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DAWN WIRE SERVICE

------------------------------------------------------------------- Week Ending : 29 February 1996 Issue : 02/09 -------------------------------------------------------------------

Contents | National News | Business & Economy | Editorials & Features | Sports
The DAWN Wire Service (DWS) is a free weekly news-service from Pakistan's largest English language newspaper, the daily DAWN. DWS offers news, analysis and features of particular interest to the Pakistani Community on the Internet. Extracts from DWS can be used provided that this entire header is included at the beginning of each extract. We encourage comments & suggestions. We can be reached at: e-mail dws@dawn.khi.erum.com.pk dws%dawn%khi@sdnpk.undp.org fax +92(21) 568-3188 & 568-3801 mail Pakistan Herald Publications (Pvt.) Limited DAWN Group of Newspapers Haroon House, Karachi 74400, Pakistan TO START RECEIVING DWS FREE EVERY WEEK, JUST SEND US YOUR E-MAIL ADDRESS! (c) Pakistan Herald Publications (Pvt.) Ltd., Pakistan - 1996 DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS

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CONTENTS

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NATIONAL NEWS

Magnet ring sale to Pakistan Ring magnet issue : US blocks all loans to China Cabinet okays dual vote for minorities : ID condition waived MQM team satisfied with talks Talks offer renewed : Terrorists ready to surrender, claims Shah Attempts at Sindhs division to be opposed Ten shot dead in violence ---------------------------------

BUSINESS & ECONOMY

Income sharing gap rises Money supply increased by 6% Rupee under pressure from trade deficit Pakistan moderate risk area: IRB Dry port to be built near Chinese border CCOP okays sale of UBL shares to Saudi firm Stock prices fall across a broad front ---------------------------------------

EDITORIALS & FEATURES

A security overkill Omar Kureishi Imran Khan: why nurse a grouse? Hafizur Rahman Karachi diary : Cricket is here Rifaat Hamid Ghani Karachi: has the tide turned? Ayaz Amir Should we trade with India? Shahid Kardar -----------

SPORTS

A fit Pakistan side can retain title Team in fine fettle, says Wasim Miandads sense of commitment Batting order: Zaheer has doubts S. Africa can beat Pakistan, says Cronje Dutch captain tips Pakistan, S.A. favourites Should the UAE, Kenya & Holland be here? A dark horse may run away with the Cup Where all the spectators have gone? No clear winners can be picked yet =================================================================== DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS

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NATIONAL NEWS

=================================================================== 960224 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Magnet ring sale to Pakistan ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shaheen Sehbai WASHINGTON, Feb 23: The White House and the State Department have clarified that a decision on sanctions against China and Pakistan was not expected in the immediate future but the CIA has put the entire Administration in a hot spot by publicly insisting that China had transferred nuclear technology and M-11 missiles to Pakistan. The Administration reaction came following a New York Times report on Feb 21 saying the President intended to punish China "by applying selective sanctions" and Pakistan "by blocking the military equipment released by the Brown Amendment." The White House spokesman Mike McCurry said the President was not likely to be given any determination on the issue by his foreign policy advisers that requires a decision in the immediate future. Pakistan Ambassador to Washington Maleeha Lodhi denied that China had shipped any nuclear technology to Pakistan. But the Director of the CIA, John M. Deutch confirmed before Senate Intelligence Committee that China was continuing to export "inappropriate nuclear technology and missiles to Pakistan" and the Administration was watching China's "menacing movements in Asia on a minute to minute basis." Although China and Pakistan deny all wrongdoing, senior American officials say there is little doubt that a violation had occurred and that the United States must respond. Observers said in addition to the Intelligence Committee hearings of the Senate, the House Foreign Relations Committee was expected to take up the issue and the State Department was insisting that no decision would be taken by the Administration on shipment of military equipment to Pakistan before a full discussion with the Congress. "If the matter is thrown back to the Congress, as it appears it will be, the entire advantage which the Brown Amendment could bring for Pakistan and the Benazir Bhutto Government could be wiped out," diplomats say. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960229 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ring magnet issue : US blocks all loans to China ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shaheen Sehbai WASHINGTON, Feb 28: The United States may ask Pakistan to quietly put the Chinese ring magnets back in the boxes and return them to Beijing as the Clinton Administration watches Beijings reaction to the first concrete step it took last week to punish China  freezing of all loans, at least for a month. State Department spokesman Glynn Davies and other senior officials gave interviews to US newspapers disclosing that all loans to China had been blocked for 30 days, but olive branches had also been offered to Beijing to reach a compromise. The compromise solutions are being deliberated in Washingtons power circles because the US does not want to enter a trade war with Beijing and pressure may be growing in the Republican-dominated Congress to stop all shipments of arms and equipment to Pakistan allowed under the Brown Amendment. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cabinet okays dual vote for minorities : ID condition waived ------------------------------------------------------------------- Bureau Report ISLAMABAD, Feb 26: The federal cabinet approved report of electoral reforms committee suggesting to hold provincial and national assembly polls on the same day, lifting the condition of National Identity Card and giving dual voting right to the minorities. The reports contains recommendations aimed at substantially changing the countrys electoral system so as to make it more transparent, eliminate chances of rigging, reduce election expenses and improve and modernise the entire system to suit the requirements of a modern democracy, said the federal information minister Khalid Ahmed Kharal. The committee which was constituted in October 1994, suggested to remove the requirement of the National Identity Card (ID) for the voters and said it would eliminate the chances of abuse of ID cards by wealthy and influential candidates as well as help check the use of bogus ID cards for polling. In the support of the holding national and provincial assembly polls on same day it argued that it would help in the maintenance of law and order, avoid unnecessary expenditure and reduce tension and disorder during the intervening period between the polls. The committee prescribed use of ballots boxes of different colours for the facility of the voters. The committee also called for using transparent ballot boxes in future general election so as to guard their pre-poll stuffing. The cabinet, he added, had also decided to give minorities dual voting right. The minorities shall also cast votes in elections for general seats in addition to their right to vote in elections for their reserved seats, he said. A number of other recommendations aimed at cutting down the election expenses were also approved the cabinet, he said. In this regard it was decided to put a limit on elections expenses by individual candidates, however, the limit would later be prescribed by the election commission. There would be complete ban on hoardings, banners of all sizes and wall-chalkings. The poster and flags would be permitted but advertisements by individual candidates in newspapers would not be allowed only the political parties would be permitted to place advertisements of a total cost of up to Rs 10 million. The procedure for the announcement of election results would also be changed with a view to make it faster and more credible. It was decided that elections results would be tabulated by the returning officer and announced by the district returning officer. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960229 ------------------------------------------------------------------- MQM team satisfied with talks ------------------------------------------------------------------- ISLAMABAD, Feb 28: Senator Syed Ishtiaq Azhar, convener of MQM Coordination Committee, described his meeting with President Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari as positive. He however, remained tight-lipped about the details. Responding to queries of the newsmen Mr Azhar said: We discussed all our issues, like the situation in Karachi. When questioned how soon the results of the meeting would be evident, Mr Azhar said: It is too early to comment on it, however, he added: These talks cant be called fruitless. The president is the head of the state and we informed him about our grievances. Its up to him what step he takes. Asked if Mr Hussain was willing to come to the negotiating table, he said: He (Altaf) may, but if the prime minister is willing, too. We have not yet received any indication that she is willing to hold talks. To a question, he said the team had neither demanded dismissal of the government nor did it call for withdrawal of cases against Altaf Hussain. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Talks offer renewed : Terrorists ready to surrender, claims Shah ------------------------------------------------------------------- Bureau Report ISLAMABAD, Feb 27: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Abdullah Shah said that his government would soon spring a surprise on MQM chief Altaf Hussain after which he would have no option other than to accept that the path of terrorism was neither in the interest of the country nor of the Mohajirs. The chief minister claimed that several terrorist groups and individuals, including Naeem Sherri, had directly or indirectly approached the government for surrendering their arms. High-level consultations are going on to consider these offers, he said. Mr Shah said the government was still firm on its stand that it was ready to hold political dialogue provided the terrorists laid their guns. In that case the government would even consider giving political concessions, he added. However, he reiterated that all those involved in heinous crimes would have to get themselves cleared by the courts. The CM claimed that peace was gradually returning to Karachi and it was after several years that Ramazan had passed off peacefully. Not only this, the MQM tactic of closing the city through its strike calls has also lost its effectiveness. He said during the Ramazan of last year, the terrorists had not only killed innocent citizens but also attacked camps set up in Karachi to express solidarity with the Kashmiri people on Kashmir Day. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960220 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Attempts at Sindhs division to be opposed ------------------------------------------------------------------- Shamim-ur-Rahman and Hashim Khan Bhurgari BADIN, Feb 19: Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on declared that her government would not allow anyone to divide Sindh because it was against the integrity of Pakistan. Our struggle has been for the integrity and progress of Pakistan and we will not allow anyone to undermine it by dividing Sindh, we will not compromise on principles. She said many people had suggested to her to patch up with Altaf Hussain to save my seat, ignoring the cases instituted against. But I brushed aside any such proposal because I believe in the support of the people who have elected me to the high office, she said. She also renewed her offer of holding talks with the opposition in the greater national interest if its approach was positive. She nevertheless flayed the opposition leaders attempt to destabilise her government and said Mian Nawaz Sharif was confined to Punjab whereas in Sindh he had forged an alliance with Altaf Hussain and the ANP. She claimed that during the past 15 years opposition leader had done nothing for other provinces, including Sindh and he was making false promises to the people. On the contrary, she said her party was broad-based and national party doing its best for the whole country without any discrimination. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960224 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ten shot dead in violence ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb 23: A 48-year-old passport agent was killed and his father and teenage daughter were wounded when their Korangi residence was attacked by four armed youths. Nazakat Ali alias Cheena, father of 12, was sleeping when the armed men entered his house and ordered him to accompany them. When he resisted, the four opened fire killing him on the spot. His father Mirza Azmat Ali and daughter Ambreen received injuries in the shooting. They were admitted to Jinnah Hospital. Also, seven people, including a 12-year-old girl, fell victim to violence. A major incident of shooting took place in Chukra Goth, Korangi, in which three people were killed and three others suffered injuries when a crowded tea stall was sprayed with bullets in the night. The incident triggered violence as residents of this predominantly Baloch and Sindhi locality took to the streets, set ablaze a rickshaw and pelted vehicular traffic with stones. It was around 9 pm, as 15 to 20 people were sipping tea and listening to PTV news in Cafe Jehangir, when three to four terrorists pulled up there in a white Suzuki pickup and randomly fired at them. In Pak Colony, Shahbana Kausar, 12, was killed when a stray bullet hit her outside her Barood Khana School residence. Her body was brought to Abbasi Shaheed Hospital for autopsy. A young man described by the police as an MQM worker died in Korangi in the morning in what the police claimed was an encounter. Police claimed that Aleem Ahmed, 21, a member of Nadeem Chitta gang, was living in an under-construction apartments in Labour Colony.

