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DAWN WIRE SERVICE
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Week Ending : 28 November 1996 Issue : 02/48
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Govt to curtail golden jubilee expenditure
Modified petition accepted by SC
Army to help in polls if asked for
UK think-tank critical of caretakers policies
Benazir rejects polls under caretakers
Good relations between president, PM must: CJ
Dissidents decide to expel Benazir, other leaders from party
Imran rules out alliance with any party
No decision on US visa issuance
---------------------------------
Caretakers on price hike spree to reduce deficit
IMF may not release more than $53m
More of the same more intensively
IMF sledge-hammer to hit the manufacturing sector
Govt borrowed Rs 62bn from banking sector
Caretakers decide to merge TCP, RECP, CEC
Restoration of mobile phones runs into snags
Delay in relief package worries investors
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The competent bully Ardeshir Cowasjee
58(2)(b): a double-edged sword? Dr Farrukh Saleem
A ministers diary: the first 15 days Javed Jabbar
The mood of the sovereign awam Ayaz Amir
Responding to the challenge of change Benazir Bhutto
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23 Cricket success after two years in Sharjah
23 Jansher clinches World Open title, sets record of wins
28 Wasim Akram has to show his fitness
26 Shahbaz Jr opts out of Champions Trophy
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961124
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Govt to curtail golden jubilee expenditure
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Bureau Report
ISLAMABAD, Nov 23: The caretaker government has decided to observe
Pakistans golden jubilee celebrations in simple manner and asked the civil
and military organisations to return all funds received earlier for this
purpose.
Informed sources told Dawn that the federal government has issued
instructions to all the provinces, civilian and military organisation to
observe golden jubilee celebrations in a very simple manner so as to
curtail undue expenditure.
This is part of the caretaker governments plan to introduce austerity in
all the departments. The government has already decided to cut expenditures
and wasteful projects. Even the caretakers are said to have asked the
military authorities to minimise their expenditure. They were told that
expenditure other than the purchase of important military hardware be
curtailed.
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961125
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Modified petition accepted by SC
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Rafaqat Ali
ISLAMABAD, Nov 24: The Supreme Court of Pakistan on Sunday entertained the
modified petition of ousted prime minister Benazir Bhutto challenging the
dissolution of the National Assembly and the ouster of her government.
The registrar of the Supreme Court had returned the petition of Ms Bhutto
twice and entertained it only after the protest letter, which was annexed
by the counsel of Ms Bhutto with the modified petition, was withdrawn.
Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan had annexed a three-page letter with the modified
petition to place it on record Ms Bhuttos disagreement with the courts
refusal to entertain her petition.
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961125
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Army to help in polls if asked for
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Ihtashamul Haque
ISLAMABAD, Nov 24: The corps commanders on Sunday discussed the internal
and external security situation and decided to extend all possible support,
if requested, to help hold fair and free elections on Feb 3.
Informed sources told Dawn that the 54th corps commanders meeting held at
the General Headquarters (GHQ), Rawalpindi, presided over by Chief of the
Army staff General Jahangir Karamat, was primarily convened to discuss
matters pertaining to national security and operational preparedness.
The official told Dawn that although the interim government had not, so
far, sought armys support during elections, any such request would be
considered in the pure national interest.
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961125
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UK think-tank critical of caretakers policies
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Shaheen Sehbai
WASHINGTON, Nov 24: The London-based think-tank Oxford Analytica, which was
extremely critical of the Benazir Bhutto government, has now turned its
guns on the caretaker government saying its proposals for economic reform
do not inspire confidence and President Legharis approach to reform leaves
many questions unanswered.
In its latest analysis of the Pakistan situation after the dismissal of the
Benazir government, the think tank says the status of current reform
initiatives was problematic.
More radical reform measures than any presently being contemplated may be
necessary if Pakistan is to break out of its cycle of political and
economic crises, it suggests.
Discussing the significance of the anti-corruption reforms, it says
institutional reform was essential if structural adjustment was to be
pursued successfully. However, the governments initiatives are marked by
ambiguities which may frustrate its objectives.
Amongst the many charges which President Farooq Leghari laid against
former prime minister Benazir Bhutto as reasons for her dismissal from
office were systemic maladministration and failure to deal with
institutionalised corruption. Although such problems have long been endemic
in Pakistan (they previously provided the basis of the charges which led to
former prime minister Nawaz Sharifs dismissal in 1993), their scale had
recently increased significantly.
It recalled Transparency Internationals rating of Pakistan as the second-
most corrupt business environment in the world and said the IMF belatedly
discovered it was being given false information. Since Bhutto was
dismissed, it has been revealed that last years budget deficit was much
higher than published and in the first four months of fiscal 1996-97, her
government borrowed three times more than its agreed target for the entire
year.
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961126
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Benazir rejects polls under caretakers
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Mahmood Zaman
LAHORE, Nov 25: Former prime minister Benazir Bhutto here on Monday
levelled a number of charges against President Farooq Leghari and asked him
to prove his innocence in a special court as required under the recently
promulgated Ehtesab (accountability) Ordinance.
Ms Bhutto made allegations while talking to reporters at the Lahore Press
Clubs Meet the Press programme during which she also expressed no-
confidence in the caretaker government and demanded of the president to
step down paving the way for Senate Chairman Wasim Sajjad to take over and
establish a non-partisan and neutral government to hold elections.
Nobody will accept results of elections held by the caretakers comprising
elements who believe in a confederal system, secessionists, loan defaulters
and liars who have a definite vested interest in taking over the PPP and
raising the kings party, she said.
