only be given by elected representatives of the people, as per the Constitution of Pakistan. It seems that, in their exuberance, the efficiency-obsessed classical economists even ignored the key constitutionality requirement, leave alone the success that they might have achieved in somehow silencing the voices of dissent. And, knowing the general levels of patriotism, such enthusiasm could emanate only from a reasonable assurance of continuity not only of their policies but also of themselves. Even more audacious was the announcement of the NFC award on January 13, 1997, by the Pasha-Burki team contrary to the earlier indication that the award would be signed by the President after conferring with the elected government. So, this little act of courtesy to the elected government was also decided against. The above was done, in the aftermath of elections, amidst news reports regarding Mr Burkis desire and assurance that the new government would continue with caretakers economic policies which were nothing but a total submission to IMF. This was followed by PML(N) former finance minister Mr Sartaj Azizs quick confirmation of continuation with the IMFs package. Further, there was an unprecedented lag between the holding of elections and formation of government ostensibly for the submission of election expenditure statements. An attempt was, perhaps, made by the caretakers to fruitfully utilise the lag to influence decision viz-a-viz key cabinet positions. So, in addition to a quick report on the portfolios of foreign affairs and defence, continuity was also reportedly confirmed for Dr Hafiz Pasha, who held the position of caretaker Deputy-Chairman, Planning Commission. When in office, both Mr. Burki and Dr. Pasha also symbolise the practice of classical economic thought in the country. So, the intent of their continuity was of great symbolic significance as it first means continuity to the IMF package as also ardently desired by the President himself. Secondly, knowing their position in office, their continuity also symbolises the continuity of the extreme classical world view of economics, generally oblivious to Third World constraints but occasionally garnished with marginal social sector concerns for reasons of palatability. faith in price-mechanism and the magic of the marketplace that could surpass the most coercive practices; ruthless preoccupation with efficiency; grossly overriding concerns for equitable distribution of income and resources; non-interference by the government that could approach a virtual abdication of government responsibility to the people; and a complete apathy to popular economic opinion from a Third World perspective marking a ruthless arrogance in style and deeds. Since Mr. Burki was asked to continue, the intent appears to be in the direction of the continuation of classical economic thought. It is little wonder then that we see Mr Sartaj Azizs partially refreshing statements viz-e-viz the IMFs package and targets followed by almost nervous denials of the reported statements. It should then be little surprise that the crucial NFC award was announced quickly before making any attempt whatsoever to accommodate the concerns of the elected representatives of the people of Pakistan. Behind this uncalled for haste is yet another manifestation of conservative thought and elite arrogance that the educated can think and act better than the people or the masses in conservative terminology. This thought, if allowed to prevail, will damage liberal democratic values even before they begin to spread meaningfully in the country. Helpless minister? As a voter, one would, therefore, like to know if Mr Sartaj Aziz is being inducted as the finance minister with his hands tied at the back, with a Presidents man poised to serve as de-facto finance minister. Will the voters of this country even be allowed a chance to get a real glimpse of PML(N)s economic agenda in action whose central theme is economic self-reliance? Or, will PML(N) be facing the brunt of an economic die that has already been cast in the fashion of textbook classical economics that failed to show results even in the First World where governments intervened heavily in public interest until such time that there was little need to do so. If the above is true, then the elected government will virtually be a captured one. As a voter, one would then like to see the real finance minister stand up and take charge so that he is accountable before the people or can get due credit if he manages to turn the economy around. If the above argument is contended by our elected representatives and if the elected representatives choose to continue to repose faith in the caretaker economic policies; then too, one would be justified in urging the elected government to let the continuing heir of the caretaker economic legacy wear the coveted hat of the countrys finance minister. In addition, our elected representatives confidence in the caretaker economic policies would make one wonder even more about the post-election economic prospects of Pakistan. By now, the true ills of Pakistans economy are known to all and sundry. To recapitulate, we have an inflated defence expenditure that is taboo to even talk about publicly by the key decision makers or heads might roll. Since even lay persons know about this huge burden, could one imagine that Mr Burki would underestimate its effect on the economy in his honest and free moments? However, Mr Burkis evasive responses, while in office, served to demonstrate the impotence of key decision makers as far as defence expenditure trimming/ reduction is concerned. In fact, this is one expenditure that is justified by all office seekers, politicians or otherwise, or else they cannot even think of continuing. All future governments are expected to remain ineffective in this regard unless the academics who may be holding ministerial offices in Islamabad can pick up courage to begin to educate our Generals and the foreign office about it. Or, an unencumbered Mr Burki back in Washington would use his good offices to make it yet another IMF conditionality for Pakistan to adhere to which would be most welcome. Second, there is a high debt-servicing burden which the conservative economic thought is trying to shed selling off the states profitable concerns. If at all, this might prove to be a one-time remedy unless we quickly develop internal resource generation capability to not only compensate for lost government revenues from state enterprises but to also prevent incurring of debt in future when we will be left with no state assets to fall back on. A further assumption of the conservative economic thought is that private enterprise, once unleashed, will work wonders. In theory, it should show good results, if not wonders, only if the First World behaviour patterns can be replicated in Pakistan. The private business behaviour pattern in Pakistan has, however, been generally characterised with under-reporting incomes for tax purposes, defaulting on loans, risk averse business practices, and siphoning away of declared profits instead of reinvesting in business and industry in the country. The quick gains culture has unleashed business enterprise in a distorted manner with the result that various government incentives and business/industry friendly policies led to the development of businessmen and tycoons, in all times, and to a retarded growth of business and industry in the country which is indeed paradoxical. One hopes that this is not the type of business enterprise symbolised by Nawaz Sharif that refuses to agree to give due returns to the country. If it does, then we might be in for yet another era wherein the business classes will eat into the very vitals of the countrys economy with the businessmen becoming richer and the business/industry becoming poorer making it an almost zero sum game. And, this is most likely to happen should the agricultural sector continue to avoid their equitable income tax payment and continues to enjoy a preferential treatment. Unless the major sectors