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BUSINESS & ECONOMY

960225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Income sharing gap rises ------------------------------------------------------------------- Muhammad Ilyas ISLAMABAD, Feb 24: The income distribution gap recorded further increase with the 20 per cent richest households of Pakistan arrogating 44.5 per cent of total income to themselves during 1986-87 and 1990-91, according to a Federal Bureau of Statistics survey. The remaining 55.5% of income was distributed among 80 per cent of households of various socio-economic strata. The survey figures cited in a recent World Bank report, indicate that the entire rise in Household Income Gini Coefficient from 0.346 to 0.407 has gone to this highly resourceful class during the period. That the concentration of wealth is being aggravated and not reduced is manifested by the fact that the share of the middle 60 per cent of households also dropped from 48.5% to 48.25% during the period. Even more steep was the descent in respect of the households in the lowest 20% category: from 7.9% to 7.3%. Consequently, the ratio of income share of the highest to the lowest changed from 5.5 to 6.1 per cent. That this escalation in the income shares of the richest is not an isolated phenomenon but a regular, persistent one is evident from the fact that the share of the middle 60% during 1971-72 was 49.1%, compared to 43.0% for the highest 20% and 7.9% for the lowest 20%. In that year, the income distribution ratio of the highest to the lowest 20% was 5.4. The urban-rural gap is also quite significant. For example, rural areas contain 74% of the countrys poor, though they have about 70% of the total population. Among regions, Punjab appears to be considerably poorer than Sindh, largely because rural South Punjab has an extremely high incidence of poverty of nearly 50%. Within Punjab, rural north Punjab has better indicators than rural south Punjab which is characterised by bigger feudal holdings. Evidence on the comparative poverty of the two smaller provinces, Balochistan and NWFP is mixed. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960220 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Money supply increased by 6% ------------------------------------------------------------------- ISLAMABAD, Feb 19: The Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet (ECC) reviewed the prices and movement of essential commodities in the country and noted that the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) decreased by 0.15% against the previous week. The decrease was mainly due to fall in the prices of onions, potatoes, red chillies and gram pulses. The Committee was presented a report on monetary and credit situation by the State Bank. The Committee was informed that the money supply increased only by 6 % as compared with the target of 12 % for 1995-96 as a whole and expansion of 9 % in the corresponding period last year. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960224 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Rupee under pressure from trade deficit ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Farrukh Saleem MONEY in today's rapidly liberalising and globally intertwined markets is just like any other commodity. It no more recognises national boundaries, it is traded freely in the super-liquid currency markets and a particular currency's true worth is eventually determined by the interplay of the free market forces of demand and supply. The telecommunication revolution has added even more liquidity, speed, efficiency and convenience at the finger tips of all market participants: currency traders, speculators, investors, exporters and importers alike. Even the once all-powerful central bankers do not hold much sway anymore. The 24-hour, world-wide, computer-linked. Over-the-counter currency markets that trade around $2 trillion to $3 trillion worth of currencies on an average day have developed a resource based that is several hundred times larger than the combined reserves of all the central banks put together. Take the Bank of England, for instance. A couple of years ago it attempted to put a floor under the free falling pound. A number of market players led by George Soros had, in the meanwhile, put up a $50 billion leveraged bet against the Bank of England (BoE). The pound fell like Newton's apple, BoE pumped in a colossal $10 billion of its own resources to support the pound, eventually losing it all to market forces while Soros and others won big. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) apparently failed to learn anything from Bank of England's harsh experience. RBI has reportedly spent $3 billion out of its accumulated reserves of $22 billion over the past few weeks in support of the Indian Rupee. The market forces have even then managed to bring it down to Rs. 38 from Rs. 32 a mere few months ago. Lesson: No one should even try to mess with the potent forces of demand and supply. A historical review of the Pakistani rupee reveals that it has lost a colossal 247 per cent against the US dollar since the early part of 1982 when a dollar cost a mere Rs. 9.88. SBP'S dollar buying (TT clean) rate today stands at Rs. 34.29 while it costs around Rs. 36.50 in the open market. The largest appreciation as a matter of fact, has that been of Japanese Yen that has gone up by more than 600 per cent since 1982. Hong Kong dollar, Deutsche mark and Swiss franc all appreciated by around 450 per cent, 390 per cent and 375 per cent respectively. Besides the wholesale, gradual depreciation of the rupee against all the major currencies (since the fixed-peg was abandoned in favour of a managed-float in the early 80s) there have also been a few instance when the government undertook hastily decided overnight depreciations. In 1972, for instance, there was a 100 per cent devaluation and against in 1993 a 17 per cent downward adjustment besides the recent overnight 7 per cent downward adjustment. The international demand for a currency is its exports and a country's accumulated imports essentially represent its currency's overall supply. Other factors such as undocumented exports and imports, workers remittances, direct foreign investment, portfolio investment, investment income, donor grants and loans do also at times become influential. These other factors may also at time become important- e.g. when workers' remittances towards Pakistan had shot up to $2.8 billion in 1982-83 but by and large the main tug-of-war is between merchandise exports and imports. The international demand for the Pakistani rupee therefore, currently stands at around S8.5 billion (our estimated official annual exports) while the supply this year alone is expected to exceed $10.5 billion our documented estimated imports). The supply of Pakistani rupee is thus clearly a good $2 billion ahead of its demand. What happens when supply exceeds demand? The price, for sure, has to come down. This is what has been happening to our rupee. There was a time when the State bank of Pakistan (SBP) had much more discretion over the destiny of the rupee. It continues to possess some. But governments around the globe have been deregulating, disinvesting and denationalising Economies, at the same time are closer becoming more interrelated and increasingly interdependent. Markets-currencies, commodities, equities and debt all inclusive-have not only become plaited but dynamically efficient and severely penalising Any player that makes a mistake, whether individual or sovereign, is almost instantly and severely punished. Take Mexico, for example. The very moment that international investors reached a consensus that the country was living way beyond its means (represented by an unsustainable current account deficit). Mexico City's stock market had to suffer a humiliating 50% hit while the peso had to be devalued by 30% overnight. Is the situation almost as bad here at home? The answer in all probability, is in the affirmative. We continue to be an import based economy rather than an export driven one. We have already surpassed the government's expectation of a $2 billion merchandise trade deficit for the entire 1995-96 fiscal year in the first seven months of trading alone (exports for the July-February period. The current account deficit has expanded to an unsustainable level. Inflation has touched unprecedented heights The government remains excessively wasteful and vested interests have mortgaged the future of several generations of Pakistanis in the name of national security and the maintenance of offensive (as oppose to defensive) forces. There is no light at the end of the tunnel either. We may not even have begun to build the tunnel yet. The fate of a 130 million people is now being held hostage to a bumper cotton crop which at best may yield a 2 million bale exportable surplus and a paltry $500 million worth of additional export earnings. If it were not for an estimated $1 billion to $1.5 billion in unofficial exports our rupee may have already hit the Rs. 50 to-a- dollar mark. Our undocumented exports have indeed provided a lot of dearly needed support to the rupee and are expected to continue to play that role in the future. Our economic managers, on the other hand, aren't bothered; its like as if they had all their wealth in dollars already. The Prime Minister certainly has no time for economics as the first half of her day is taken up by affairs relating to political victimisation, the other half is for part matters, bureaucratic mutations, the all- important Punjab venture and then there are the frequent wild foreign binges. A widespread perception has somehow developed in the official circles that devaluation shall increase exports. If devaluation was really the magic formula, why don't we just devalue the rupee to Rs. 100 to-a- dollar in one go and export everything that this poor country is in possession of? The red issue is that the country truly does not produce much of an exportable surplus. Whether it be a 37-rupee dollar or a 50-rupee dollar we just don't have much to export. Our policies have never been production oriented and we do not have any plans in that direction either. the fifty-rupee dollar, therefore, remains a mere few odd miles away. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Pakistan moderate risk area: IRB ------------------------------------------------------------------- Athar Ali LONDON, Feb 27: Political instability and inadequate regulatory infrastructures are considered to be the main threats businesses in emerging markets will face in 1996. These issues pose greater risks than crime and corruption, which have traditionally been the main fears for businesses from the West operating in Asia or Africa. The findings are the result of a survey conducted by the Industrial Research Bureau (IRB) on behalf of Control Risks Group, a London-based organisation, which has recently published its annual report. The section on Pakistan shows the country as being in the moderate risk category, but with the trend rising. rural Sindh, Balochistan and the tribal areas of NWFP are declared to be high risk areas. The paragraph accompanying the chart reads: government forces, terrorism in Karachi, counter-terrorist campaigns, National economic growth stifled. Many Pakistani companies have now left Karachi, Kidnap risk to Westerners in isolated parts of Sindh province, Balochistan, NWFP tribal areas. The Control Risks Group does not hold the hope for a political solution to Karachis problems emerging despite all sides agreeing that the citys problems need a political solution. The reports section devoted to global issues points out that problems arising in 1996 will be more diverse and potentially more complex than ever before. Karachis problems have again been cited as an example. Each of the strikes in the city cost on average $33 million. The strife has inflicted direct physical and financial losses on locally-based companies, some of which have tried to adapt by employing informal quotas of people from specific communities. Investors have been advised in the report to conduct themselves in environmentally- friendly fashion in countries where they operate, or at least mitigate any environmental damage which their activities cause. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry port to be built near Chinese border ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter KARACHI, Feb 26: Pakistan plans to build a dry port near China border alongside Karrakoram Highway (KKH) in district Gilgit to facilitate transit trade with China and Central Asian States. With overland trade routes through troubled Afghanistan still insecure, Pakistan as well some of the Central Asian States were in search of a safer overland economical route through China. This route at a high altitude is also expected to facilitate the flow of inward and outward foreign trade under the recently signed tripartite transit trade agreement signed between Pakistan, China and Kazakistan. Business circles said the government has already taken steps to make the Karrakoram Highway an all-weather road. The traditional Resham Route could hum with business activity during the next few months as modern trade caravans will start to ply on the centuries old overland route, linking the CAS and China with the hot waters of Arabian Sea, another cargo hauler said. Mr Abuzer Ali, Representative of the Moorkhun village, tehsil Gulmit, district Gilgit, taking clue of the information that government of Pakistan (GoP) was planning to establish dry port in the area has offered a feasible place for the development of the port. Giving main characteristics and information about the land offer for the proposed dry port in Moorkhun Tehsil Gojal, District Gilgit, he said, the location would be alongside KKH having easy access to water and hotels. He hoped the government would take quick decision and issue directives to the concerned authorities to inspect the area as this would help up-grade living standard and provide job opportunities to the poor in the area. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960229 ------------------------------------------------------------------- CCOP okays sale of UBL shares to Saudi firm ------------------------------------------------------------------- Faraz Hashmi ISLAMABAD, Feb 28: The Cabinet Committee on Privatisation approved the sale of 26 per cent shares of Untied Bank (UBL) to Saudi Basharahil at a rate of Rs15.19 per share which will bring Rs585 million to the national exchequer. The committee prepared a report and submitted it to the CCOP which approved the report and accepted the Rs15.19 per share offer which is Rs5.19 above the par of Rs10 share, said a press release. The offer was totally unconditional based on the rule of as is where is basis, the press release said. The investor will bring in an independent team of highly qualified professional management, mainly of Pakistani nationality, with extensive experience in international banking, the commission said. The Saudi company would also acquire services of reputed consulting firms to immediately undertake financial and management restructuring, but would not be allowed to make any drastic changes, it added. The Privatisation Commission under an agreement with the employees had held out a firm assurance that the future buyer would not be allowed to carry out any retrenchment at least for one year after assuming the managerial control. The UBL has been suffering from the problem of over-staffing and at present there were 22,000 regular and around 2,000 ad hoc employees. The commission had also committed to sell 20 per cent of the UBLs total 148,168,000 shares to the employees. With the sale of 26 per cent shares, the employees will be proportionally entitled to purchase 5.2 per cent shares at the same rate of Rs15.19 per share. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960229 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Stock prices fall across a broad front ------------------------------------------------------------------- Commerce Reporter KARACHI, Feb 28: Stock prices fell further across a broad front as sellers again dominated the trading but there was strong buying at dips on selected counters. The Karachi Stock Exchange index of 100-share ended with an extended decline of 31.29 points at 1,718.94 as compared to 1,750.23 a day earlier, reflecting the weakness of the base shares. Dealers said although speculative activity is banned in the premises of the Karachi Stock Exchange, the Thursdays cricket match between Pakistan and South Africa in the city has its bearing on stock trading. Floor brokers said the direction of the market on Thursday will largely depend on the proceedings in the National Stadium as the match will begin just at the time trading resumes in the rings. While the board of directors of Engro Chemicals has announced a final dividend of 20 per cent plus bonus shares of an identical amount, after having already paid an interim of 40 per cent, Nestle Milkpak came out with an interim of 40 per cent. Mitchells Fruit came in for renewed support after the announcement of dividend a few days back and was quoted further higher and so did Bata Pakistan, Shell Pakistan, Reckitt and Colman, PSO, rising by one rupee. Other good gainers were led by Prince Glass, Indus Jute, the newly listed Legler Nafees, 6th ICP, Trust Leasing, and Taha Spinning, rising by one rupee to Rs 4. Barring Gul Ahmed Textiles, Lever Brothers, PIC, Pakistan Tobacco, and some others, which suffered fall ranging from Rs 2 to 5, losses elsewhere were fractional and reflected lack of support rather large selling from any quarter. The most active list was again topped by PTC vouchers, easy five paisa on 14.535m shares followed by Hub-Power, unchanged on 12.985m shares, Lucky Cement, lower five paisa on 0.820m shares, ICI Pakistan, down 25 paisa on 0.791m shares, Sitara Energy, lower five paisa on 0.768m shares, Fauji Fertiliser, off 25 paisa on 0.523m shares, Dhan Fibre, lower 10 paisa on 2.091m shares, and Faysal Bank, unchanged on 0.188m shares. Trading volume showed a sharp decline owing to the absence of leading sellers falling to 34.471m shares as compares to 39.255m shares a say earlier. There were 324 actives, out of which 199 shares suffered decline, while 67 rose, with 58 holding on to the last levels. 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EDITORIALS & FEATURES