The former prime minister said her governments dismissal was part of a
conspiracy by the forces who wanted to bring about a fundamentalists soft
Islamic revolution. The murder of Murtaza Bhutto was a major step in the
plot as the forces wanted to eliminate the Bhutto family considering it a
stumbling block in their scheme of things.
She was of the view that the same forces would ultimately remove Mr
Leghari.
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961126
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Good relations between president, PM must: CJ
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Rafaqat Ali
ISLAMABAD, Nov 25: Chief Justice Sajjad Ali Shah observed on Monday that if
relations between the president and the prime were tense the smooth running
of the government was not possible.
Presiding over five-member bench hearing the presidential reference and two
other related constitutional petitions, Chief Justice said that affairs of
the country could not be run smoothly if the president and prime minister
were at loggerhead.
Chief Justice observed that if a husband and wife were not in good terms,
running of a house became difficult and how it was possible that when the
president and prime minister were not seeing eye to eye the affairs of the
country would run smoothly.
When Syed Iqbal Haider, counsel for Ms Benazir Bhutto, argued that personal
relations of the prime minister and the president should not affect the
smooth functioning of the countrys affairs, Chief Justice said it was not
possible.
In response to Chief Justices observation, Mr Haider said there were so
many couple in this world who have less cordial relations but their
matrimonial life was going on without any major problem. He said that
tolerance was the key for the success of democratic system.
Chief Justice observed that harmony between the president and the prime
minister was must for the smooth functioning of the government.
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961127
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Dissidents decide to expel Benazir, other leaders from party
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Mahmood Zaman
LAHORE, Nov 26: A strong group of PPP dissidents on Tuesday decided to
serve on chairperson Benazir Bhutto and other leaders notices for breaching
party discipline by compromising the organisations fundamental principles
and its ideological programme and allowing vested interests to hijack the
party.
A decision to take-over the party and expel Ms Bhutto and her associates
will be taken at a convention on December 1 to commemorate the PPPs 29th
anniversary. Dr Ghulam Husain, a former MNA during the late Zulfikar Ali
Bhuttos rule, was nominated as general secretary of the group which has
decided to introduce the concept of collective leadership by its central
executive committee whose members will also be elected at the convention.
The convention, it is claimed, will take important decisions like co-
operation with other parties and work out a strategy in case the PPP
leadership takes disciplinary action against the group.
One issue on which a consensus seemed to be emerging at the meeting was
that the process of accountability of corrupt politicians must be
expedited. An indication was also given that the group may forge an
election alliance, or merge with the PPP(SB). We are natural allies of the
SB group, some speakers at the meeting said. They plan to invite Ms Ghinwa
Bhutto to visit Punjab in the near future.
One speaker after another accused Benazir of betraying the PPPs programme
as spelled out by Mr Bhutto and allowing the party to be hijacked by
feudals, members of the Majlis-i-Shoora, political turn-coats and other
remnants of the Zia period. They said, Ms Benazir Bhutto had ignored
workers sacrifices and sufferings and their services in the restoration of
democracy. They were of the view that Asif Zardari and Ms Naheed Khan were
mainly responsible for leaving the party workers in the lurch.
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961127
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Imran rules out alliance with any party
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Staff Reporter
LAHORE, Nov 26: Ruling out the possibility of an alliance with any
political party, Tehrik-i-Insaaf convenor Imran Khan said on Tuesday his
party regarded both the PML and the PPP as its major rivals.
Talking to newsmen at his party office, he alleged that both the PML and
the PPP wanted to maintain the status quo. He claimed that his party was
revolutionary in its thinking and nature and it was determined to uproot
the system of exploitation.
He said he would put up about 700 candidates for the national and
provincial assembly seats and would ensure that no seat went uncontested.
He said 80 per cent of his party candidates would be university degree
holders and many of them would be foreign qualified. Our rivals will be
stunned when our team comes out in the field.
Mr Imran Khan said his team would comprise people committed to serve the
country. Many of them, he claimed, were coming from the PPP and the PML and
since they were joining hands with the Tehrik-i-Insasf after trying the two
major parties, there was no possibility of their parting ways with him.
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961127
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No decision on US visa issuance
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Staff Reporter
KARACHI, Nov 26: The US Consul General in Karachi Mr. Douglas B.Archard
said here on Tuesday he could not say when the US government would allow
the issuance of visa from Karachi.
Please be assured I am working on this problem. But do not ask me for a
guess when it is going to be over, he said referring to the ban on the
issuance of US visa from Karachi.
Speaking at a luncheon held in his honour by Pakistan Commodity Traders
Association he said he appreciated the importance of the matter and was
interested to see it resolved. But he made it clear he did not know when US
visa would be issued from Karachi.
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961123
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Caretakers on price hike spree to reduce deficit
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M. Ziauddin
THE BUDGETARY DEFICIT in 1993-94 could be slashed by more two per cent of
the GDP mainly because of the massive hikes effected by the caretaker Moin
Qureshi government in administered prices following the understanding
reached then with the IMF.
We are witnessing an almost similar spurt of hikes in frequency and
magnitude in administered prices in the wake of the recently concluded
talks between the IMF and Shahid Javed Burki, the caretaker prime
ministers adviser on economic affairs.
This is probably the only way the World Bank people know how to bring down
budgetary deficits in a hurry and make a name for themselves at the cost of
the economy of the less influential Third World countries.
Attempts to control budgetary deficit by price hikes only end in making the
possibility of achieving economic stability ever more remote.