of the economy begin to give their due share equitably, we will remain caught in a vicious circle. Virtuous cycle If history does not repeat itself, and a virtuous cycle is developed, even then the gains might never reach the people due to an iniquitous distribution of assets and means of production that we are beginning yet another journey with, if at all it is a new beginning. Without definite policy intervention to redistribute assets before growth, that is, land reforms and broad-based business ownership; national income will continue to be distributed most inequitably with social unrest, agitation, and anger simpering beneath the surface and justifiably so. So, for our peculiar problems, classical or neo-classical economics has little or no solutions. On the contrary, it might only serve to strengthen the above coalition of major interests that would continue to grab major shares of the pie thus working against the interest of the people, of the countrys economy, and of the long term interest of the country itself. The need of the hour is to provide teeth to the economy and not just keep it afloat through a life-jacket of cosmetic applications to the national accounts that is the second-best alternative that the classical economists- cum-public finance experts propose for the country. At best, this approach can only delay the crisis and might even aggravate long-run survival prospects as irresponsible economic ways and/or iniquitous distribution of income will be allowed even more time to perpetuate. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970301 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Links to be forged with overseas stock markets ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb 28: The government is planning to adopt measures which will attract maximum equity participation in Pakistani companies from Japanese investors by creating congenial atmosphere based on confidence-building efforts and close contacts between the stock exchanges of the two countries. For attracting maximum equity participation from Japanese investors in listed companies as well as new floatations of shares from local companies, the government would first like to see that Pakistani stock exchanges are formally recognized by their Japanese counterparts. The official sources said that to begin with, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) would be asked to seek formal recognition from the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSK) for which it had been advised to take the assistance of the Japanese Securities Dealers Association (JSDA). Besides, these sources said, leading Pakistani dealers and brokerage houses having international affiliations would also be asked to forge links with major Japanese securities and seek their collaboration and assistance in attracting equity participations in Pakistani companies. The government is also approaching local stock exchanges asking them to organize a number of seminars in Japan so that awareness is created about Pakistan in general, its economy and its stock markets. These sources said that newly emerging Asian Tigers like Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, even Singapore organized such seminars which helped to attract participation of potential portfolio investors from Japan and other developed countries. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 961128 ------------------------------------------------------------------- KSE index loses 43 points, fresh sell-off predicted ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb. 27: Massive selling in Hub-Power and PTC vouchers pulled the KSE index below the psychological barrier of 1,700 points. The loss of about 43 points in a session at 1,699 was an enormous one. But they failed to pinpoint specific reasons behind the snap reaction.. Most of the investment shares, notably banks, are eroding major portion of gains netted after the PML victory in elections and are apparently heading towards their pre-reaction levels. Insurance shares followed them, although Adamjee Insurance despite late selling managed to hold on to its early gains and so did New Jubilee Insurance and some others. Textile shares, however, evoked good interest under the lead of Burewala and Dawood Cotton after the announcement of good dividend and so were some others including Kohinoor Spinning and Nishat Mills. Synthetic shares were actively traded under the lead of Dewan Salman, Dhan Fibre and Ibrahim Fibre and so did most of sugar shares after good dividend announcements by leading among them. Cement shares were actively traded both ways, but leading among them ran into selling at the higher levels and ended lower, big losers among them being Chakwal, Cherat and Maple Leaf Cement. An interim dividend of 30% from PSO and 35% from Shell Pakistan triggered heavy buying in both the shares but late selling allowed them to finish with clipped gains. Electrical shares, which rose sharply after the news of ban on luxury items, came in for selling later and so did leading shares such as Engro Chemicals, Fauji Fertiliser, Lever Brothers and some others. Singer Pakistan, Reckitt and Colman, Hinopak Motors, BOC Pakistan, Ghandhara Nissan and Dawood Hercules among the MNCs showed good rallies on active short-covering. Trading volume showed a fresh modest increase at 58.649 million shares from the previous 56.814 million shares, although a half of which went to the credit of Hub-Power and PTC vouchers. Hub-Power again topped the list of most actives, sharply lower by Rs 1.05 on 13.700m shares, followed by PTC vouchers, easy 70 paisa on 12m, ICI Pakistan, lower 55 paisa on 9.500m, Dewan Salman, up 50 paisa on 6.500m, and Fauji Cement, lower 35 paisa on 3.130m shares. Other actively traded shares were led by FFC-Jordan Fertiliser, off 35 paisa on 0.840m shares, followed by Dhan Fibre, easy 35 paisa 0.897m, Sui Northern Gas, easy 35 paisa on 0.505m, and Japan Power, lower 15 paisa on 0.313m shares. There were 389 actives out of which 258 shares fell, 72 rose with 59 holding on to the last levels. DIVIDEND: Pakistan State Oil Company (PSO), interim 30%, Cherat Paper, 30% interim, Sakrand Sugar, bonus shares 20%, Shahtaj Sugar, cash 15%, Attock Refinery, interim 120%, and Fazal Cloth, cash 10%. ------------------------------------------------------------------- SUBSCRIBE TO HERALD TODAY ! ------------------------------------------------------------------- Every month the Herald captures the issues, the pace and the action, shaping events across Pakistan's lively, fast-moving current affairs spectrum. Subscribe to Herald and get the whole story. Annual Subscription Rates : Latin America & Caribbean US$ 93 Rs. 2,700 North America & Australasia US$ 93 Rs. 2,700 Africa, East Asia Europe & UK US$ 63 Rs. 1,824 Middle East, Indian Sub-Continent & CAS US$ 63 Rs. 1,824 Please send the following information : Payments (payable to Herald) can be by crossed cheque (for Pakistani Rupees), or by demand draft drawn on a bank in New York, NY (for US Dollars). 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EDITORIALS & FEATURES