960225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- A security overkill ------------------------------------------------------------------- Omar Kureishi THE expectation is that staging a mega sports event like the World Cup will enhance the esteem of the host countries, that it will accentuate the positive and downplay the negative. It doesnt quite work this way. It puts the host countries under immense scrutiny and with so many media persons on the loose, the slightest hitch can be blown up into an administrative cock-up. There is to start with a certain built-in scepticism about the Third World, we are perceived to be living on the edge of chaos and nothing is expected to work. A British Airways flight can be ten hours late and this is accepted but a delayed flight of one of our airlines represents a logistical nightmare and proof that not only are we unworthy of staging such a major tournament but unfit for self- government. When Shane Warne has an upset stomach it becomes world- wide news and grim details are given of what he might have eaten or whether the offending bug may have been acquired from an ice-cube. It becomes a comment on the general standards of hygiene and sanitation in the host countries. The physio-therapist of the England team has forbidden the players from biting their nails because the grounds on which they play use sewage water on the outfield and a player fielding can pick up goodness knows what. It is not just eating and drinking that can be dangerous but also fielding. Obviously one cant be too careful. I do not wish to seem to be mocking the care and caution that visiting teams take to safeguard their health. Normal precautions are one thing but the World Cup is not being played in tropical swamps of darkest Africa of the last century. The visiting teams live in five-star hotels and cannot be said to be roughing it out. When the last England team toured India, one of the defeats was attributed to the air pollution in Calcutta by no less a man than the chairman of the England selection committee and another defeat was apparently caused because some of the players had eaten prawn curry and had been laid low. Apparently no credit was given to the superior skills of the opponents. There is obviously a difference between the bomb blast in Colombo and the one in London. The Colombo bomb blast frightened off two teams and they refused to play in Sri Lanka. There has been no disruption of any sports event in England. The publicity that Sri Lanka got must have made them question the wisdom of their decision to co-host the World Cup. There have been bomb blasts in Colombo in the past and they attracted no more notice than the bomb blasts in other cities of the world and which are now a common feature. But because it was linked to the World Cup, Sri Lanka suddenly became a terribly dangerous part of the world. India and Pakistan are due to tour England later this year. Does anyone really believe that the bombings in London will have any effect on these tours or that two countries, India and Pakistan, are having second thoughts about touring England? Yet the TCCB chairman is reported to have said that Australia and the West Indies might have a case. Would the TCCB have taken this reasonable view if it stood to lose a lot of money and be slandered in the bargain? Clearly Sri Lankas expectations were that it would enhance its esteem by becoming one of the co-hosts of the World Cup, those expectations have been shattered. Far from generating goodwill, it has earned it suspicion. But security, a word with a multitude of implications, has become the nightmare of this World Cup. It would have been an important consideration irrespective but the Australians have ensured that the cricket grounds and the hotels resemble fortresses, not only for them, but for the entire tournament. Perhaps, the concern is justified but it can be taken to absurd lengths. Consider simply this news item with a Visakhpatnam dateline: Indian gunships have been called in to strengthen the ring of steel thrown around Australias World Cup cricketers. Police sources said the vessels would be positioned in the Bay of Bengal off Visakhpatnam to guard the coastline. On dry land, meanwhile, the Australian tournament favourites who refused to play in Sri Lanka over security fears, will be watched over by contingents of armed police, snipers, anti-terrorist and explosive experts armed with metal detectors and tracker dogs. It remains only for the Indian Air Force to get into the act and provide air cover for the security to be complete. All things considered, both for the peace of mind of the Australian cricketers and for the enjoyment of the rest of us, it would have been the best had Australia pulled out of the tournament. According to this news item, the Australian players have been advised to stay on a common hotel floor and move about only in groups. They would be escorted to the stadium through pre-arranged routes and their food at the hotel would be monitored round-the-clock. When I was in Calcutta for the opening ceremony of the World Cup, the Australian team was staying at the same hotel that I was. I did not see very much security in evidence though it was surely there but I did see the Australian players soaking in the sun as they sat around the swimming pool... They did not look like a bunch of frightened men and appeared perfectly relaxed. Even Shane Warne. But the best answer has been provided by Sri Lanka itself. Not only was it able to host an exhibition match against a joint Indo-Pakistan team but the match against Zimbabwe played before a capacity crowd went off without a hitch. To be sure security was tight but both the players and the spectators enjoyed themselves as did Keith Stackpole, the Australian TV commentator who did not give the impression that his life was on the line. I dont know about the Australians but the West Indies must be kicking themselves that they went along and forfeited their match. Their captain Richie Richardson has clearly indicated that the decision was taken by the West Indian Cricket Board and not by the players. The West Indies were conned. Concern or too much concern about security has shifted the focus of the tournament away from the festive nature of it. We find ourselves in a Catch 22. If there should be an incident, no matter how minor, the tournament will be remembered for it and if there should be no incident the tournament will be remembered for that! But a tournament as competitive as the World Cup is not calculated to make friends. There is too much at stake. It is not just the teams that are fired up but the supporters as well. And the character of the supporters has changed. There would have been tension without the palaver about security. I had looked forward to the World Cup. Now, I cant wait for it to finish. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Imran Khan: why nurse a grouse? ------------------------------------------------------------------- Hafizur Rahman THERE are so many things about Skipper Imran Khan that people are not able to appreciate, or even understand. This always happens when a person who has become famous in one field wants to take on other fields too. But what I have not been able to understand is: why should Imran Khan nurse a grouse against the ruling regime? As I see it, he should be grateful to it for giving him so much importance. Undoubtedly his achievement in setting up a great cancer hospital is worthy of being written in letters of gold, as they say in Urdu. But then, that was all. He had nothing more to his name than the hospital. The regime has made him a truly national figure, fit to be launched in politics. And yet he cribs. His main grudge is that he was not allowed to display his advertisement on television asking the people to donate their zakat to the hospital. This again was a favour to him by the government. Had the ad appeared, people would have associated it with the establishment and given him nothing. Now Im told they are donating with a vengeance. And yet he cribs. Then, he went out of his way to affirm and re-affirm that he was not going into politics. However, the Information Ministry, very subtly, created the impression that he was, and made him out to be a second Nawaz Sharif. Where the ministry had failed to build any government figures image  not even the Prime Ministers  it succeeded in boosting up the political potential of Imran Khan. And yet he cribs. The only thing about which he has not cribbed in public is that PTV, while going over Pakistans cricketing history, forgot to mention him or show him in action. He didnt have to complain on that score, for almost the whole nation made its indignation known in the matter, obliging the Federal Information Minister not only to tell a whopper that PTV had done nothing of the sort, but also to promise at the same time that it will not repeat the mistake in future. And Imran Khan, with all his graces, didnt have the grace to apologise to the minister for placing him in such a difficult position. The least that he could have done was to request the nation not to make an issue of the business of the PTV ignoring him like that. He should know that it has happened to better people before him. During the 49 years that Pakistan has been in existence, successive rulers have sought to prove that, where good works are concerned, their predecessors had never existed. They made up for this by blaming the same non-existent forebears for their own bad deeds and mismanagement of the country. By common consent, perhaps the most glorious days in Pakistans history were those during which the Islamic Summit was held in Lahore in 1973. The spirit of the people and their emotional involvement in the occasion were such that they went mad with joy. I was in Lahore at that time. Even the bitterest foes of the late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto were inclined to forgive him his faults. And yet, during General Ziaul Haqs time, I had occasion to see a documentary film of the Summit on PTV. It tried to convince me that ZAB had nothing to do with that historic and up-lifting occasion; he was nowhere in the film. Simply nowhere. In the idiom of film-making this is called deft editing. So, if the PTV can hold the Islamic Summit without Mr Bhutto, it is childs play for it to depict the Cricket World Cup of 1992 without Imran Khan. An adage in English is very popular: Staging Hamlet without the Prince of Denmark, or words to that effect. Seemingly an impossible task, I am sure the PTV could do it, if the Ministry of Information thought it was in the interest of the government in power. The other day a wag was making what I thought was a farfetched conjecture. Suppose, he said, most of the national cricket team were somehow to annoy the rulers of Pakistan; will they all be boycotted by the PTV? Will the PTV act as if there is no cricket in Pakistan? Yes, I replied, why not? If it comes to that the PTV must react patriotically. Its a question of principle. Another wag (there seem to be so many around these days) made the rather cheeky statement on Eid day that Imran Khan has taken his own back by inviting Princess Diana as his personal guest to Lahore, leaving the Pakistan Foreign Office wondering if its prescribed protocol for Her Royal Highness would rub the Prime Minister the wrong way. Of course he made it sound like a joke, but this is hardly a joke. This is a serious national issue. Imran Khan may be a patriot par excellence, but he cant be allowed to place the ruling regime (after all it is elected democratically by the people) in an embarrassing position. How dare he invite the Princess of Wales over the heads of the government in Islamabad? And how dare the Princess collude in this conspiracy? I dont know what the Prime Minister thinks about this situation created by the Princesss so-called private visit to Lahore. Private my foot! Take it from me this is a Jewish conspiracy, and if General Naseerullah Babar were to probe deep into it, he would discover a Hindu connection too. What a pity that Imran Khan should lend his person to this shady business. If I were in the Prime Ministers place, I would have summoned a cabinet meeting at once to see what the Information Minister and the Interior Minister had to say about the whole thing. They should be properly put on the mat for allowing Imran Khan to exploit the royal visit to his advantage. That apart, Pakistan should not take this affront lying down. Private visit or no private visit, the Princess is daughter-in-law of the Queen, the head of the Commonwealth. If I were the Prime Minister I would lodge a strong protest with Whitehall and threaten to leave the Commonwealth if the British royal family is to behave like this  consorting with the ruling regimes pet aversion and taking the Government of Pakistan for a ride. Some other steps can also be taken to let the British Foreign Office and Buckingham Palace know that such an attitude wont do. It is true that the ruling family in Pakistan has not set up a cancer hospital to show to the Princess, but that doesnt mean that she should accept invitations from every Tom, Dick and Harry who starts a billion-rupee free hospital to commemorate his mother. All said and done, I am for putting Imran Khan in his proper place  whatever that is. And that goes for Princess Diana too. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960229 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Karachi diary : Cricket is here ------------------------------------------------------------------- Rifaat Hamid Ghani THE sanctioned line of reasoning seems to be that there is no kind way of dealing with an insurgency or terrorism. The terrorists and insurgents in mind are categorised as MQM(A). The ministry of the interior has done law-abiding, peace- loving citizens of Karachi a favour by breaking their backs (not of the peace-lovers, of course, only the insurgents) and now that faith in the salutary regulatory powers of the agents of law enforcement is being restored and terrorists are less and less of an impediment in the way of Karachiites, they will soon be busy as bees at their lawful businesses, not held hostage to extortion, bhatta and intimidation from the MQM. In case you are in one of those unrepresentative areas of Karachi where peace is not yet happily prevailing (75:25 is one version of the peace-strife index ratio) know and take heart from the fact that it is reputed to be alive, doing well and growing apace, and will soon catch up with your districts. Then we may have local bodies elections, and even a census. Now all this is on the anvil because action was taken by the law enforcement agencies against the MQM (A). It has also been pointed out several times by the authorities that the operation, (sometimes criticised by those who could not recognise the blessing in disguise) was initiated in the time of Premier Nawaz Sharif. So do grateful citizens thank him too? Well the operation is still 25 per cent failure so we can hold him responsible for that: it must be the bit begun in his time. Something may have to be done about that. Anyway, shoppers may look forward to returning to bargain- hunting for benarsi fabrics and handlooms in Orangi; browsing among the books at second-hand bookshops around Haidery; tucking in at Mulla Halwais. And, as we are a liberal, liberated society, lets bear in mind driving creekwards to Korangi when the moon is full, and a midnight spin to Jinnah Terminals smart new rooftop restaurants for a cup of coffee. Home is home again folks, Karachis its old self, or as good as there. And the proof of the pudding is in the slice of the World Cup cake we are getting. Driving towards the stadium, we see not only Rangers and sandbags, but also welcoming arches. And what could be more typically normal than the griping about hideousness at the Teen Talwar? We shall never know whether they could have made even Imran look that ugly as his picture is not allowed. Cricket is an international sport, however, and as the rest of the world kept showing snippets of our onetime idol, the PTV finally gave in and followed the trail blazed by other channels on the dish yet again. What to do about Imran? He just is good copy. He gets away even with being a son-in-law of the West. And what if some imp of mischief were to prompt him into going to one of those World Cup cultural shows and the audience cheered? If he put in an appearance and was not enthusiastically mobbed, it might merely go to show that the audience was more elitist than awami. For in the cricketing context Imran is a popular hero, whatever fault may be found with him and brownsahib theorising. Forget about the establishment, said one sports-lover, what about our boys in the team? Its disgraceful the way they have been tight lipped about acknowledging and remembering an outstanding captain. Also occasioning comment in sporting circles is the lack of recognition extended to Nur Khan in the general exchange of plaudits. Fulsome praise has been showered on personalities who have done much less than Nur Khan did for not just cricket, but squash, hockey and putting Pakistan on the sporting map in general. Why do we magnify contributions where virtually none exist and fail to give credit where its amply due? There may be political reasons for ostracising Imran and making him persona non grata on PTV, but even though Nur Khan has a certain political dimension as a former governor, he is scarcely likely to raise a roar of Nur Khan wazir-i-azam anywhere he way go. They could have risked acknowledging him, and they should never have tried to black Imran out, even though he was a terror on the field. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Karachi: has the tide turned? ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Ayaz Amir DISCOUNTING the hysteria and the breast-beating of which there is no shortage in Karachi these days, all the evidence suggests that in the ongoing turmoil in the city the government after a hard slog has gained the upper hand thereby putting the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) under a great deal of pressure. This is a situation vastly different from what it was just eight months ago. At that time the police went in fear of their lives, thanas were being attacked while parts of Korangi, District Central and Orangi were no- go areas for anyone in uniform. If ever Karachi stood on the brink of anarchy it was then, a situation made all the more serious because the army, the last bastion of order, had withdrawn from the city after licking its wounds. In a state of near panic the PPP government decided on a clutch of desperate measures to contain the rising spectre of violence. The pointman, if not the architect of this policy, was the interior minister, General Naseerullah Babar, who assumed personal control of the drive against the MQM. An officer of known integrity and competence was put in charge of the Karachi police. Better coordination was ensured between the police, the Rangers and the different intelligence agencies. While the shutting down of mobile phones devastated the MQMs communication channels, the police started receiving a flow of information from the Intelligence Bureau (IB) which had greatly improved its phone-monitoring capability. It was not long before these measures started bearing fruit. The first important breakthrough against the MQM came with the arrest from Islamabad of one Hisham Zafar whose interrogation yielded a list of telephone numbers which the IB started monitoring. Then on a tip- off from a crucial source (later generously rewarded) came the arrest of Farooq Dada, reputedly a leading MQM hitman, who was picked up from a flat in Garden by SHO Anwar Ahmed Khan and subsequently shot dead in a fake encounter near the airport. Soon after this, on the basis of information yielded by an IB phone-tapping operation, the police were able to arrest Faheem Commando, another alleged MQM hitman with scores of cases against him. When the Sindh secretariat came under rocket attack in October last year, Faheem and three other MQM activists who were then in judicial custody were shot dead by the same SHO Anwar Khan in a fake encounter which triggered a storm of public criticism. Since June last year about a hundred people have been shot dead in police encounters. Even though there is evidence to suggest a new trigger-happiness on the part of the police and the Rangers, not all of these encounters have been fake or contrived affairs. But the credibility of the so-called law-enforcing agencies stands so badly damaged (mainly because of the killings of Farooq Dada and Faheem Commando) that the MQMs frequent outcries about fake encounters fall readily upon receptive ears. Add to this the highandedness and extortion that have been intrinsic features of the so-called siege- and-search operations and it is easy to see why ordinary Mohajirs view the security agencies with so much fear and loathing. This is not to deny the MQM its highly-developed martyr complex but at the same time there is no denying that this has been fed and kept alive by the actual and perceived atrocities of the law-enforcing agencies. Far from being unduly perturbed by the negative effect on the public mind of what with considerable justification can be called state- sponsored terrorism, officials who have anything to do with Karachi hold to the view that extraordinary circumstances justify extraordinary measures. They also point to the undoubted success of the present hard-line policy. Last year the police and ordinary citizens bore the brunt of terrorism. Today it is the MQM which is at the receiving end of police violence. According to a report in an Urdu newspaper, in the month of Ramazan last year 56 people died as a result of sectarian violence while 156 people were victims of other forms of terrorism. This Ramazan, while there was no sectarian violence, 38 people died in police encounters. In what were formerly no-go areas the police has now established its presence. The pattern thus has visibly changed. Small wonder then that just before Eid Altaf Hussain counselled those of his followers who were underground not to take unnecessary risks. When General Babar, whom it is all too easy to dismiss as a loud- talking blunderbuss, boasted last year that peace would be restored in Karachi in three months (a period later extended to six months) most people were inclined to scoff at him. Eight months down the road it is he who is probably laughing and the doubting Thomass who have had to swallow their ridicule. Which makes one think what a tragic phenomenon in Pakistani history the MQM has been. In the right hands it could have laid the foundations of a new, middle class-oriented politics. In the hands of its present leadership it has become a blind instrument of terror pursuing messianic goals which are based upon thoroughly unrealistic considerations. The Awami League, helped above all by geography, could carve out an independent state. The MQM, try as it might, cannot sever Karachi from the rest of Pakistan. What is more, even revolutionary parties avoid pitting themselves against the armed might of a state especially when that might is cohesive. The Bolshevik revolution succeeded when the Tsarist military disintegrated; Khomeinis revolution in Iran succeeded when the Shahs military broke up. Altaf Hussain, blazing the trail of a new revolutionary doctrine, is trying to pit his movement against the armed might of the Pakistani state. Not only is this venture inherently foolish. It also puts the MQMs constituency on a suicidal course of action. But if the MQM is embarked upon foolish seas, so are the civilian field marshals of Benazir Bhuttos government. It is folly on their part to imagine that the police and the Rangers can be kept for ever at their present pitch of activity or for them to suppose that military tactics (such as are being pressed into service at present) can be a substitute for the political measures without which the demons of violence and extremism will not be laid to rest. Admittedly, it is difficult to negotiate with a movement which draws sustenance from a very narrow chauvinism and whose actions proclaim that it is committed to the use of violence for the furtherance of its aims. In Karachi, however, what is generally understood by a political solution does not necessarily have to result from negotiations. The ingredients of it can be offered unilaterally by the government. There are basically four steps which need to be taken and which the government can take on its own: giving every job in Karachi on merit without the favouritism and the Sindhi bias which is currently to be seen; giving the people of Karachi a sense of participation in the existing state of affairs by the immediate holding of local elections; announcing a credible amnesty for all those MQM supporters who are not accused of major crimes; and curtailing the activity of the Rangers and putting credible checks on the activity of the police force. These are scarcely revolutionary measures but it requires a certain amount of wisdom to take them. Does Benazir Bhutto have it in her to show this wisdom? She and General Babar have won a temporary success but unless they rise above the ineptitude which their government is displaying in other sectors of national life, they are quite capable of squandering the opportunity that is thus opened before them. In other words, while they have won a battle they are still quite capable of losing the war. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Should we trade with India? ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Shahid Kardar BEING a politically sensitive issue the subject of potential trade with India and of granting it the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) has evoked a variety of responses from both commentators and parties likely to be affected-either adversely or favourably. Much of the reaction has tended to be emotional and devoid of content that could be seriously debated. Some of the views have been balanced while a minority has supported the opening up of trade. By far the most enlightened view on the matter has been that of the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The community of industrialists who would have ordinarily been expected to reject the granting of MFN status to India (even if Pakistan had such an option) seem to have welcomed an opportunity to improve the quality, efficiency and cost effectiveness of local industry through greater exposure to external competition. What was most heartening was the eagerness displayed by a Pakistani film producer to compete with Indian cinema as an instrument for improving the quality of local films. The key questions that need to be examined regarding the issue include the following: a) Can we deny MFN status to India in view of our obligations as a member of the WTO? b) Would national security be compromised as a consequence? c) Would trade and economic cooperation help in defusing tensions? d) Will Pakistan industry be able to compete with Indian industry? e) Should we continue to protect inefficient industry at the consumers cost? Is there any justification for continuing to punish him if industry in Pakistan somehow just does not (or refuses to) grow strong enough to survive competitive pressures? f) Are there safeguards under the umbrella of the WTO to check dumping by Indian manufacturers or Indian government supported targeted actions that threaten the durability of some important sub-sectors of Pakistani industry? To begin with we need to understand that, contrary to the impression that the term MFN might convey, according MFN status to India does not imply that it is to be granted favourable terms of trade. All it means is a non-discriminatory approach towards all members of the WTO. This non-discriminatory treatment has to be non-conditional, i.e., there can be no proviso. Pakistan has no choice in this matter. In its trading transactions, and in matters concerning the granting of access to its markets, Pakistan must treat all members of WTO equally, without prejudice. It must observe the rules of the WTO to be able to gain from the expansion in world trade. Furthermore, the basic principles governing these trade policies revolve around transparency, predictability and stability. Under WTO rules domestic industry can be protected but only through duties rather than non-tariff barriers unless the aggrieved member can provide evidence of dumping by producers of other countries. Pakistan traders are expected to favour the opening up of trade as they will get access to cheaper goods. While Pakistani industrialists are expected to be worried that the well- established Indian industry would have an edge because it is paying a significantly lower cost for critical inputs like electricity, labour and working capital, while having access to cheaper raw materials. Therefore, a stumbling block could be the lobbies of the production structures in the individual countries that have developed not because of the comparative advantage provided by the national stock of resources but simply as a result of government policies that encouraged import substitution. On the surface the two economies may look to be in competition with each other. In view of the lack of adequate information this is understandable. As there is limited economic contact between the two countries greater emphasis is, therefore, being laid on the problems likely to be encountered because of the differences in tariff structures. However, there is sufficient evidence of some complimentary in trading activities. There are sub-sectors in agriculture and industry in which trade and cooperation between the two can be mutually beneficial. The fear of the Pakistani manufacturing sector being swamped and rendered uncompetitive by Indian goods is highly exaggerated. There are several reasons for this. The average Pakistani consumer has tended to be more quality conscious. Our industry has, for a long time, had to compete against both smuggled goods and official imports under the highly generous baggage schemes (for resident and overseas Pakistani travelling or returning to Pakistan). Industry has, therefore, learnt to survive against the heavy competition that it has had to face on account of rather porous borders. Pakistani governments have historically not only had a rather lax attitude to widespread smuggling (including that from India) but have also followed fairly liberal import policies in respect of capital goods, technology import and production processes. However, one industrial unit whose future is likely to be seriously compromised by the opening of trade with India is that white elephant called Pakistan Steel Mills. The political implications of its closure, particularly the overnight potential unemployment of thousands of workers, look daunting today. There are several advantages of making trade freer between the two countries. To begin with, the advantages of geography  cheaper transportation costs  and trade complementarity in goods which each country has a comparative advantage are overwhelming. The shorter distance will also render it unnecessary for industry to carry high levels of inventories, thereby reducing the cost of operations. Cooperation in the agriculture sector could turn out to be particularly beneficial to Pakistani farmers. The success achieved by India in raising yields per acre offers opportunities that Pakistani agriculturists can exploit, while the Pakistan textile sector should be expected to benefit (through increased production and higher productivity and profits) from an improved access to the huge Indian market. Opening up trade with India will also have a salutary effect on prices. By depressing inflation rates it will also ease the inflationary burden of the hapless consumers in Pakistan. Both governments will also gain. Revenue from import duties and sales taxes will grow when the estimated US$ 1 billion worth of trade in smuggled goods flows through official channels. This unofficial trade will continue even if both governments unnecessarily delay the decision to make it official. The Indian machine tool and capital goods producing industries are regarded as highly developed and efficient. Therefore, access to cheaper capital goods should, by reducing the cost of investment, also improve the productivity and efficiency of Pakistani industry. However, because of political tensions and the high degree of mistrust between the two countries, particularly following the testing of the Prithvi missile, there may be a lot of reluctance to purchase plant and equipment from India, even if trade is opened up. This hesitation would be understandable in view of the perceived operational problems that would have to be faced by potential buyers of machinery in respect of access to parts and components in the event of heightened friction. Another hindrance to trade expansion could be an attempt by developed countries to neutralise the advantages of intra-regional trade by tying aid flows and capital finance availability to purchases from donor countries. The one major concern that Pakistan will have to guard against could be predatory trade practices that India, because of its size, could afford to indulge in. The Indian government could take a conscious decision to help a segment of the Indian manufacturing sector destroy Pakistans capability in that sector, e.g., textiles, through dumping and discriminatory tariffs. To avert such an eventuality the Chambers of Industry in Pakistan will have to be more vigilant, if not fully alert, and suitably equipped in technical skills to detect as well as collect adequate evidence of such practices quickly enough to prepare a case that could be taken to the WTO to support defensive action. Views differ on the question of sequencing in respect of diffusion in political tensions and opening up of trade. One group argues that the economic benefits that will accrue from trade will provide a stake for lobbies to demand a lowering of political tensions. This writer subscribes to this point of view. However, another group contends, equally persuasively, that security issues should be settled first. In support of their argument they refer to the case of South-east Asian countries, who solved their political and security issues prior to the opening up of intra-regional trade. However, the nature, level and products in which trade between the two countries may eventually take place will essentially depend upon the availability of information on production facilities and technologies and the ease with which people in general, and manufacturers in particular, can travel from their home country to the other. The example of South-east Asia shows that a lot of trade in the area is intra-regional, suggesting that countries in a region grow together and that no one country in a depressed region can grow rapidly on its own without the region growing as a whole. In other words, if trade between the two countries is to be promoted their governments will have to play a much more positive role. The viability of the process will depend upon a continuing political commitment in support of an expanded degree of trade. However, it will take time for trade to become freer because I suspect some segments of Indian industry  producing inferior quality products  may be just as apprehensive as some Pakistani industries about the opening up of borders. A steady step-by-step approach is, therefore, likely to succeed, partly also because it is likely to get greater acceptance and attract a wider support base.