During the caretaker Moin Qureshi regime, the round of price hikes had
enhanced the cost of production so high all around that even with heavier
taxation in the following two years, the previous government could not
achieve even a semblance of stability in the economy.
When the present caretaker government completes its price hike spree and
goes home after three months, the elected government which will be sworn in
on February 10, 1997, will probably find itself in a similar position as
the dismissed Ms Bhutto government did in October, 1993-94.
By the end of the fourth month of the current fiscal year, bank borrowing
for budgetary support had touched an all time record of Rs 70 billion
against the full year target of Rs 20 billion.
This massive bank borrowing in such a short time could be attributed to the
post budget upheavals made worse by rumours of impending dissolution of the
assemblies all these weeks which finally came true in the first week of
November. Besides, a burden of as much as Rs 30 billion of bank borrowing
had been transferred to the current years account from last years balance
sheet in order to keep the last years budgetary deficit as low as 5.8 per
cent of the GDP.
In the remaining five weeks of the second quarter and most of the third
quarter, the economy is likely to take a frontal beating by electioneering,
constitutional cases in the higher courts and the launching of a brand new
accountability process.
And the fourth quarter would be the first quarter of the first year of the
newly elected government trying to find its feet and grasp the enormity of
the situation.
However, if the remote possibility of revival of the assemblies through the
courts turns into reality in the meanwhile, it would be a different ball
game with its attendant uncertainties.
These are the challenges confronting the caretaker managers of the economy
led by Mr Burki, the miracle man loaned to us by the World Bank to which we
are already indebted hugely. It is in fact a journey into the unknown on
which the nation has embarked, especially in the sphere of economy.
Who does not know what is wrong with our economy. It is not growing at the
needed rate of 10 per cent because the savings rate is too negligible which
in turn is because only one million of our of 135 million countrymen pay
taxes. The situation has been made more difficult by the tapering off of
concessional assistance from multilateral and bilateral sources following
the end of the cold war.
On the other hand, the hopes of getting foreign private investment to fill
the gap have been shattered by the ever increasing mismanagement of the
economy and burgeoning corruption.
The fundamentals of the economy are also skewed because of heavy dependence
on agriculture, imports and customs with exports contributing only
negligibly to the GDP.
Over the past several years, a number of prescriptions have been proposed
for remedying the above mentioned ills of our economy by witch doctors and
people of their ilk inside the country and from abroad possessing the right
credentials of having managed institutions like the World Bank and the IMF.
Therefore, one expected the caretaker economic managers to launch their
prescription from day one of their short tenure in order to accomplish as
much as possible in the 90 days. Instead they have gone on a spree of price
hikes and in order perhaps to fudge reality, they have predictably
constituted 13 to 15 task forces on all kinds of subjects (with the
exception of a couple) under persons of dubious credentials.
It is all right to berate the caretakers for not taking the bull by the
horns from the word go, but it would be totally unfair to reject the
proposed panacea without first giving Mr Burki the chance to unfold his
agenda.
However, Mr Burki has not win any points by keeping his negotiations with
the IMF camouflaged under diplomese. The standby loan remains suspended
despite the optimism he had exuded in his Press conference at the
conclusion of the negotiations with the Fund team.
Some newspaper stories have alluded to the possibility of delay in
disbursement until the induction of the elected government. The fact that
the IMF officials did not join Mr Burki at the Press conference in which he
announced the possibility of an enhanced standby disbursement in December
made him look a shade less credible. He also did try at the same Press
conference to create the impression that the caretakers would be able to
sign a new ESAF agreement before the end of their mandated tenure.
On the face of it this sounds too optimistic because the Fund usually likes
to negotiate such long term reform arrangements with an elected government
having the peoples mandate to implement these reforms. At present, the
country has around $600 million in foreign exchange reserves. This is not
so bad. In August 1993 we had only $300 million in the kitty. Earlier, in
August 1981, the amount in the FER was no more than $100 million. Still we
survived. This time too we are likely to muddle through. Not because of any
miracle by the miraclemen of the caretakers but because countries and
states do not go bankrupt, especially when their economies are being
managed by World Bank managers on deputation.
So, the caretakers would only be sparing the nation if they resist the
temptation to present routine developments as great achievements.
Pakistanis have suffered enough from this compulsion of our successive
rulers to make exaggerated claims of their achievements even when the
weather turns good for the crops.
Of course, if the caretakers succeed, by means other than unreasonable
price hikes, in bringing down bank borrowing to a reasonable level by
December 31, 1996 from the present Rs 70 billion they would deserve the
very deep gratitude of the nation.
And this should not be such a big problem, if they could, in the meanwhile
as promised, curtail the ministries and divisions from 48 to number 31,
reduce the number of corporations and departments and plug the massive
wastes that have become a norm in government expenditures.
Simultaneously, they could implement a number of measures to document the
economy immediately like making it mandatory that all financial
transactions over Rs 10,000 should be done through cheques and also by
giving the nation a fail safe scheme to collect at least Rs 20 billion from
taxes from agricultural incomes. Meanwhile, they could speed up as promised
the privatisation process and sell a couple of commercial and investment
banks in as transparent a manner as is possible under the circumstances and
use the proceeds to retire a part of the costly local debt.
Also, the caretakers should make public, the real annual budgetary deficit
figures of the past 11 years since 1985. The other day no less a person
than the President, asserted that deficit figures had been fudged by
successive governments and the previous government was not alone in
committing this sin.