970221 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Toil and tears ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ardeshir Cowasjee THE last population census was held in 1981. The next should have been held in 1991, but was not. The true and changed figures would have suited neither the party in power nor the party in opposition, as they would have redefined most of the countrys constituencies and reflected the shift of population from the rural to the urban areas. Now, no figure, no statistics can be relied upon. It can only be estimated that the population of this country is close to 140 million, of which 80 per cent are kept illiterate and ignorant to suit the purposes of their various rulers. It was on this basis that the government appealed to the electorate yet again on February 3. The illiterate people voted in their representives by ticking their chosen symbol. Nawaz and his men won, leaving Benazir and her troupe far, far behind. The usual international observers came and made the usual satisfactory noises. The winners claim the elections were free and fair; the losers claim the polls were rigged. The people should be satisfied. These elections were as fair and free as any elections ever have been in our country, or will be for a long time to come. On Monday, February 17, Nawaz was voted in by 177 members as leader of the house and prime minister. His opponent, PPP loyalist Aftab Shahban Mirani, managed 16 votes. There was one abstention, Independent Asghar Khan of Bhakkar (alias Halaku Khan), a former police officer of the Dirty Tricks Brigade, now an honourable member who, knowing well how clean each side is, refused to vote for either. Halaku I have known since 1972, then a dreaded policeman who was sent to Karachi by Bhutto to question me. Bhutto was desperately trying to find some evidence against Altaf Gauhar who had been arrested on a trumped-up charge and jailed. Halaku, quite happy to call a machine gun a gun machine, ordered his sidekick to pick up Cowasjee Ardeshir, also bearded, also a Parsi. This unfortunate man, totally ignorant of what was going on, was taken to the police station and questioned late into the night, until at last Halaku realising he had the wrong man, arrested me, the machine gun, and released him, the gun machine. Halaku has done well for himself, but not half as well as the Lahore Chaudhrys, sons and relatives of Chaudhry Zahur Elahi, his contemporary in the lucrative police service. Last year when he called on me (I was on a visit to Lahore), he arrived in a chauffeur-driven spanking new Mercedes escorted by his personal armed bodyguard. He was happy with life and said he had then two of his relatives deputising for him, sitting as elected members in the Punjab Assembly. The National Assembly has so far done well for itself. It could not have chosen a better, a more flexible, and more accommodating man as Speaker than Ilahi Bakhsh Soomro, who was unanimously elected. Ilahi Bakhsh and I have known each other since 1943 when we both read science at the Dayaram Jethmal Sind College, Karachi. Later he moved to the Nadirshaw Eduljee Dinshaw Engineering College to do his BE, and then went off to America to do his M.Sc from Columbia Polytechnic. In 1951, it was Illoo who helped arrange for our mutual friend Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to be married to his second wife Nusrat, much against the will and wishes of father Shahnawaz and his family. Illoo produced a Maulvi and the two were wedded very privately, with only Karamdad Junejo and Ilahi Bakhsh standing by on Zulfikars side and father Sabunchi with Nusrat. Illoo joined the Sindh government engineering service in 1952. From 1966 to 1969 he was principal of his old college, which he managed to raise to university status, transforming it into the NED University of Engineering and Technology. In 1970, much to Zulfikar Bhuttos annoyance, Illoos father, Maula Bakhsh, won against the PPP candidate and was elected from Shikarpur. So, as soon as he assumed power at the end of 1971 Bhutto sacked the son. The charge: inefficiency and corruption. In 1973, Ilahi Bakhsh was jailed by Bhutto on a trumped-up charge of having murdered a man who he had never met. His family industries were also destroyed. In 1985, he almost became prime minister of Pakistan when Zia was forming his government, but fate eluded him and Pagaras chosen Mohammed Khan Junejo was given the plum, and Illoo a ministership. When democracy dawned, he stood from Jacobabad and was elected to the National Assembly. In the last round, in 1993, he was defeated. Somewhere around 1994-95, Ilahi Bakhsh emerged as a senior, mature politician. Sitting now on the high chair, he must take care of and preserve the human dignity of the members who sit in his House. He should direct his gaze towards Member Nusrat Bhutto. Our erstwhile friend is suffering from Alzheimers and is not fully compos mentis. Iloo obviously cannot take up the matter with Nusrat, but he can persuade Member Born-to-Rule Benazir to stop using her mother. Taking off from a fathers grave is excusable, but manipulating an ailing mother is beyond the bounds of decency. Nusrat has paid more than her price for being a member of that Born-to-Rule family. She has seen her husband hanged, her younger son die in mysterious circumstances from a drug overdose, and her elder son gunned down by the police on the road outside his own house during the regime of her daughter. One of her two sons-in-law is in jail on a murder charge and the other is out on bail on another murder charge. As for the new ringmaster, Nawaz, by now he must find himself walking a slack rope without either a pole to balance him or anyone handy to take up the slack. The ordinary citizen cannot afford the luxury of being a party to what he is likely to do, but he could write for Nawaz the speech he might give at the inaugural session of our latest National Assembly: My dear countrymen, my fellow travellers, my brothers, my sisters, my supporters, my opponents: I stand before you as your leader. My aim is to save this country, bankrupted by the excesses of the last three democratic governments  two of Benazir and one of mine. The President said that Benazir and her husband have robbed you, the people, of $1.5 billion, of which there is no proof. I must declare that my family, my friends and myself have been accused of robbing you, the people, of the lesser sum of $1 billion, of which there is also no proof. However, I have vowed that my new government will not victimise anyone, friend or enemy, but at the same time will continue the process of accountability, barely started, and will spare no one, not even the President or my talented brother, Shahbaz. Cases in court against us and the Chaudhrys which have been adjourned for good reason will not be withdrawan. The President has committed a gross indiscretion. Knowing how broke we are, just before Eid this month, he chose to fly in a 200-seater Boeing 707 to perform Umra at your expense. Had he felt that it was below his dignity to travel by PIA, or Saudia as I did, he could have arranged to charter a Tiger Moth. Vain pomp and glory we can no longer afford. I hold him accountable and will be asking him to make good our loss. In the interests of open government I will make the issue public. Following Mr Jinnah, who said in his inaugural speech that his first priority was to maintain law and order, my government will ensure the safety of life and property and will take action against those responsible for the political extra-judicial killings. The culprits will be found and punished, as will the killers of Editor Salahuddin, whose heirs suspect that it was the MQM that had him murdered, of Lawyer Nizam Ahmed and his son who it is suspected were murdered by the PPP, and the killers of Mir Murtaza, the beloved brother of our former prime minister. Congratulating me in the Assembly on February 17, Benazir seemingly said that the goose that lays the golden eggs is now on a life-support system, the eggs broken and scrambled. Let us now unscramble them. The task is onerous but with help I can succeed. To work is a basic human need, which maxim we must heed and work harder. Whatever I will do on the economic front will of necessity be harsh, stringent and incisive. The bitter pill will have to be swallowed for many a long year. Not wishing to emulate Churchill, I offer you nothing but sweat, toil and tears. Again, not wishing to emulate Garibaldi, I say to anyone who loves his country: Follow me. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970301 ------------------------------------------------------------------- The high cost of intelligence ------------------------------------------------------------------- Mazdak ON 5 November last year, the surprising thing was not that Benazir Bhuttos government was dismissed, but that the ex-prime minister was surprised by the Presidents action. Considering that she had pumped in billions into the Intelligence Bureaus already-swollen budget, one would have thought she would have detailed assessments of Mr Legharis plans and timetable. Presumably, the IB would also have advised her on how to prevent her administrations premature demise. Indeed, she was just as stunned when she was sacked in 1990. In both cases, the rest of us could see what was coming without recourse to what passes as intelligence reports in Pakistan. One of the many items on the presidential charge-sheet against the Bhutto government was that the IB was tapping telephones on an unprecedented scale. Hundreds of tapes are said to have been recovered on which the conversations of the mightiest in the land have been recorded for posterity. Masud Sharif, the agencys director, has stated in court that he ordered this massive bugging operation on his own initiative. Maybe so, although this is not a very flattering comment on Benazir Bhuttos control on an agency which reported directly to her. Whatever the truth of the matter, the fact remains that this vast intelligence-gathering operation was only possible due to the increased resources (i.e., our tax money) made available to the IB by the previous government. The only reason for this expansion was to keep a closer eye on political opponents, and where necessary, to coerce them. Putting aside the morality of the whole exercise, the fact is that ultimately, the IB failed in its mission. When push came to shove, Masud Sharif and his army of spooks could not warn their boss of her impending ouster. This is true in varying degrees of virtually all governments and all intelligence agencies. In fact, Pakistans history is littered with intelligence failures. And yet, successive rulers have pinned their hopes for survival on amoral and ambitious spymasters who have convinced their masters that they will ensure their political supremacy indefinitely. However, when the crunch came  as it has all too often in our chequered history  these agencies and their chiefs proved to be frail reeds. From Liaquat Ali Khans assassination to the anti-Ayub movement; and from the PNA pahya-jam to the proliferation of ethnic and sectarian terrorism, our intelligence agencies have few successes to boast of. In 1965 when the Indian army attacked Lahore, we were caught completely by surprise. The one major operation that was a qualified success was the ISIs handling of the Afghan war, but that was in partnership with the CIA, and was more in the nature of covert warfare than an intelligence-gathering exercise. Also, the ISI lost its bearings once the Soviets withdrew and ended up by forever backing the wrong horse in the Afghan power struggle. So why do our rulers continue pumping money into the black hole of spying? Clearly, they seem to lack confidence in democratic institutions and their own popularity. Indeed, as soon as they come into power, they forget about their party workers and start relying on the bureaucracy. In line with this shift comes an increasing dependency on intelligence agencies which, for their part, start spinning all kinds of conspiracy theories to strengthen their control over paranoid rulers. The Benazir government set some kind of record in lavishing resources on the IB which was expanded dramatically to take it down to the tehsil level. All kinds of sophisticated bugging equipment was ordered, but ultimately, none of this proved to be enough. The reason why our intelligence agencies have such a dismal track record is the quality of manpower they deploy. A couple of years ago, the UN was recruiting police officers for contract appointments in Bosnia. Almost all the officers of the elite police service of Pakistan who tried for these assignments flunked the English test; and most of the ones who made it to Bosnia then failed the driving test and ended up doing desk jobs. And this is the officer class who man some of the most senior positions in IB and the FIA. The IQ and educational level among the rank and file can easily be imagined. While these people are capable of following and bugging the governments political opponents and other such enemies of the state, they cannot meaningfully analyse the vast amounts of data they gather. The most difficult and creative aspect of intelligence work is to sift through facts and conjecture and come up with accurate forecasts. This is an area our operatives are seriously lacking in. One reason, of course, is that they do not want to be the bearers of bad news. The products of a society of sycophants, they try and insulate their masters from the real world by controlling the information they have access to. They are also aware that if they paint too many gloomy scenarios, they may easily be replaced by people who will put a rosier gloss on depressing news. General Durranis list of politicians who were on the ISI payroll in the 1990 elections shocked nobody, just as General Begs confession that 140 million rupees were funnelled from Mehran Bank to the presidents election cell has scarcely caused a raised eyebrow. In most other countries, heads would have rolled, but we are so used to the armys role in politics that instead of trying politicians who accept such tainted funds, we elect them to high office. Indeed, the whole scandal was not even an issue in the recent elections. One reason the entire accountability exercise was such a resounding failure under the caretaker government was the FIAs inability to deliver. Despite a wealth of information about sundry scams, none of the corrupt politicians and bureaucrats have been charged with the serious financial irregularities we know them to be guilty of. The few sharks who were arrested are free on bail, while several small fry are languishing in jail because they couldnt afford to pay off their investigators. Many witnesses to financial scandals have not come forward to give evidence because they fear they would get shaken down by the FIA. It is high time the entire network of civilian and military agencies was appraised by subjecting it to a cost-benefit analysis. By now, most politicians in and out of power have been subjected to the attentions of one or another of these organisations; they have also seen the quality of their output. It is time that we put some intelligence into our intelligence agencies and removed the flab. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970223 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Big Brother ------------------------------------------------------------------- Omar Kureishi CAN a news-item be both amusing and menacing? I suppose it would depend on the disposition of the reader, the general outlook he or she brings to life. Sometimes that which is meant to be sinister turns out to be comical and that which was meant to be comical is actually intended to be threatening. Thus the news-item creeded by APP, and therefore bearing an official stamp of approval, about the presence of a multitude of big brothers in the Parliament House on the day when Nawaz Sharif was sworn in as prime minister was prominently displayed by the newspapers, the prominent display constituting its own displeasure. The news-items lead paragraph says it all: There were all there. The eyes and ears of the government. There were more men of the intelligence agencies in the Parliament House than there were MNAs as election of the Leader of the House was in process. The report adds that Parliament was literally swarming with unknown people of sensitive agencies who stood guard at every nook and corner of the building. Their presence was also felt by Shahid Khakan Abbasi who brought it to the attention of the Speaker Ilahi Bakash Soomro. My reaction to this news-item was one of weariness. Some things never change, particularly a mind-set. There is, probably, a standard operating procedure that is automatically activated given a certain set of circumstances. It would be interesting to know how far this standard operating procedure dates back and whether anyone has seen fit to change it or, at least, to update it. All rules and regulations and procedures must have flexibility