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Send a message to: majordomo@nelofer.erum.com.pk Leave the subject blank and in the body write: subscribe progressive How to post articles to Pakistan Progressive Once you have subscribed to the progressive mailing list, and you want to post an article, simply write your article and e-mail to : progressive@nelofer.erum.com.pk Your article will automatically be distributed to all subscribers via e-mail. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960224 ------------------------------------------------------------------- A fit Pakistan side can retain title ------------------------------------------------------------------- Zawwar Hasan ARE the hosts or co-hosts of the World Cup jinxed to win this prestigious event? The history says so. But some clue to the answer will be available by March 6 when the contest reaches the quarterfinal stage. Not that any of the three co-hosts, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka, risk elimination from the starting point for a serious assault on the world championship. That would go beyond even what is generally described as the glorious uncertainties of cricket. The preliminary round matches would unfold the contenders' current form in batting, bowling and fielding. Of the three hosts the fast up- and-coming Sri Lankans would be the only side who would reach the quarter-final stage without a serious challenge. The cricket lovers in the cricket-crazy Sri Lanka have been deprived of the opportunity to see Australia and the West Indies in action because of their refusal to visit the violence-hit island. However, the Sri Lankans in their recent engagements with the two countries in a triangular contest in Australia have already shown their prowess. Confirming their victory over the West Indies in the final of the Sharjah tournament, the Sri Lankans barred the West Indian's way to the finals in Australia. Had rank partial umpiring, ball-tampering charges and no-balling their best attacking bowler not ruffled the visiting Sri Lankans, the Australians would have found the fighting islanders more than a handful to manage. Despite constant pressures exerted one the Sri Lankans both on and off the field, they proved to be tough opponents. How the re-grouped West Indians and the highly rated Australians fare in group A against India and Sri Lanka will be watched with keen interest. So will be the matches that Pakistan play in group B against England, South Africa and New Zealand. Even the matches where the minnows appear to have special significance. The run rate and the winning margin would be crucial in deciding a tie-up among the main contenders. The three co-hosts face a serious challenge from the Australians and the West Indians for the sixth World Cup. The West Indies won the first two editions of the tournament. India dethroned them to win the Third. The fourth was won by Australia while Pakistan are the current holders. Will Pakistan retain the crystal cup is the most debated question in homes, offices and bazaars of the country. The answer lies in a set of imponderable factors. Their permutations and combinations make it even more tantalising. The question presumes that Pakistan will figure in the finals. Not a far-fetched presumption at all. It has no Lara or Tendulkar in its batting line-up but it has a Javed Miandad who has totalled 1029 runs to top-score in the World Cup. Pakistan is also blessed with an opening pair that can throw any attack into disarray. Both Aamir Sohail and Saeed Anwar are known to have plundered runs by lofting over the heads of a restricted field in the preliminary overs. With Inzamam, Salim Malik, Miandad, Ejaz or Rameez to follow the Pakistan team is capable of setting up a winning total. On a good day the late order batsmen like Wasim Akram and Rashid Latif too can add up some quick runs. Like the Pakistan batting the bowling has variety and penetration. Even on the true wickets in the sub-continent Wasim, Waqar and Aqib are capable of generating pace and moving the ball both in the air and off the wicket. The spin attack, led by the much-improved Mushtaq Ahmad, and Mushtaq Saqlain and Aamir Sohail is capable of penetrating through any defence. Given a support by the fielders the bags of wickets claimed by Wasim and Waqar would have been bursting on the seams. The number of runs conceded through misfielding and dropped catches have not only spoiled the averages of the Pakistani bowlers but have also told on the success rate of Pakistan in one-day matches. Poor fielding is the biggest chink in Pakistan's otherwise strong armour. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Pakistan gives away at least 25 runs through bad fielding. This is not to count the runs conceded by giving lives' to the opposing batsmen and the failure to hit the slumps directly to prevent quick singles. In the recent weeks Pakistan's manager and coach Intikhab Alam has sought to assure the Pakistani supporters that the weakness in fielding has been removed. As we know, bad fielding is a chronic disease and cannot be cured in days and weeks. Not unless the selectors make it a point to deliberately exclude bad fields from the team even if they perform well with bat or ball will the importance of fielding be realised by cricketers who aspire to play at the national or international level. With its fielding being so poor Pakistan can hardly afford to field a half fit bowler or batsman. Unfortunately the followers of the game in Pakistan have serious doubts about the physical fitness of Waqar Yunus and Inzamamul Haq. Both the cricketers are highly talented and can walk into any worldside. Their past record speaks for it. At this stage of their career they are the best judge of their physical fitness. To be fair to themselves, their captain and the team-mates and above all to the country which has provided them the name and fame they should not make themselves available for selection if they are not one hundred per cent fit. The way Waqar Yunus has performed after his re-entry into the team does not promise much. His quest for his two hundredth Test wicket in New Zealand was pathetic. The manner in which he was hit all over the ground made one rub his eyes in disbelief. Once reputed to be the dreaded paceman he conceded more than 50 runs in his allotted ten overs. The situation has not improved much in the warm-up matches. There is, therefore, a big question mark over his inclusion. Unless he is satisfied with his own performance at the nets in the recent past he should not declare his availability. His fans will not like their hero lose his halo and be disillusioned. The same goes for Inzamam. He too is remembered with affection and admiration for his innings in the 1992 World Cup. But for his wonderful innings against New Zealand and England Pakistan would have never been able to lift the Cup. As a mature cricketer he should know that he can neither afford to play with the team's chances or with his own reputation. All the players will have to be tough not only physically but mentally also. Each one of them is highly talented. To win the Cup they will have to exploit their talent in a disciplined manner. No room for mini-collapses. No thoughtless run outs. No wide balls and no balls. Almost all the teams, except the new-comers, are evenly matched. The Cup will go to the team that is more disciplined and cohesive. In 1992 nobody gave a chance to Pakistan when they had just three points from five matches - two from Zimbabwe and one from rain-god. Instead of surrendering, Imran's men fought like cornered tigers and went on to win each and every match till the World Cup was theirs. The present team has the talent and the spirit and provided eleven fit men take the field, they have a fair chance to overcome their weak fielding and retain the Cup. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960225 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Team in fine fettle, says Wasim ------------------------------------------------------------------- Walter Fernandez KARACHI, Feb. 24: Pakistan captain Wasim Akram in a post match television interview said that the team is in fine fettle and is fully capable of retaining the World Cup. He made these comments after Pakistan had notched up an emphatic victory over qualifiers United Arab Emirates (UAE) in their opening tussle in the quest to retain the trophy. We were pretty sharp on the field and held onto our catches besides bowling and batting well in this rain-shortened encounter. Yes, it was frustrating to wait for about fours hours in the pavilion before the match got under way. However, it did not wear us down to that extent and we were intensely focused for the task at hand, Wasim remarked. Sir Richard Hadlee of New Zealand, one of the greatest fast bowlers in post-war cricket, was of a similar opinion in his expert comments on television today. He said: The one drawback in this highly talented Pakistan team when they visited New Zealand last year was the ragged fielding. Pakistan seems to have done a lot of hard work on this count and look a superb outfit to retain the cup. There is plenty of flare and all round skills in the squad. Master-batsman Javed Miandad, who has staged a comeback to international cricket after 19 months in the wilderness appears to be as fit as a fiddle while fielding and held a splendid catch in the deep to prove his fitness. He was also seen advising Wasim Akram, the man who has assumed his mantle as the skipper, on the field in the fashion he used to talk to the former Pakistan captain Imran Khan. For one, Waqar Younis, who has been struggling with his form for the better part of a year and had looked a shadow of his great past, has regained the rhythm and venom in his bowling. He bowled an inspired and fiery first spell. For another, Mushtaq Ahmed, who captured three for 16 in a seven over stint to earn the Man-of-the-Match award at the finale, sounded a warning to all and sundry that he also will be vying alongside Australias Shane Warne and Indias Anil Kumble for the crown of the worlds best leg-spinner in a World Cup competition billed as the tournament of spinners. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960228 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Miandad's sense of commitment ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Ayaz Memon WHEN the opening ceremony for the World Cup was being held in the Eden Gardens, Javed Miandad was missing. Instead, he was on a pilgrimage. This was a most astonishing occurrence for Miandads pilgrimage venue, over the last two decades, has usually been a cricket field. Moreover, in this 20-year-period, he had never shown any proclivity for seeking help to play the game. Is crickets most renowned maverick going soft? Cricketing middle age can tame even the unconventional into submission. Miandad, 38, two years out of international cricket, at least five kg overweight, and nursing a recurring knee injury, was chosen for the World Cup ahead of players like the young and talented Basit Ali. The wisdom of such choice was hotly debated, from Karachi to Peshawar in a cricket-crazy country, and doubtless in other far-flung places across the globe where Pakistanis reside. He could become the first cricketer to play in all six World Cup tournaments, a unique record for a country which thirst for such recognition. But was Miandad still good enough? For the first time in his career, Miandad found that his very presence in the national team was under scrutiny. He now had a point to prove. The pilgrimage had perhaps become necessary. The good thing about mavericks, however, is that even when imbued with a sense of goodness, they cant shed their innate sense of fun and unpredictability. For instance, Miandad sent a missive to Indian politician Bal Thackeray that all rancour should be buried in the interest of the game, and that he should lead the rapprochement for India and Pakistan to resume cricketing