If this is so, then there is an additional burden of at least Rs 40 billion
(nearly 1.5 per cent of the GDP) on the budget which has to be taken into
account while fixing the budgetary deficit target figure in any future
negotiations with the IMF for ESAF.
The caretakers before their time is up, should help the nation identify the
real culprits who in order to show a lower budgetary deficit than it really
was in their time had committed the original sin of fudging the figure.
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961124
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IMF may not release more than $53m
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M. Ziauddin
ISLAMABAD, Nov 23: Pakistan is likely to get no more than a third of 160
million dollars, the sum of two pending tranches of 80 million dollars
each, from the standby arrangement, next month, if the IMF at its next
board meeting, scheduled to be held on December 10 , approves the new Rs 41
billion package of additional budgetary measures announced by the State
Bank governor on October 22.
The remaining 100 million dollars are likely to be kept on ice in the
pipeline until the advent of the next elected government.
Perhaps, anticipating the development, the caretaker government has decided
to send its adviser on economic affairs, Shahid Javed Burki, the World Bank
man on deputation in Pakistan, to Washington in the first week of December
to do last- minute lobbying for a more favourable consideration by the
Fund.
The IMF mission which had an extended stay in Pakistan during which it had
first negotiated and initialled an agreement with an elected government and
then reopened the negotiations with the representatives of the caretakers ,
is said to have listened to the assurances of a good conduct given by the
caretaker government as well as the president, with much scepticism.
The Funds reservations are reportedly not about the sincerity of the
president and the caretakers in their assurances, but about the fact that
there is no system or network in Pakistan which could ensure collection of
additional revenues of Rs 54 billion in the next seven months, more than
third of which would be consumed by electioneering and accountability
process.
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961123
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More of the same more intensively
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M.B. Naqvi
SHAHID Javed Burki, the Prime Ministers Adviser on all economic affairs,
has given both, his manifesto and how he will run the economy. Minor
details are less significant at this stage than the major dimensions of the
restructuring that impends.
Needles to say, that all the conditionalities that the Benazir government
had failed to implement in full would somehow be implemented. That means
not only the conditionalities committed to under the Standby Agreement of
December 1995 would be executed in full but a new set of stricter
conditionalities are about to be negotiated with IMF and doubtless with
the World Bank also under a different nomenclature for more resources so
that a new ESAF agreement will provide additional resources to the $160
million that would be in the kitty sometime next month.
Insofar as the financial managers of the government are concerned, it would
look like QED to them. The caretakers, especially Mr. Burki, would be rated
as having already delivered. For them the name of the game is to borrow
left, right, and centre.
The new Burki achievement may include the retirement of many short-term
loans from private banks that, according to the published reports, had
already amounted to $5 billion or more in recent months.
That will slightly ease some of the burden of repayments each quarter. That
may provide a breather if the governments pressing needs do not negate
what Burki might accomplish. The governments hunger for spending,
especially in foreign exchange, seems insatiable. But is this all?
The question of questions remains: impact of the reforms now sure to be
more intensively implemented. Let us consider them under three main heads.
The first is the privatisation and deregulation part. What it involves is
hopefully a more efficient and a lot quicker disposal of public sector
assets. Although a lot can be said about the required efficiency as well as
transparency in the privatisation programme, but that can wait.
There is no reason to suppose that the government, under Burkis
directions, would actually restrict itself to what has emerged as a
consensus among his peers, friends and the like- minded, namely devote all
the proceeds from the privatisation for retiring first the domestic debts
and later some of the external ones.
This benefit of doubt can not that the government will not use some of
the proceeds to support the budget automatically be given to Islamabad
with its spendthrift habits. The rest of the country will need to keep up
pressure on Burki, or rather the rest of the government, not to utilise
these funds for reducing budget deficits because it is sure to be tempted
to do that.
Reducing red tape
Insofar as deregulation involves cutting down on red tape and needless
bureaucratic controls is concerned, it can only do good, provided the
process is not confused with doing away with necessary regulatory duties of
the state to ensure competition and prevent monopoly, protection of the
consumer and adequate reporting on the economy.
There is lot of fuzziness regarding the implications of deregulation and
liberalisation. Needless bureaucratic controls and useful regulation need
to be sharply distinguished.
The second major head is the conditionalities concerning budget deficit and
control of money supplies. Although by right, monetary policy should be
included under this head, one specific part of the overall monetary policy
had better be kept separate: the per value policy of the rupee.
Money supply and effects of budget deficits are a matter of great concern
because the government is the biggest economic actor. Its actions produce
tremendous repercussions on the economy, especially on prices.
It has become customary to regard inflation as resulting mainly from larger
money supplies and high budget deficits. No one can deny that these are
very important causes of inflation rate.
However the point that has been made in this space is that it would be far
too simplistic to believe that a reduction of two or three percentage
points in budget deficit, if achievable would automatically reduce both
money supplies and inflation rate.
What can certainly be said is that reduced deficits would have a beneficial
impact on the inflation rate. But then inflation in this country is a far
too vicious a beast. Its taming and trimming will take a lot of drastic as
well as sustained action than a quick reduction in budget deficit can
achieve. The point is: budget deficit in each economy has its own
characteristics. In Pakistans case it certainly has its peculiarities
specific to Pakistan.
Moreover planning a drastic reduction of budget deficit in a matter of
three months or even a years operation is not exactly achieving it.
Otherwise Mr V.A. Jafarey would not have had to go so unceremoniously.
The declarations of Mr. Burki are to be welcomed. But they are not the same
as achievements. For the latter we shall have to wait and see whether the
succeeding government actually makes the required cuts, recoveries and
realisation of taxes.