in them. The question that needs to be asked is what was the specific purpose or the reason to have these swarms of people standing guard at every nook and corner of Parliament? Was it surveillance? Or was it a form of intimidation? I have always maintained that unlike justice which should not only be done but seen to be done, security or intelligence-gathering must be done but not be seen to be done. As they say in spy novels, if an agents cover is blown, he ceases to have any utility. Or to give a more current example, if you know your phone is tapped, you are hardly likely to give out the sort of information for which a bug has been installed on your telephone. There is one significant fact of intelligence-gathering and that is that it tends to fail when it is most needed. This is not only true of this country but even of countries which have the technology to tell you what Saddam Hussain had for breakfast on a particular morning. For all its formidable reputation, the CIA failed miserably in Vietnam. The Vietnamese peasant in black pyjamas known variously as gook or Charlie, neither being terms of endearment, was one step ahead of the CIA. So much so that during the January 1968 Tet Offensive, the American Ambassador Ellsworth Bunker had to flee the Embassy in his night clothes. The equally formidable Mossad was not able to prevent the assasination of Rabin and nor RAW, the assasination of both Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. And there can be no more absurd performance then that of the FBI when they picked up the bombing-suspect of the Atlanta Games, the luckless Mr Jewell whose life was turned upside down and who was arrested, interrogated and might even have been convicted. The FBI was shown to be clueless when it came to investigating the crash of TWA 800 because the FBI operated from the start on the assumption that it was an act of terrorism and then proceeded to work backwards. They would have done the same in the case of The Oklahoma bombing had they not been stopped dead in their tracks. Otherwise Islamic Fundamentalists had been nominated as the villains. In any case, domestic intelligence-gathering has all but ceased to have any usefulness since it is mainly used to keep a vigil on ones political opponents. That being the case, it is a gross violation of its terms of reference and its charter of duties. To start with, a distinction has to be made between the State and the government of the day. Intelligence agencies are meant to keep an eye on the enemies of a country. In other words, to forestall subversive elements, subversive to mean those who present a clear danger to the security of the state, those who may be passing on information to a countrys perceived enemies. They have no role to play in the political process of the country. When a political party is in the opposition, its more prominent members attract the attention of what are called sensitive agencies. Why should this be so? It is not unlawful to be in the opposition. Why then should they be treated as suspects? The irony is that the whole procedure is reversed when a government changes. But the fault does not lie with the intelligence agencies. It lies with the government itself. A long time ago, I wrote that we should not only dismantle the machinery of the police state but the state of mind that goes with it. In these times when we have become cost-conscious, we might consider the waste of money involved in gathering information which has no validity and which, in the end, serves only to harass ones opponents. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Counting the cost of Kashmir ------------------------------------------------------------------- Mazdak NAWAZ SHARIFs recently-enunciated resolve to break the deadlock with India over the festering Kashmir problem represents the first window of opportunity for improving relations with our neighbour in nearly eight years. Indeed, no prime minister in recent times in either country has enjoyed the kind of mandate Nawaz Sharif does, together with the freedom of manoeuvre it confers. Even Indira Gandhi did not gain such a sweeping majority after her victory over Pakistan in 1971. So this government can begin the politically difficult task of setting the pace. And while the Indian prime minister may still be a prisoner of the past  as well as a tenuous parliamentary majority  his Pakistani counterpart has no such constraints. Obviously, there can be no unilateral declaration of peace. The residue of half a century of animosity still distorts perceptions on either side, but if anybody can break out of the vicious cycle both India and Pakistan are locked in, it is Nawaz Sharif with his rock-solid majority. In addition, his right-of-centre, Muslim League credentials will help deflect the predictable accusations that he is soft on India. So just as it took a Republican president of the United States to make peace with China, and a Likud prime minister to open talks with the PLO, it will need a conservative prime minister in Pakistan to achieve a breakthrough with India. As we saw, Benazir Bhuttos efforts to forge closer ties with India in 1989 foundered on the rocks of Indian obduracy and incessant attacks from her opponents. Perceived as a liberal, she had little credibility with right-wing politicians and Pakistans powerful establishment. Nawaz Sharif does not suffer from this handicap. Although the number of people advocating an all-or-nothing solution to the Kashmir problem is mercifully declining, they still constitute a strong and vocal lobby. And failing a plebiscite they are sure Pakistan will win, they insist on clinging to the current ruinous status quo. Their Indian counterparts, for their part, hang on obstinately to their mantra of Kashmir being an integral part of India. Neither side will budge an inch, and both countries slide deeper and deeper into the morass of poverty and, at the end of the millennium, total irrelevance. Just as the 20th century was about naked military power, the next century seems likely to be dominated by economic clout. Already, various regional groupings are positioning themselves: the European Union, ASEAN and NAFTA are powerful economic alliances that are dominant in the world economy. By comparison, SAARC is a pathetic joke, largely because of the endless bickering between India and Pakistan. Quite apart from the debilitating financial cost of maintaining a huge defence establishment, we must count the political cost we have incurred in the past as a result of various direct and indirect military interventions. The only justification for the bloated defence budgets on both sides is the unending tension over Kashmir. Although India has regional pretensions as well as a disputed border with China, most of its armed might is poised on our eastern flank. Once we can shed this millstone around our necks, we can finally turn our attention to the long-deferred problems of poverty, disease and illiteracy. There has been much talk about foreign investments in the recent past; indeed, given the decline in bilateral and multilateral aid, this is now the only realistic route to development. But how many investors would like to put their money into an explosive subcontinent where Kashmir might provide the spark at any moment? With the whole world to choose from, businessmen are unlikely to flock to an area faced with the danger of a nuclear confrontation triggered by an unresolved territorial dispute. Our diplomacy, too, has become one-dimensional as a result of our inability to sort out our quarrel with India. In foreign capitals around the world, our poor representatives try yet again to interest their long-suffering hosts to take up cudgels on our behalf. Prodded by politicians in Islamabad, our ambassadors and their aides scurry around, waving ancient Security Council resolutions on Kashmir. Whenever possible, their victims duck for cover; but when caught, they wear a mask of pained resignation. Its high time we realised that the rest of the world is slightly underwhelmed by the