ties. If that seems like misplaced gumption, Miandad also suggested that Pakistans cricketing problems were now over, and that they were going to win the World Cup. For those who know their cricket, and the man, the second proposition from Miandad may not seem as outrageous as the first. Even if Pakistan have tested more troughs than crests in recent times, and the team still appears fragmented, unfocused and lacking in spirit, the knowledgeable would sound a nole of caution. If there is one man who can galvanise this disunited side into a winning unit, it is Javed Miandad. Such a formidable reputation demands sustained excellence and there have been few more consistent, or influential, batsmen in the history of the game. Miandad began as a batting prodigy, incidentally in the first World Cup in 1975, made a Test match hundred on debut, a double hundred in his third Test match, six Test match, six Test hundreds before he was 19, and is now ranked the third highest run-getter ever. In making these runs and hundreds, he has not only established himself as one of the games most outstanding batsmen, but also a most colourful cricketer, either adored or abhorred, but never ignored. Miandads impact on Pakistan, and even world cricket, has been enormous. He is an iconoclast as batsman and individual. His technique is unique, and his behaviour on the field is often in contravention of accepted cricketing norms. But so successful has he been in both endeavours, that he has created what could be called the Miandad School of Playing Cricket. The credo of this school is simple. You have to play to win. You have to win anyhow. No cost is big enough for the team cause. Who says cricket is a gentlemans game anyway? It is a credo that has revolted puritans through Miandads 20-year- career, but has hardly fazed the man himself. His proud record is testimony to the success of his methods. In batting and sundry other battles. And thats why the bottomline defines him as one of the games truly greats. Miandads personality finds fascinating and splendid expression in his cricket. He is vivacious and wickedly cunning. The puckish sense of humour is genuine and spontaneous, but is often laced with dishonourable intent. At least thats what opponents, who have felt his sharp tongue would like to believe. As far as Miandad is concerned, all is fair in love and war, and when playing cricket, he is certainly not out to make love. Like the boxer Muhammad Ali, he tries to destroy opponents even before they enter the arena, employing a rapier-like repartee and an intrinsic understanding of human fallibility to twist most situations to his advantage. Miandad, his opponents will vouch, is a scrapper  streetsmart, terribly ambitious and with an intense loathing of losing. He has a delightful lisp, but his taunts and jibes can sting, deflate, destroy. And if he does not get you with his gamesmanship, Miandad the batsman takes over, awesome in his talent, phenomenal in his run-getting, ruthless in his treatment of the bowling. He has soft hands that enable him to change grip easily, adapt to any kind of wicket or bowling, use the bat like a sword or a baton, depending on the circumstances and his mood. When he was young, he moved on twinkling feet which made nonsense of a bowlers length. He is extraordinarily adaptable, shifting easily from being the games most innovative to the most punishing batsman. When Miandad gets his eye in, there is nothing but heartbreak for bowlers. The moot point then. Does Miandad still have the zest and fitness to play at this level? For the past two years, he has been in and out of competitive cricket. For two years before that, his form had shown a frustrating and prolonged slump. In the last year, he has been coaching the son of the Sultan of Brunei (he always did value the greenbacks, and without pretensions), which is a cosy and rewarding job, but hardly the right kind of preparation for the World Cup. There were endless doubts and controversies about Miandads recall, but what finally won the day for him was his sense of commitment to the cause. Even his bitterest critic will attest that when it comes to playing for team, flag and country, there is no better man, injury and old age notwithstanding. In the 1980s, when international cricket was blessed with brilliant batsmen, it used to be said that if you needed runs to save a match, you had to befriend Sunil Gavaskar, if you needed runs to win a match, you had to get Vivian Richards, but if you needed somebody to save your life, there was only one man who could help  Javed Miandad. Can the lion still roar this winter? DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960221 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Batting order: Zaheer has doubts ------------------------------------------------------------------- Samiul Hasan The greatest improviser of one-day cricket in the not too distant a past, Zaheer Abbas, thinks that the best possible team has been selected to retain the sixth World Cup. However, the stylish stroke-maker has doubts about the prowess of the packed batting, not in the sense of form or experience, but in terms of batting order. You have Inzamamul Haq, Javed Miandad, Salim Malik, and Ijaz Ahmad. What confuses me is their placement in a given batting order? says the bespectacled Zaheer who had slammed seven centuries in 62 one-day appearances for Pakistan. As the situation suggests today, says Zaheer, Ijaz Ahmad would come at No. 3, followed by Inzamamul Haq, Salim Malik, and Javed Miandad. Miandad is too great a batsman to come down the order. Secondly, he has the ability to carry the innings together and for that he needs time and overs. But if he bats at No. 6, there will be hardly any overs left for him to graft his innings, adjust to the conditions before he could launch any assault. Similar is the case with Salim Malik. That leaves only Inzamamul Haq and Ijaz Ahmad who can be demoted down the order. But I have my reservations if they would be able to deliver the goods in the middle of the slog overs where there is a need of around seven or eight runs an over, argues the former Pakistan captain. I think this is the most important issue which needs to be sorted out with the consent of all the four batsmen, says Zaheer, and adds: Its the psychology of an accomplished batsman that he wants enough overs before using the long handle. Zaheers stress for an immediate decision is based on the logic that when the mega event gets under way and Pakistan get down to business, there will be no room for experiments. It would be suicidal if batting order is changed in every match. A proper strategy should be chalked out immediately. The batsmen should be informed about their positions so that they are mentally prepared to bat at those positions. Zaheer is of the firm view that except the batting confusion, there was no other loophole. In Miandad (Javed) and Malik (Salim), Pakistan has the most experienced batsmen. The two are now matured and have the ability to carry the entire team under their wings. After playing 200 and more one-day internationals, they have perfected their art and dexterity in the game. They can accelerate scoring, repair the initial damage and steer the team to victory without further trouble. Ijaz and Inzamam, Zaheer continues, are talented, swashbuckling and true entertainers. Inzamam has been showing his mettle since the 1992 World Cup while Ijaz Ahmad, who through his dedication to perform well, has succeeded in cementing his place in the team after a series of ins and outs. About the openers, Zaheer feels that Pakistan is quite lucky that it has blasters like Aamir Sohail and Saeed Anwar. They have the potential to tear apart any type of attack. In addition to this, Pakistan has a third opener in Ramiz Raja who has played over 165 one- day internationals. Though the combination of left and right will disturb the bowler whose line of attack will be continuously changing, I think, Ramiz will only play if either of the two is out of form or injured, thinks Zaheer, who scored 2,572 one-day runs at 47.62. Discussing the Pakistan bowling, Zaheer is of the view that it has always produced the best but it has always been the batting letting the team down. The combination exists and I dont see any justification to change it. Wasim Akram and Aqib Javed will share the new ball to be followed by Waqar Younis and Mushtaq Ahmad. Aamir Sohail and Salim Malik could share the remaining 10 overs. Asked what happens if Waqar Younis fails to regain his composure and rhythm, Zaheer says: He will play because he has been selected. Secondly, Wasim will hate to disturb the bowling combination by playing with two pacers and two spinners with Sohail and Malik the other bowlers. Ata is not in the class of Waqar. If you make a change, you try to get as much closer as possible to the talent of the player you are replacing with. I think, there is world of a difference between Waqar and Ata. Zaheer, who represented Pakistan in the 1975, 1979 and 1983 World Cups, does not believe in any specific strategy. What strategy or gameplan you are talking about? In modern day cricket, no gameplan is prepared in advance. It is made only on that day. In fact, you come to the ground. Then inspect the wicket. Analyse oppositions strength and weakness. Similarly, your own. After that you decide what you are going to do. I think its time that the so-called theory of a strong batting line- up chasing the target and a good attack should be changed. Why not bat first with a formidable batting and post 275 odd in 50 overs and bring the opposition under pressure or why not bowl first with an attack like Pakistan and dismiss the opposition for around 175? Zaheer suggested. Zaheer, who has picked Pakistan as favourites, maintains that Pakistans job would become much easier if the wickets are prepared keeping in view its requirements. Its the only home advantage Pakistan has. Our batsmen and bowlers love wickets which are slow and have low bounce. It is chiefly because during the domestic circuit, they get these type of wickets. Thats why when they go to England, Australia and New Zealand, they take time to adjust. However, they face no such problems when visiting India, Sri Lanka, West Indies where you find wickets like Pakistan. Zaheer believes that Pakistan should forget with whom they will be clashing in the quarter-finals and onwards. I admit that the addition of quarter-finals have increased an elimination round, Pakistan should play match-by-match. Who is coming from the other pool should not be Pakistans concern. They have beaten all the teams that are in Indias pool, so it should not be their concern. I dont think that Shiv Sena threats will affect Pakistans show. In fact, it might help in improving it. However, Zaheer was extremely critical of Pakistan field. At present Pakistan is the poorest fielding side. The fielders have to support the bowlers otherwise all the efforts of the bowler goes in vain. If a tournament like World Cup has to be won, fielding will have to be excellent. Even half of the chance has to be collected. Zaheers four favourites, besides Pakistan, are Australia, India and South Africa. Australia would have been my firm favourites if they had included David Boon and Dean Jones in place of Ricky Ponting, Shaun Lee and Stuart Law. The three are extremely raw. I think it is an ill-timed decision. India has the home advantage and a brilliant track record at home while South Africa are a fast emerging nation. They have the desire to win at any cost. They are true professionals. West Indies are not Zaheers favourite because it is not consistent. Even the inclusion of Brian Lara might not lift the West Indies because there is no other batsman who can give the record-holder a helping hand. I had some hopes in the West Indies but they too vanished when Carl Hooper withdrew. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- S. Africa can beat Pakistan, says Cronje ------------------------------------------------------------------- RAWALPINDI, Feb 25: South African Captain Hansie Cronje said his boys have the guts to beat Pakistan in the World Cup at Karachi but still considered the defending champions a real challenge specially when they are playing at their home ground. So far we have not decided as to what would be our tactics against Pakistan as we are evolving our strategy from match to match. But we can beat them, Cronje said after they comprehensively beat sickly English side in the one day game here. Our team have beaten them when they came to play in South Africa but havent had the better of them here in Pakistan. He said: Bob (manager) and I and the rest of the team would sit together and work out a strategy how to bowl and bat against Pakistan. When we compete against the best in the world we would have to make sure that we go well prepared. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dutch captain tips Pakistan, S.A. favourites ------------------------------------------------------------------- Staff Reporter LAHORE, Feb 26: Holland team captain Roland Lefebvre said here that South Africa and Pakistan could win the World Cup but one could not also rule out the chances of India. At a brief talk with mediamen at the end of the match, which his team lost by 8 wickets, he said his team faced the fastest bowlers of the world Wasim Akram and Waqar Yunus and was able to put on a modest total of 145 in 50 overs. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960227 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Should the UAE, Kenya & Holland be here? ------------------------------------------------------------------- By Lahori THERE have been adverse comments on the participation of the UAE, Kenya and Holland in the World Cup. Some say that this has devalued the tournament and killed spectator interest in the game. This is really rather unjust and the UAE captain, Sultan Zarwani, was well within his right to react sharply to some of the remarks made by Sadiq Muhammad and Sarfaraz Nawaz. The two are reported to have said that the three sides were creating low-total records in the World Cup. These Rasputins should shut up or comment fairly on the matches. Cricket is an old game but it has not made rapid progress because it is played only in a handful of countries, Zarwani said end I agree with him entirely. Let us go back to the First World Cup in 1975. The countries which took part in the tournament were England, Australia, the West Indies, India, Pakistan and New Zealand with Sri Lanka and East Africa being the fledglings. The first match was played between England and India. England made 334 for four while India were restricted to 132 for three with Gavaskar carrying his bat for 36. And mind you, it was a 60-overs-a-side match. I write these lines on Sunday and to date, the UAE, Holland and Kenya havent done half as badly as India did 20 years ago. Kenyas performances against Australia and India particular were commendable. The Sri Lankans were shot out for 86 in their first game. They were the babes of cricket then but even so, they put up magnificent resistance against Australia at the Oval on June 11, 1975. Excerpts from a Wisden report: Australia won by 52 runs but their victory did not gain them many admirers. Facing a total of 328, the Sri Lankan batsmen....put up a brave show against the hostile Australian bowlers. They cut and hooked short balls with marked skill and accuracy, but Thomson caused two to retire hurt. The tiny Mendis was hit on the head when he ducked into a rising ball and Wettimuny played another riser onto his body and now assisted by a runner, was hit on the right step by the next ball. As he staggered in and out of his crease. Thomson threw down the wicket and appealed for a run out that was disallowed. Both batsmen went to St. Thomass Hospital.... Wettimuny who had made 53, never returned to the crease nor did Mendis. He had contributed 32. Sri Lanka might have won had the Australians been a little more sporting. But then, everything that the White Man does is legit and honourable and everything that the black man does is illegal and dishonourable. East Africa, bowled out for 120, were beaten by India by ten wickets. Australia were shunted out for 192 by the West Indies  seven runs short of the 199 Kenya made against India the other day. The Africans could have made a match of it, had they brought on their slow bowlers, especially Asif Karim a bit early. That would have put the brakes on Tendulkar. I dont say the Indian genius is vulnerable against spin bowling but he does slow down. He is happier against pace than against slow bowling and if you are accurate, you can get him. Bowl short at him and he will murder you. Poor East Africa were shot out for 94 by England but they played 52.3 overs. Then Sri Lanka were bowled out for 138 by Pakistan. Even so, East Africas 94 was not the lowest total of the tournament. The `honour was reserved for England who were shunted out for 93 by Australia in the first semi-final with Gilmour taking six for 14 in 12 overs, six maidens. So low scores there will be in such tournaments and the UAE, Kenya and Holland are not here to set low-scoring records. Such sides cannot improve unless they play in the senior league and learn by defeat. Look at the 1975 babes, Sri Lanka. They are no longer pushovers. Earlier this season, they beat Pakistan 2-1 in the Test as well as the one-day series. They won the Champions Trophy at Sharjah and then pipped the West Indies into the finals of the World Series in Australia. Again, there were accusations that the hosts had not won fair and square. Zimbabwe, too, are improving every season and have some very talented cricketers. The UAE may have a long way to go yet but give Kenya and Holland a couple of years and they may yet surprise the pundits. Let no-one laugh at them. They are here to learn and they must get the respect which their due. xxxxxx And now the crazy perennial. The best combined side-ever for a one-day game. My choice is for you to approve or disapprove. But here it is: Roy Predericks Gordon Greenidge Vivian Richards Clive Lloyd (captain) Ian Chappell Greg Chappell Rodney Marsh Derek Underwood Denis Lillee J.R. Thomson. Andy Roberts But look at the players I have omitted. Viswanath of India, one of the best I have seen. Sunil Gavaskar? Well, he was too good to be a one- day cricketer. Gavaskar was for the gods, not for ordinary mortals like me. Some of the others I have not selected are K.D. Walters, Ross Edwards, Alan Turner, Alan Knott, Majid Khan, Zaheer Abbas, Imran Khan, Sarfraz Nawaz, Mushtaq Mohammad, Asif Iqbal, Wasim Bari, Dulip Mendis, Glenn Turner, Kallicharan, Kanhai, Richard Hadlee and, God have mercy on me, Javed Miandad. Nor would I have missed Malcolm Marshall but he didnt play in the 1975 World Cup. You see the deterioration? Dont tell me I have missed Brian Lara and Sachin Tendulkar. They are good but they are not great. They have got the money, Tendulkar, especially, but Gavaskar and Hanif Mohammad were my men. They were high music. The Laras and the Tendulkars are pop singers and if you prefer pop to Beethoven, I am not to blame. I dont like instant food. It is as simple as that and one-day cricket is instant cricket. It has raked in the money but it has killed the game as an art form. This is a generalisation, though. There have been and are players who lend grace to the one-day game. The Waugh brothers, for example, Majid Khan, Glenn Turner, Martin Crowe, Kanhai and Kallicharan and beautiful but brutish, Vivian Richards, name but a few. The standards are falling but we are still managing to get our Wasim Akrams, our Tendulkars and our Laras. So lets share the magic. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960224 ------------------------------------------------------------------- A dark horse may run away with the Cup ------------------------------------------------------------------- Ayaz Memon SINCE the Australians are already under duress in coming to the sub- continent to play cricket this season, let's alleviate their tension by giving them good news first. Most bookies, including Ladbrokes, most critics, including the Poms and Sri Lankans rate them as favourites to win the World cup even if they have forfeited their first two matches. That achieved, now the bad news for Mark Taylor and his boys. They might, in fact not win the tournament, Bookies' estimations, especially in cricket, are notoriously fickle. India's win in 1983 was achieved at odds of 1-60, Australia in 1987 were touted at a marginally lower price, while for Pakistan in 1992, there were surely no takers, except Sunil Gavaskar. The Dark Horse syndrome, therefore, haunts the World Cup. Three rank outsiders have won the last three tournaments. Will the impending World Cup be any different? Already, there is a wave of public opinion in favour of Sri Lanka to assume the Dark Horse mantle this season. Undoubtedly, this has something to do with their rise to eminence last year, and more pertinently, the courageous performances in Australia on the last tour. Sri Lanka are an effervescent, talented side. The batting runs deep, there is tremendous support for the team at home, and a spate of wins has kindled the desire to excel. The flip side is that Arjuna Ranatunga's side has had a harrowing time Down Under, and there is now added pressure from the complications that riddle the World Cup games in Sri Lanka. Are they then in the right frame of mind for this major tournament? There are also cricketing factors. The bowling remains weak, even if the beleaguered Muttiah Muralitharan is played, and the fielding is atrocious. More than anything else, I believe that the Lankans may have peaked too soon. In Australia, towards the end of the tour, they looked angry and jaded. Much as current sentiment and sympathy veers towards the Sri Lankan cause, I would look at four other teams to upset the calculations of the bookies, prick the pride of the Aussies  South Africa, Pakistan, England and India. The West Indies, with the return of Brian Lara, will be more than twice the bubbling side which crashed bizarrely to so many defeats in the recent World Series tournament. Lara's very presence is going to elevate the morale of his side, never mind his personal problems with skipper Richie Richardson. Lara's batsmanship  all silken touch, superb timing and a dazzling range of strokes  is perhaps unmatched in contemporary cricket. If he finds his rhythm early, the West Indies could reach the 225-250 tally more consistently than they have seemed likely in recent times. But even this may not be good enough. The bowling, with Ambroze and Walsh clearly on the decline, lacks venom. The support bowlers are not in the same category, and the fielding, to put it mildly, is simply not in the class that has come to be expected to the West Indies. South Africa, the most hardy side in the world today, appeared formidable. They may lack star value  though Jonty Rhodes and Allan Donald are household names here  but each player, in his own way is a star nonetheless. The batting appears a little fragile. But with the brilliant all rounder Brian McMillan batting at number six, this could be misleading. South Africa's bowling, based on pace of course, is arguably the best in the tournament and the fielding, without argument, the best. Add to this, their great determination to excel, and here is a team to beat. There might be a query how England have even included in this elite category. They have had a traumatic tour of South Africa recently, and are best already with injury problems. But the Englishmen can never be discounted in limited-overs cricket. Three finals out of five is a fabulous record, and if they have failed to win even once, it could be because in the past England relied far too much on experience, very little on youth. This time, they have come here with a good blend of both. Skipper Mike Atherton, Graeme Hick, Alec