No doubt the winding up or amalgamation of 17 divisions in the Central
Secretariat sounds impressive. But if their entire staff is adjusted in the
remaining divisions and ministries, the abolishing will only be in name and
these divisions with their budgets will merely become part of other
divisions or miniseries - the likeliest manoeuvre by the bureaucracy - the
net result would be zero. Why? because the amalgamated divisions will bring
with them their stated functions, staff and budget and will carry on
merrily as before.
The need is not renaming or reorganising the divisions and ministries. The
need is a drastic reduction in the size of the government, meaning thereby
fewer clerks and even fewer officers. Indications are that Mr Burki and the
present caretaker regime are not the likely agents of such a drastic
change. Bureaucratic manoeuvres are not what the IMF conditionalities
imply. This would not seem to be honest implementation of what is required
by donors - unless they were interested only in removing Benazir Bhutto and
her crew.
The purpose of the reduction in government is to reduce expenditures so
that the overall deficit can come down, which is desired so as to bring
down the inflation rate.
The litmus test for IMF conditionalities is the actual reduction in the
inflation rate. The immediate or short-term impact of the measures that
have been suggested by the IMF and Mr. Burki has lost no time in giving
yet another instalment by increasing POL prices for the umpteenth time in
recent months is actually to increase price levels in the economy.
One-way price movement
Most have come to think that the prices of petroleum products act as a
multiplier of inflation - supposedly in the short run. How short such runs
have turned out to be are no longer an unknown; prices know no coming down.
So far all these short runs have accumulated into a fairly long run if we
go by the preceding 10 year record.
After all their experiences, Pakistani consumers cannot take the word of
IMF, Mr Burki or the government at face value. For the people, the
touchstone of all this restructuring is at least the stabilisation of
prices at no matter what level; no one expects any actual reduction.
Needless to say that continued high rates of inflation would eventually
destroy the economy and the situation is grim enough.
The third major segment of the reforms being implemented concerns other
aspects of liberalisation and globalisation of the economy. There are
several components of this part.
The primary one is doing away with restrictions on imports, together with
steady reductions and eventual destruction of all duties and levies on
imports. Also included in it is that no special incentives be given for
exports or even duties on them. The other component of this policy is to
keep the currencys par values realistic and the specific rate should be
determined by laws of supply and demand.
The idea is to attain the Wallahala of perfect competition throughout the
globe. That would somehow maximise the creation of wealth throughout the
world and all will be more prosperous. So says laissez faire economics.
There is yet another component involved. This is to rely on foreign
investments, direct or otherwise, if domestic savings and investments lag
behind. For the purpose, Pakistan government has given exorbitant
incentives like a 22 per cent net return on capital with total freedom to
repatriate capital and profits.
The IMF does not seem to have objected to such extravagant terms. On the
ground these terms will eventually lead to very high (uneconomic) prices of
eventual products. These terms will introduce serious distortions in price
structures and may vitiate the whole growth processes.
Recent governments could not implement this whole part, though it has
selectively implemented one segment, viz the realistic bit about the
currencys external value.
The Rupees value continues to be chipped and cut at a steady rate, without
the government fully implementing the other implications, especially
reducing import duties down to the level agreed the IMF.
Now the task seems to be that by June 1997, the maximum import duties on
any product would be 35 per cent. Given Pakistans distribution of national
income, this would send the import bill sky high. Local industry will grind
to a halt. All the plans and notions about Pakistan having overcome its BoP
deficits would go up in smoke.
Despite the best will, the Benazir government failed to implement this part
- partly because local industrialists frustrated governments wishes. Can
things change so radically in these three caretaker months as to enable
this or the next government to allow the near destruction of local industry
and the drowning of local market in the flood of foreign goods.
Granted that theory says inefficient producers should go to the wall and
more efficient should survive (and prosper). But does that happen in real
life, especially in the international sphere?
The theory requires that the more inefficient industries in the NICs (newly
industrialised countries) should collapse while efficient ones (in OECD
countries) should prosper further. Realistic expectation is that most new
industrial ventures or even services in NICs are unlikely to survive
competition from MNCs; most of them are sure to collapse.
This prospect is termed recolonisation of the Third World by many. This
assessment is not far fetched. Some of the Pakistani industries are notably
inefficient and under the pressures of under-development, high inflation
and low savings, Pakistan economy has been distorted no end. Globalisation
now, in such conditions, will be at this countrys expense.
The simple, standardised IMF advice, without heavy qualifications in their
sequencing, timing and picking and choosing, cannot be adopted. What the
caretakers seem to be doing looks extremely hazardous because they are
borrowing with no thought for the morrow.
Their programme is to please the donor agencies by promising whatever they
lay down and by being their most obedient and loyal servants. We know that
distortions in Pakistan economy need to be removed. But the IMF
conditionalities take absolutely no notice of them except to pay lip
service to inflation or BoP difficulties. We need something better and
different. Who can give that to us except ourselves?
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961123
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IMF sledge-hammer to hit the manufacturing sector
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Sultan Ahmed
THE large-scale manufacturing sector, which has been facing a grave crisis
for the last two years and growing only nominally, may face a worse threat
when the import tariff is slashed to 35 per cent from 65 per cent soon
under the IMFs pressure.
The caretaker government of Moeen Qureshi had in September, 1993, decided
to reduce the import tariff on finished goods from 75 per cent to 50 per
cent in three year, that is by the middle of 1995. And Mr Hafiz Pasha, as
Commerce Minister, had presented the comprehensive package of the
categories of imports and extent of duty reduction and Mr Pasha as the new
Deputy-chairman of Planning Commission has said the tariff might be brought
to 35 per cent this year under pressure from the IMF.