whole problem, and just wishes it would go away. If there is any concern in any quarter, it is only because both India and Pakistan are covert nuclear powers. Freed from the deadweight of Kashmir, our diplomats might be able to get on with their job, which is to improve our relations with the rest of the world. Had we really cared as much about the people of Kashmir as we do about their land, we would at least be discussing the socalled third option instead of insisting on our hardline position. Indeed, initial autonomy to be followed a few years later by final talks on the question of sovereignty may be the only hope for a peaceful settlement. A variation on this theme was proposed last year by Dr Mahbubul Haq, and he had several hawks claw at him in print. But although I have often disagreed with him in the past, I find much merit in his idea. While many zealots in Pakistan are more than ready to fight to the last Kashmiri, they have few suggestions to offer on how to end this state of confrontation. But Nawaz Sharif is a shrewd businessman with a sharp eye for the bottom line. He no doubt sees the huge commercial advantages that would accrue to both sides if trade was to open up: our industrialists would have a huge market for their products; similarly, many raw materials would become far cheaper with resultant advantage to consumers. Both economies would benefit from a reduction in military expenditure on the one hand, and greater trade on the other. It is true that ultimately, human problems cannot be subjected to simple financial analysis. But by clinging to a formula that is dead and buried, we are ensuring that the only way we will be able to help our Kashmiri brethren is to observe an annual strike in their name. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ultimate responsibility ------------------------------------------------------------------- Hafizur Rahman A COLUMNIST of an Urdu daily has wistfully recalled how Mr Lal Bahadur Shastri thought it proper to resign, when he was railway minister of India, because there had been a serious railway accident involving a large loss of life. Mr Shastri could have done nothing to prevent the accident, but he felt morally bound to lay down his office. The columnist bewailed the fact that the principle of ultimate responsibility in democracy was no longer observed  at least not in Pakistan. Certainly it is cause for sorrow that politicians become glued to the chair if inducted into an office (of profit). The fact is that if they were ever given the choice, they would probably be ready to surrender a few years of their lives rather than give up a chair. After all the chair is the thing. I remember a rather telling observation said to have been made in this connection by Sir Chhotu Ram, the distinguished Revenue Minister of pre- partition Punjab, who, incidentally, did much to free the Punjab peasantry (most of whom were Muslims) from the economic clutches of the Hindu bania. He was once asked why he or his colleagues did not choose to give up office of minister when all the time they complained that it was a bed of thorns and an utter museebat. A rank realist, Chaudhry Sahib is reported to have replied, Bhai, when a minister alights from a flag car, and the police guard stands to attention and salutes him, it is as good as half a bottle of whisky. It is this stimulant, this heady feeling, which does not let him resign. Heard in the accent of Karnal and Rohtak, the area Sir Chhotu Ram came from, this pearl of wisdom has a flavour all its own which no English translation can convey. But Chaudhry Sahib spoke the truth. The exercise of authority, the opportunity to feel and use power, the panoply, the adulation of fawning sycophants and (nowadays) the material privileges  all these are no joke. How many people are able to get them even for a few minutes in a lifetime? It would take a truly great man to be able to see the principles through the haze and glare created by these trappings of office. As for railway accidents and the like, they will go on happening anyway. Who can stop them? What my columnist friend does not know is that, at the time it took place, Mr Shastris resignations had its reverberations in Pakistan too. A few months later there was a railway accident of almost the same magnitude in this country somewhere in Sindh. The matter was debated in the Central Assembly, as it was then called. Some of the members referred to the ethics of Mr Shastris action and eulogised its democratic spirit. They even called for similar sacrifice on the part of the then Railway Minister. The minister, Mian Jaffar Shah of Mardan, got up to reply to the debate and ended by saying in the most indignant tone, All this talk about resigning because of a railway accident. Never. I shall not resign. By the grace of God I am a Muslim. I shall never follow in the footsteps of a kafir! Thus it was that the Islamic spirit of Mian Sahib prevented the Government of Pakistan from losing a very energetic and useful minister. Because, quite apart from his English bloomers (he once described the members of a visiting Turkish delegation as these honourable Turkeys, and would invariably say filful instead of fulfil) Mian Jafar Shah was a magical manipulator of elections and an invaluable asset for any political regime willing to go through them. I think it is not without reason that those of Pakistans personalities who are inclined by temperament towards dictatorship decry parliamentary democracy as being unsuitable to our psyche. If we were to follow the traditions of Westminster and other alien institutions, our ministers, both federal and provincial, would be resigning every week because of one trespass or another. We might then have to import ministers from abroad. The trouble with these foreign institutions is that they treat ministers, and even prime ministers, like ordinary human beings and then expect them to behave like angels. How can we, simple mortals that we are, live up to such superhuman expectations, when each one of us, sinners as we all claim to be, wants to excel others in confessing to be gunahgar? Whenever someone, in excess of modesty (or hypocrisy), describes himself as a sinner, I am always tempted to ask him why he sins at all and what prevents him from giving up sin. Once you have called yourself a sinner  and you should know yourself best because anyone else calling you that might be guilty of calling a spade a spade  all your efforts, your mental faculties, your moral strength, should be directed towards reforming yourself. As someone aspiring to be a good Muslim you should be doing your best to become deserving of a better epithet than a sinner. Confessing to a crime, which is a wrong in the eyes of man-made laws, may be pardonable. But a sin is against the law laid down by the Almighty  that is, if you are a believer. Instead of trying to wash that sin, people go on proclaiming that they are gunahgars, sinners. Is this just an attempt to sound humble, or am I looking at it from the wrong angle? I admit that in these times it may not be possible for a Mohtasib, or even perhaps for a computer, to keep track of the misdemeanours of ministers and elected representatives, but let us, for Gods sake, reintroduce some old respected traditions and practices of democratic government. That of ultimate responsibility, for example. The long years of military rule have played havoc with these traditions and practices, and what sounded ethical, say, 20 years ago may appear to be foolish and unnecessary today. Add to this the complete failure of elected regimes since 1988 to support, encourage and respect traditional values, and its no surprise to find our politics at the nadir of self-degradation, individually as well as collectively. Now that a new regime has come into power, elected by an overwhelming majority, and promises to conduct itself on a moral plane in all spheres of national life, let us see what it has to offer that is different and good and decent. It would be prudent, however, to keep our fingers crossed.