Stewart and Robin Smith provide the batting meat and maturity. Graham Thorpe, Darren Gough and Dominic Cork in particular give the team gusto and zest. and let's not forget. There's something called the law of averages. Pakistan, composed of brilliant but enigmatic individuals, are a team on the mend, and dangerously for the others, slowly reaching peak form. In skipper Wasim Akram, they have the world's finest owner, in Javed Miandad, the world's most creative batsman, whose slow reflexes and tired knees might not support the team in the field for all the games but whose brilliant cricketing brain remains a threat even from the confines of the dressing room. Akram has in support Waqar Younis who has reportedly recovered from injury and bowling those deadly in swinging Yorkers at full throttle. Aqib, accurate and parsimonious, should make up the pace attack. Then there is Mushtaq Ahmed, the leg spinner, who matched Shane Warne wicket for wicket and trick for trick in the last series, and off- spinner Saqlain Mushtaq who is already rated as the world's best. That, if it clicks, represents the world's best balanced attack. The batting is awesome too, Saeed Anwar and Aamir Sohail make a dashing duo of left-handed openers. Few people hit the ball harder than Inzamam-ul-Haq, more skilfully than Miandad or more elegantly than Salim Malik. Ijaz Ahmed, his career revived, is on song, and Rameez Raja, after relinquishing the captaincy, looks more comfortable with himself and full of runs. While Pakistan's talent has rarely been in doubt, their ability to play as a team always is. But then as the 1992 tournament sowed, when they have their backs to the wall, and when cricket becomes a cause, there can be no more ruthless side. And finally, India. There is surely no better batting side in the tournament. From the blazing magnum of Sacin Tandulkar, through the delectable virtuosity of Azaruddin, right down to the pinch-hitting ability of Javagal Srinath and Salil Ankola, India's line-up sends signal of match- winning proficiency. Look at the other personnel in this department  Navjot Sidu, Vinod Kamli, Sanjay Manjrekar, Ajay Jadeja, Manoj Prabhakar, Naan Mongia  to make the picture clearer. It is a truly formidable line-up comprising a master blaster, an artist and sundry players of genuine class. It is a batting line-up capable of getting 250 plus scores every time, if Tendulkar decides he must bat more than 5 furious overs, and the others realise that the dismissal of Tendulkar is not really the end of the game. And this time, India even have a splendid bowling attack, with three pacemen, including the hungry-for-success Srinath, and three spinners, including the most dangerous bowler on Indian wicket, Anil Kumble.' Indeed, India have perhaps the most gifted team in the tournament, if they can raise their fielding a couple of notches. But perhaps even more critical is the need for self-belief, and creating the urge to win. A good way to reaching that state would have been for all the Indian players to recite a simple mantra over the last couple of months, "We will win the World Cup," least a 15 times a day. Let's see if the Indians have done this. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960226 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Where all the spectators have gone? ------------------------------------------------------------------- Think of Gary Kirstens feelings when he broke two World Cup and a South African record on a single day in front of about 1500 souls at the Rawalpindi Club ground, which ironically included about 1000 policemen, PCB staffers, vendors and the family members of local administration. What a pity ! One wonders where have all the spectators gone. The Pakistan Cricket Board chief has a strange logic to justify the absence of large crowds at the four matches so far played in Pakistan. Firstly it was Ramazan. Majority of Pakistanis fast and would not come to sit at playgrounds for the entire day. Then three of the four matches played during Ramazan involved  minor teams. You will see people flocking the venues after Eid, the indomitable Abbasi told me on phone in his ever-assured style. One would very much like to share the PCB chiefs optimism. What one fails to understand is that in the same period the six matches played in India, of which four involved the minor teams, attracted many times more cricket fans. The crowd at just one centre, in Cuttack, a small city in eastern India, was more than the total number of spectators present at the four matches played in Pakistan between February 15 to February 22. At least two of the three minor teams Holland and Kenya played like professionals and but for the lack of exposure gave a good account of themselves. Ramazan is now over. On Saturday Pakistan played their first match in Gujranwala , a city known for its love of cricket and the enthusiasm of its residents for cricket matches. But according to the most optimistic account not more than 8 to 9 thousand people were there to watch Pakistan launch its title defence. One really feels concerned. Where have all the spectators gone after all? Why there is not the euphoria generally associated with such sporting extravaganzas like the World Cup. Frankly speaking the organisers for the Pakistan side of the contest have failed to rise to the occasion. They have not done enough by way of publicity to involve cricket fans so that they associate themselves not only for the teams success but the ongoing contest as well. The Pakistan Cricket Board seems to have the strange notion that once they have acquired sponsorship of some 50 million dollars from ITC, Coca Cola they are not pushed if the cricket fans are catered to or not.World Cup has been turned into a commercial proposition more than a sporting event. Anybody who has any link with the PCB bosses is out to make some fast buck. And the PCB chief is generous enough to oblige who has any pull. This is the second World Cup Pakistan is hosting. But in the 1987 edition there was no such chaos as was seen this time. There were no IMGs World Tels or Big Bangs, being dished out huge amount to do the job which by any logic should have been performed by the PCB and its affiliates, the regional associations and the organisations as was the case in 1987. And to top it all no genuine and practical efforts seem to have been made to promote sales of tickets. So much so that scores of cricket fans daily phone newspaper offices to find out from where they can buy tickets. And whose idea it was not to sell tickets at the venues? Let us take the case of a city like Karachi where the National Bank has assigned half a dozen branches to sell the tickets. If someone is residing in Landhi, he will have to come all the way to say, Saddar, to buy a ticket. And then go to National Stadium the other day to watch the match. This is nothing but discouraging people driving them away from the pleasure of watching their favourite sport. Why are cricket fans being subjected to this strenuous exercise is anybodys guess? But as far as the PCB is concerned it is already assured of huge profits even before the tournament started and they could care less for the comfort (or discomfort) of those who want to see their cricket heroes in action. DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS*DWS 960220 ------------------------------------------------------------------- No clear winners can be picked yet ------------------------------------------------------------------- Zafar Samdani THE leading teams which played the first four matches of the sixth World Cup failed to produce even a potential dark horse although they included the 1992 finalist (England) and two semi-finalists (South Africa and New Zealand), plus winners of the first two World Cup tournaments (West Indies). Except the opener between England and New Zealand at Ahmedabad on Feb 13, and to some extent, the West Indies-Zimbabwe tie, the matches were cruelly uneven, pitting fresh recruits from the countryside (UAE and Holland) against professionally-trained and experienced troops of South Africa and New Zealand. Even so, success for the elite forces was on points, regardless of victory margins. And the teams playing the opener proved a match for each other  mostly for limitations. England fielded atrociously and received the wages for fumbling. However, this can happen to the best of the teams on some days. Really disappointing was the two teams resourcelessness in batting and bowling, though Astles ton was undeniably refreshing and Graham Hick was convincing. Beyond that, the batting was lacklustre and uncertain while the bowling had sterility as its main expression. Alec Steward played anchor for what appeared to be a timeless Test match and Graham Thorpes uneasiness at being bogged down brought his downfall while Fairbrothers was a friendly, indeed brotherly, innings. Englands bowling had a certain sting in Dominic Corks wayward mediocrity. The best to be expected from others should not be more than accurate up-and-down stuff. New Zealands batsmen looked long distance runners, only Chris Cairns appeared capable of producing fireworks. High grade bowling available to some participants, is unlikely to allow them beyond two hundred which should be gettable on the subcontinents pitches. The bowlers  Morrison and Nash  were lively and Larsen exhibited accuracy and experience but the others, including Kennedy who played against Holland, looked to be material for domestic cricket despatches. They could not get Holland out in its baptism in international cricket. South Africas Gary Kirsten ran up a massive individual score against UAEs predominantly expatriates, discordant ensemble composed of part- time, non-professional instrumentalists. Still he settled down to fluent strokeplay only after Sri Lankan Samarasekara had finished his first spell and even then his was not an unblemished innings. When it was their turn to bowl, the South Africans failed to dislodge the last pair who added 80 runs against seven bowlers, including Donald and McMillan. Apparently, they needed de Velliers too, who was not played in the match for an outfit like UAE. That major teams failure to get irregulars out hardly reflected outstanding bowling skills and suggested that against genuine batting line-ups, the bowlers could be wading in troubled waters. The West Indies-Zimbabwe fixture was not a total mismatch  it ran itself out of reckoning early in the innings and ended with an undependable 151 as three of its batsmen, including one and two drop players stumbled between wickets. The West Indians bowled with unusual discipline and their usual liveliness but they too failed to see the whole team back to the pavilion. And their batting fell apart despite a 78-run opening stand between a somewhat already Richardson and not too sure Campbell. Though they won the match with six wickets and more than 20 overs to spare they left every one wondering that if they could not stand up to Paul Strang, what would be their fate against the superior leg spin of Shane Warne and Anil Kumble who would have a go at them in Group A. They have a suspect track record against spin bowling, particularly leg spin. All the four wickets they lost in overhauling the target of 151 fell to Strang and the survivor, the brilliant Brian Lara, came in to his own after he was dropped of the same bowler. Incidentally, Zimbabwes attack looks capable of winning a match or two. Admittedly, it is neither fair nor authentic to pick or dismiss teams on the basis of one or two outings. Players can strike better form later. Assessment of talent can nevertheless be made. On that count, no clear winners emerged in these matches. England and New Zealand lack penetrative bowling and authoritative top order batting. West Indies have a suspect batting line-up. South Africa has a balanced side but winning the World Cup would take more than their performance against UAE. 4

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