However, a final decision in this regard would be taken after the receipt
of the reports of two task forces one on tariff reforms headed by Dr
Muhammad Zubair, and the other on Tariff reforms headed by Dr. Hafiz Pasha.
Under fiscal pressure the import tariff which was brought down to 55 per
cent last year was raised to 65 per cent following the regulatory duty of
10 per cent levied by the mini-budget of last year. The tariff was expected
to be brought down to 55 per cent through the annual budget of June 13
last. Instead that was maintained at 65 per cent, and the regulatory duty
of 10 per cent was not withdrawn. The IMF had agreed to that in the hope
that might help reduce the budget deficit to 4 per cent as committed by
Pakistan for the current year.
Now, however, under a comprehensive package for structural reforms, the
average import tariff might be brought down to 35 per cent as that is what
the IMF wants. And if the import tariff drops so sharply and suddenly there
will be a large inflow of foreign manufactures, including textiles to
compete with Pakistani manufactures and hurt our industry.
In principle reducing the import tariff is a good thing as the high import
duties and other levies are resulting in Customs revenue losses of Rs 50
billion to Rs. 100 billion. If the tariff is reduced more, the goods will
come through regular trade channels rather than through smugglers
operations and the revenues of the government will increase substantially.
Overdoing the act
However, the tariff should not be reduced to such an extent and suddenly
that Pakistans manufacturing sector will be hit too hard and more
factories will close down in a country which has already over 3,000 sick
industrial units and where the growth of the large scale manufacturing
sector in 1994-95 was only half a per cent while it was slightly better
last year, and certainly below the growth of 3.1 per cent claimed by the
government.
Normally, before reducing import duties sharply the government should
increase the competitiveness of Pakistans manufactures through a proper
mix of measures. Instead, the government of Benazir Bhutto increased the
cost of production by enhancing the various duties, increasing the cost of
inputs, including power and gas, and raising the interests rates which is
now as high as 25 to 28 per cent for commercial loans. Wages have gone up
while productivity has not, and prices of all agricultural inputs including
cotton and sugar cane and oil seeds, have risen. In fact all these prices
keep on rising constantly with each one acting on the other. and that makes
the wrong environment for lowering the import tariff.
Already many of the industries are hit hard by cheaper imports following
the lowering of the tariff. Cigarette companies in Pakistan, which pay
heavy excise duties protest that import of high quality cigarettes of
comparative quality has increased.
Manufactures of synthetic yarn, including ICI, have been protesting they
are suffering losses as a result of sharp reduction in import duties on
synthetic yarn which are coming in from South Korea and other countries.
The engineering goods industry is also hit hard by cheaper imports, even
through massive smuggling, while the taxes on the products of this industry
continues to be heavy and the industry has not been able to come up to the
required level.
Smuggling
Importers, on the other hand, have been compelling that because of the 107
per cent duty, on imported tea a great deal of tea is being smuggled into
the country via Afghanistan and the government is losing heavily through
such smuggling. The solution lies in reducing the import tariff and beating
smugglers.
Western countries are interested in getting the import tariff reduced in
Pakistan so that they could export more of their manufactures, including
textiles, to Pakistan. The powerful US. trade representative Mickey Canter
had spoken last year of US textiles entering Pakistan at 35 per cent tariff
this year, but that did not come to pass as the government raised the total
tariff to 65 per cent following last years 10 per cent regulatory duty on
imports.
Now the IMF pressure is both to reduce the budget deficit which last year
rose to 6.3 per cent of the GDP, instead of the budgeted 5 per cent as well
as lower the import tariff sharply so as to reduce the smuggling and
increase the ultimate revenues. But the issue is far more than a fiscal one
as the urgent need of the time is to enable the large scales industry
regain its vitality and work to full capacity. For that the government has
to come up with concessions on the fiscal and monetary fronts and reduce
the cost of the inputs and lower the giddy interest rates. The right thing
to do was to set up a task force for the purpose, but that has not been
done, while 11 task forces have been set up for diverse purposes.
If the government now slashes the import tariff under time- pressure before
reducing the cost of production substantially and increasing the
competitive edge of Pakistans manufactures, Pakistans manufacturing
sector will lose out to imports, while its export sector will be hit too
hard. Pakistan cannot afford such a deadly double setback now.
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961126
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Govt borrowed Rs 62bn from banking sector
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Pervaiz Ishfaq Rana
KARACHI, Nov 25: The government has borrowed over Rs 62 billion from the
banking sector in the last four monthsJuly to October, 1996. It represents
over 50 per cent borrowing of the entire 1996-97 ceiling of Rs 42 billion
and 25 per cent over the actual borrowing of Rs 49.46 billion recorded
during the same period of 1995.
Latest figures show that credit requirements of the private sector have
also been met adequately as a sum of Rs 22.32 billion were provided as
against total ceiling of Rs 60 billion fixed for whole 1996-97. It is much
more than Rs 9.18 billion provided to the private sector during the same
period of 1995.
Total domestic credit of Rs 84.52 billion in the last four months as
against projection of Rs 102 billion for whole 1996-97 has been brought
down to Rs 72.79 billion because of contraction of Rs 11.72 billion.
Foreign exchange reserves reported an alarming contraction of Rs 55.83
billion in the last four months despite the fact that gap in international
trade during July to October, 1996, has narrowed down by over $300 million
as over trade deficit of the same period in 1995.