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SPORTS

970301 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Mujtaba, 91, helps Pakistan lift SAARC trophy ------------------------------------------------------------------- Hasan Saeed DHAKA, Feb 28: Favourites Pakistan A lifted the 3rd SAARC Cricket Trophy beating holders India A by virtue of better run-rate in the rain-marred final at the Dhaka Stadium today. The final match between the two arch rivals earlier began at 10.40 a.m. (local time), 85 minutes late due to heavy fog in the morning with the tie reduced to 44 overs. Put to bat first, Pakistan, A were all out for 199 runs in 43.2 overs with skipper Asif Mujtaba topscoring with 91 runs in 104 balls. Mujtaba was caught 9 runs short of his maiden SAARC century, but his captains knock won him the Man of the Match award. He also received the Man of the Tournament award for his prolific batting in the competition. In reply, India A managed to score 124 runs losing 5 wickets in 31 overs with a S. Sarath and S. Prasad batting on 35 and 3 runs respectively. But then the Dhaka afternoon sky gave in and poured 2 mm rains in 10 minutes that halted the match. Finally, the last showdown had to be abandoned, putting a gloomy end to the four-nation biennial meet which opened on Feb 19. Pakistan A were declared champions according to the run-rate as holders India A were still 39 runs short of the asking runs in 31 overs. India needed 163 runs in 31 runs to win the match on better run-rate. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed distributed the trophies as chief guest at a simple ceremony. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Zaheer wants more regional cricket matches ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Correspondent DHAKA, Feb. 26: Zaheer Abbas, manager of the Pakistan A cricket team now plying the SAARC tournament, is delighted to be in Dhaka heading the favourite of the current engagement. In an interview with English daily The Star he said he was always happy to be in Dhaka where he delighted huge cricket-loving crowd during his playing days. Daily Star (DS): What has been your thought on the tournament so far? Zaheer Abbas (ZA): It has been a very good tournament, nicely organised. The only thing I am disappointed with is the absence of big crowds. After a full house in the first match I expected similar crowds in the subsequent games. Unfortunately, that has not happened. DS: And your teams performance? ZA: It has been good except for the wides and no-balls. The main reason for that is that the bowlers are bowling without studs and spikes on their boots. They are also bowling on a surface unfamiliar to them. Otherwise they are usually very accurate. DS: What do you think of the Bangladesh side? ZA: They have improved quite a lot in the last few years and I expect them to improve even more in the near future. Since you have someone like Gordon Greenidge, there is more scope for improvement. It will also help develop specific skills. I think it is a good sign that you are getting professionals from different fields. DS: How you think countries like Bangladesh should go about developing their cricket? ZA: The most important thing is exposure. You have to go abroad more often and get exposure. For example, when Sri Lanka first came to the international scene, they went abroad frequently and that is how they developed. I think you should start off by visiting the SAARC countries  Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka. Playing in their domestic tournaments, like one of your teams is doing now in Pakistan, will help too. Only with such exposure can you learn about your faults and develop your technique. You could also hold this SAARC tournament more frequently. DS: How much scope do you think does Bangladesh have for developing in cricket? ZA: You have tremendous scope. You see, three SAARC countries have won the World Cup and are the top teams in the world today. So why can Bangladesh not do well and go on to play at the international level? The atmosphere here is conducive to cricket: there is a lot of interest in the game and with proper initiative Bangladesh should be able to reach that stage. The people here love this game and you should develop the game as quickly as possible. DS: Of late, Pakistan has been producing a number of quality young players. What do you think is the reason behind this trend? ZA: Talented youngsters have always been there but it all depends on the selectors if they are to surface internationally. I am in the selection committee and we do not mind taking a few risks. We have to show our confidence in youngsters. We have even given break to some body as young as Hassan Raza, the 14-year-old kid. This also serves as an incentive to upcoming players. Every parent will now tell their child that he could play for Pakistan even at the age of fourteen only if he is good enough. This works as a psychological boost. DS: Players like Mohammad Wasim, Saqlain Mushtaq and Shahid Afridi have shown good temperament despite being newcomers to the international stage. How has this been possible? ZA: We have a high standard of cricket in domestic competitions as we take our game very seriously. The boys are used to playing competitive cricket. They also play for different companies back home and to keep their jobs, they have to try and improve constantly. This helps to improve the standard and also to build temperament. DS: What is the criterion of selection for the Pakistan side? ZA: Apart from ability and current form, discipline and approach to the game are considered. But in my opinion fielding is a very important factor. Regardless of the fact that you are a world class batsman or bowler, if you can not field well, you have no room on my team. It is very simple - fielding is the first priority. DS: Pakistan had gone through a phase of a disciplinary crisis of sorts a few yeas back. Now things seem to have settled down. How has such a transition been possible? ZA: The change actually took place as more youngsters came up. Now we have got less player-power as we have developed a good team of back-up players. Anyone  whether he is a world class player or not  can be replaced by a younger player. A competent replacement is always available. No one in the Pakistan team is indispensable. DS: So you think players like Mohammed Zahid and Shahid Nazir can step into the boots of Wasim Akram or Waqar Younis even? ZA: That only time can tell, but they definitely have the potential to do so. DS: What is the actual role of a manager in modern-day cricket? ZA: The manager is there to solve problems for the players. We are here to help them out, to constantly guide them. The boys out there are not computers, they have to be told what is good for them and what is bad. It helps when the manager himself is an ex-player as he can understand the players problems better. I think having a good manager definitely affects a team. DS: India and Pakistan have not played a series against each other at home for some time now? Do you think this trend should change? ZA: They should definitely play frequently. Understandably, there is always a fear of unrest among the public. But I think this will normalise if more matches are played. Otherwise, all the tension is concentrated on one or two games only. We should also play with each other to improve our games. If we play among ourselves in the SAARC region, it will help all the countries develop better technique and temperament. That will help our region to claim the top spot in world cricket. In that respect, this current tournament is a good step. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Jansher threatens to skip World Series event ------------------------------------------------------------------- A. Majid Khan KARACHI, Feb. 24: World Open record holder Jansher Khan today announced to skip the PSA Super Series finals in case the new American scoring system of nine points is not altered to by 15 points. Addressing a Press conference at the PIA headquarters soon after his reception was over, world champion Jansher Khan said that he had informed today his London manager to contact the Professionals Squash Association (PSA) Executive Director John Nimick on his conditionality of participation in the top eight-man contest of the Super Series standing. Jansher urged that the PSA Super Series should be contested on 15 points system and not on nine points. Last year I competed in the event and the experimental nine points system, according to him, resulted in his defeat on the eve of the British Open. It had a bad psychological effect, though he retained the British open title for the fifth successive year last year, the champion added. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Pakistans hockey potential ------------------------------------------------------------------- Syed Mohammad Pakistans prospects in the coming Olympic games were bright to some my statement may seem strange. But it is not. I say so because hockey is in her blood as it is in the blood of other South Asian teams. But Pakistani players are tougher then other South Asia. However, hard the Europeans may try they cannot acquire the natural talent with which South Asians have been gifted because of their sharper reflexes. European supremacy depends on changed rules and change in the playing surface and scientific physical training hard hitting, fast running and bulldozing. These can be thwarted by clean stick work. What is needed is the attention of the Pakistan Hockey Federation. It has to ensure that the toughness the players possess has to be maintained. The players have to be looked after. Nourishing and light food, exertion to capacity of each player. The amount of rest needed by each player. Every player should be provided the kind he needs. Then comes the most important thing i.e. coaching. The coaches should not be left to do what they like. Then work had to be supervised. Wholesale coaching is not the answer. Individual coaching as opposed to collective coaching is the key point for improving the performance of players. After mastery of ball control and stick work, players have to be taught team work. This is done during the course of games played for improving team work. Forwards have to be taught dodging dribbling and short passing, while defenders have to be taught accuracy in tackling. Forwards have to be taught to make opening for penetrating enemy defence. Defenders have to be taught to block the openings enemy forward have been trying to make. Defending players have to be taught accuracy in tackling and interception of enemy passes. At the conclusion of each field game after the players have changed into dry and warm clothing and had ample nourishing refreshments, faults should be discussed. During the field game on the following day players should be directed to avoid the faults committed in the game played during the previous day. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 970222 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Venturing a verdict on the most dangerous attack ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lateef Jafri WHICH is the best and most varied bowling side today for consistent effort and constant success in Test matches and limited-overs internationals, ask cricket enthusiasts? Is it the world champions, Sri Lanka, with its own strategy on the field and fighting capacities, even in difficult circumstances? Who would have thought that India, on their own happy hunting ground of Eden Gardens, would crash to the pace and sharp spin of the Lankan bowlers in the semifinals of the World Cup? Once Sachin Tendulkar and Sanjay Manjrekar had left the Sri Lankan bowlers length and curve defied drives. They were 120 for 8 when crowd trouble, at a place where the fans always enjoyed the thrills of the game, stopped the fixture for good and the match referee, Clive Lloyd of the West Indies, had but to intervene and give his ruling in favour of Lanka. Jayasuriya, the bowler, was unplayable; his slow stuff, sent with amazing steadiness, harried the Indian batsmen. In the final, the Lankans beat the redoubtable Australians by seven wickets to lift the coveted cup for global one-dayers. However, cricket observers and critics can, under no circumstance, agree that the island attack is the most balanced, if not the most destructive. Is Chaminda Vaas, their medium- pacer, in the class of Allan Donald, the South African, or Curtly Ambrose, the West Indian. Certainly no spinner of the island can be bracketed with Warne and Tim May for his spinning art. The Australian bowling, minus Craig McDermotts velocity and double-swing, has lost its force and sting, whatever may be the physical strength of McGrath, Angel and Reiffel. The Australians, no doubt, have a consistent artist and a classical spinner in Shane Warne, who is a pleasure to watch. His guile would worry the most organised batsmen but where are the fearsome match-winning pacers? The late Leonard Hutton, knighted for batsmanship and captaincy, once described the Australian attack of the 1950-51 series as the most varied and difficult one of the post-War era. Lindwall and Miller formed a ferocious new-ball pair. Then came Bill Johnston with his cutters. Ian Johnson and Jack Iverson provided the variety but the whole bowling set taxed the skill and technique of the batsmen, English, South African and the West Indian, considering that the three Ws  Worrell, Weekes and Walcott  were then at the apogee of their form. Perhaps during the Bradman captaincy from 1946 to 1948 the Australian bowling had the same all-round excellence as stated by Hutton except that Dooland, McCool, Ring and Johnson were backing the fast attack since Iverson had an entry in the Test team much later. The Australian combination of Gregory, McDonald and Mailey had the force and fire of true seamers and the dexterity of a spinner. But after a few years McDonald left Australia to demonstrate his demolition act at Lancashire. Mailey, as experts are agreed, was too expensive. The Grimmett- Mailey pairing did not last long for the latter left the Test scene in 1926 for the inimitable Clarrie Grimmett to alone exhibit his clever spin and deceitful googly. But where was the brute force with the springing strides of Lindwall, Miller and Johnston? England had a strong attack in the fifties with Bedser, Statham and Trueman quite dangerous for the Australians as also the Carribbeans. Then Laker and Lock dazzled the onlookers with their variations of flight and spin. The bowling had balance and variety. Yet what is the English bowling of today? Certainly it cannot be compared with the bowlers of yore. Even most of the West Indian trundlers, leaving aside Curtly Ambrose, are getting old. A new energetic lot will have to take over from them. Gilchrist, Hall, Holder, Holding, Clarke, Marshall, Croft and Garner, with venomous and nasty speed left competitive cricket, as everybody has to do, long ago and the Caribbeans have no more breath-snatching speed merchants. One can risk a claim that Waqar Younis and Wasim Akram of Pakistan form the most dangerous and effective fast bowling duo in the present-day cricket- playing countries. The pair will shake the batsmen with sheer speed or slight change of pace. The long run and galloping stride of Waqar would make the rival batsmen fearful of the bowler. Then the alarming pace would strain the nerves of many a technically-sound batsman. Wasim has few peers as a new-ball bowler. With the perfect shape of a pacer Wasim would send his swinging, bouncing deliveries to puzzle the batsmen and get an early breakthrough. If Aqib Javed may not have been sidelined from the mainstream outfit for reasons better known to the officialdom of the cricket board, perhaps Pakistan may be called to be having the most menacing fast attack. Yet the two Ws are in a class into their own. As Mushtaq Ahmad and Saqlain Mushtaq come to show their pretty and clever bowling the variety is enthralling to behold. It is the most balanced attack both for the sweat and labour of one-day as well as for five-day tussles of Test matches. The Pakistani bowling is good enough to wreak havoc on any field, at home or away. If the team is let down it is only by a brittle middle-order or if one of the regular opening batsmen is ill or is driven out of the squad for reasons other than cricket. Back to the top.

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