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961128
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Caretakers decide to merge TCP, RECP, CEC
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Bureau Report
ISLAMABAD, Nov 27: The caretaker government has decided to reorganise the
whole structure of the ministry of commerce specially by merging the TCP,
RECP and the CEC into one organisation and strengthening the role of the
EPB within the next few days.
We have decided to have one organisation in place of the Trading
Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), Cotton Export Corporation (CEC) and the Rice
Export Corporation (RECP) to cut their growing expenditures, said the
Minister for Commerce, Dr Zubair Ahmad.
He told the reporters here on Wednesday that the Foreign Trade Institute
and the National Tariff Commission would also be reorganised so as to
improve their performance.
But we have no plans to remove people from their services by cutting the
expenditures through the merger of various corporations, he said adding
that the surplus staff would be accommodated in different other places.
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961128
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Restoration of mobile phones runs into snags
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Sabihuddin Ghausi
KARACHI, Nov 27: Restoration of mobile telephone service in Karachi has
apparently run into snags because of governments insistence on the three
operators to withdraw their losses claim.
The three operators of mobile telephones service contend to have suffered
losses of more than Rs 1 billion on account of abrupt suspension of mobile
telephone service in Karachi since July 1, 1995. The dismissed PPP
government suspended the mobile telephone service about 16 months ago as a
counter measure to suppress, what it perceived then a near insurgency
situation in the Karachi city.
Frustrated and disappointed on the first contact with the caretaker
Communications Minister, Mr Abdul Ghaffar Jatoi last Sunday at Islamabad
the executives of the three mobile phone services are holding consultations
to work out a new strategy to put forward effectively their points of view,
in Islamabad.
Their contention is that Karachi is the biggest market for the mobile
telephone operators who introduced the service in late 1990. Karachi
provided more than 60 per cent of customers out of 65,000 clients to mobile
telephone industry in the last six years of operation, and obviously was
the main centre of revenue generation, a senior executive of one of the
three companies explained. Evidently suspension of service for 16 months
in main business centre has caused the operators substantial losses and
there is legitimate reason to ask for compensations, the executive argued.
However, the three operators maintain that the restoration of mobile
telephone service in Karachi, and losses claims should be treated as
entirely two separate issues and should not be interlinked.
Restoration of mobile telephone service is not only our requirement but a
pressing demand of the trade and industry of the biggest business centre of
Pakistan, the executive argued who referred to the demands made by the
representative trade bodies like the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and
Industry and other trade associations during last 16 months.
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961128
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Delay in relief package worries investors
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Staff Reporter
KARACHI, Nov 27: Stocks turned in an easy performance on Wednesday as
investors were a bit worried over delay in announcement of the corporate
relief package as weaker among them took profits at the available margin.
The market, however, was not without some special features despite easy
undertones as most of the pivotals were massively traded and mostly on the
higher side, indicating that the covering operation has already begun.
Volume figure again soared to 68 million shares as all the actives shares
were massively traded both ways.
Both PTC Vouchers and Hub-Power again proved market leaders but in
opposing directions, reflecting the high incidence of rolling of positions
from one to the other mostly by foreign investors, analysts said.
That was perhaps why the same set of operators, who indulged in overnight
tactical selling and pulling the market down just in one go, were active
buyers at the lows, pushing the market again on the rails.
After opening about 10 points down, the KSE 100-share index finally showed
a remarkable recovery as investors were back to cover positions at the
overnight bottom levels.
The KSE 100-share index did fell fractionally by 1.45 points at 1,487.74 as
compared to 1,489.19 a day earlier, reflecting the relative strength of
most of the base shares.
Analysts said political uncertainties notwithstanding, investors are in the
rings in a big way and might stay if the pace of corrective steps to put
the economy back on the rails is sustained.
The fact that the rally powered by the relief package early in the week
for spinner is fading worries of investors as it could pave the way for
selling in other sectors too, they added. The other disturbing factor is
that the buying euphoria witnessed in the investment shares after the
textile package is also losing its steam as those who bought at the earlier
lows are again selling at the available margin.
Performance of most of the blue chips and current favourites are also not
very encouraging, having a negative impact on the trading pattern.
Synthetic and insurance shares, however, did not follow the markets
general line of action on various reasons. While the former continued to
attract good support in response to duty cuts on polyester yarn, the latter
came in for strong buying on expectation that they will be treated at par
with the others in respect of capital gain tax exemption.
Century Insurance, Premier Insurance and Adamjee Insurance and some others
were actively traded, finishing with good gains.
Other notable gainers were led by PILCORP, Javed Omer, Apex Fabrics, Kohat
Cement, Quality Steel, Balochistan Wheels, apparently after the appointment
of new managing director, Mitchell Fruits and Tri-Pak Films, rising by Rs
1.75 to Rs 2.90. Big losers were led by Zeal Pak Cement, Fauji Fertiliser,
Packages, Searle Pakistan and Parke-Davis, falling by Rs 1.75 to Rs 5.
Others to follow them were led by Pak DataCom, EFU Insurance, Dreamworld,
and Shell Pakistan falling by one rupee to Rs 1.25.
The most active list was topped by Hub-Power, easy five paisa on 12.735
million shares, followed by PTC Vouchers, up 25 paisa on 10.886m, Dewan
Salman, higher 95 paisa on 8.945m, FFC-Jordan Fertiliser, lower 25 paisa on
2.648m, and ICI Pakistan (r), up 20 paisa on 1.272 million shares.
They were followed by Dhan Fibre, up 10 paisa on 1.495 million, Ibrahim
Fibre, firm 35 paisa on 0.491m, Fauji Fertiliser, off Rs 2.75 on 0.466m,
ICI Pakistan, up 20 paisa on 0.740m, and Schon Bank, up 75 paisa on 0.152
million shares.
Trading volume soared to 67.901 million shares from the previous 49.247m
shares thanks to active bouts of selling and buying in the current
favourites.
There were 348 actives out of which 153 shares fell, 123 rose with 72
holding on to the last levels.
DIVIDEND: On the corporate front, the Board of Directors of Siemens
Pakistan has announced a maintained cash dividend of 30 per cent, while
Syed Match came out with a 10 per cent cash. Sui Southern Gas Company
announced bonus shares at the rate of 15 per cent.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
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961122
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The competent bully
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Ardeshir Cowasjee
KARACHI, October 6, 1996
Fax message for: Mr Ahmad Sadiq, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister
of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan now in tatters.
Dear Mr Sadiq
You were a good man when I first met you in 1972, when you were being
harassed by Bhutto and being falsely accused by him of having allowed
General Habibullah to flee the country.
The public perception now is that you are a big bully and are either
highly corrupt yourself or highly competent in aiding and abetting
corruption at the highest levels. Your workplace is, of course,
contaminating and conducive to corruption and other such sins.
Herewith a copy of an article by Kaleem Omar from The News.
Whereas you people up there are dealing in billions of dollars, plebs such
as Kaleem and I are worried about such minor sums as millions of rupees.
Kaleem checks his facts before writing. However, I would be glad if you
could let me have some documentation to prove both he and the public
perception wrong.
Hoping you have shed some weight, and with good wishes.
Knowing how haughty this recycled secretary had become, I expected no
answer and got none. But he did ask a friend to convey to me that I was
apparently unaware as to how much his presence as chef of the Prime
Ministers Secretariat had saved the nation.
This is very much the same as what I heard the other day from Jehangir
Ansari of Pakistan State Oil (now on the ECL). He claimed that we should
not scoff at him, as PSO had made a profit of some Rs 20 billion in the
last year. My answer was that it was possible that had he and some others
spent their time asleep at home, and if what had been robbed had not been
robbed, the profit would perhaps have been Rs 30 billion.
Back to the shenanigans of Falstaff Sadiq. On April 17 this year, the fax
machines spat out a message in the offices of the Federal Finance
Secretary, Chairman Pakistan Banking Council, Vice-Chairman Export
Promotion Bureau, Managing Director PIA, Chairman Pakistan
Telecommunications Corporation, Chairman State Life Insurance Corporation,
Chairman National Insurance Corporation, Chairman Pakistan Insurance
Corporation, President National Bank, President Habib Bank, President
Allied Bank, President Muslim Commercial, Chairman National Development
Finance Corporation, Managing Director National Investment Trust, Managing
Director Investment Corporation, Managing Director PNSC. It was from the
office of the man that headed that most dreaded, and perhaps most corrupt,
secretariat in Islamabad:
National Publicity Goals In order to discuss some important national
publicity effort, a meeting will be held at 11 a.m. on April 21, 1996 in
the Prime Ministers Secretariat under chairmanship of Principal Secretary
to the Prime Minister. Kindly make it convenient to attend the meeting
personally. Sd./ Abdul Shafiq, Deputy Secretary, Law.
The obedient head honchos stopped doing what they were doing, cancelled
their engagements, and rushed to Islamabad. Those gallivanting abroad
were represented by their No. 2s. In Sadiqs office that day, there were no
representatives of either the Ministry of Information, the Directorate of
External Publicity, PTV, Radio Pakistan or any division or ministry dealing
with national publicity.
Falstaff Sadiq looked at the assembled group, and asked the deputy Chairman
of NDFC where his Chairman was. The deputy made some excuse, to which Sadiq
retorted that apparently the Chairman was getting too big for his boots. We
can easily replace him. And you can tell him that from me.
No working papers were distributed, no minutes recorded, and those
attending were strictly instructed to keep the days discussions top secret
and advised, in both the national and their personal interest, to implement
post-haste the decisions taken at the meeting.
The 15 heads were informed that each would have to contribute the rupee
equivalent of $100,000 towards the national effort. No details were
discussed and they were told that instructions would follow.
The sycophants amongst them jumped with joy. Brilliant, they told Sadiq.
Their organisations would contribute more if required. Asadullah Khwaja of
ICP said that the stock market was down, his organisation had nothing to
advertise, and it could not bear this unnecessary expense. He was informed
that none of them were there to argue, but to comply with a decision
already taken. Asadullah asked for written orders. Sadiq had no problem
with that.
ICP paid the $100,000. Receiving no responses at all to their queries as to
details on how the money had been spent, they asked for their money back.
It has so far not been sent.
The story I now relate concerns a bureaucrat with the courage of his
convictions, who values the peoples money, stands up and fights, and is
considered to be awkward. This last government constantly complained that
he did not co-operate. He is Ferozuddin Ahmed, Chairman of PIC.
A few days after Sadiqs meeting, he received a letter from the Banking
Council, our Panjrapore (where barren cows in India are sent to be cared
for until they die), enclosing a letter from the finance ministry
authorising co-ordinated action and the collection of a total of $1,145,000
(Rs 5.8 crores) from the targeted institutions. PIC was told to send the
money to PBC where the funds will be pooled for subsequent disposal, as
per instructions of the competent authority. The full amount was to be
sent by June 10, for onward transmission to London-based FMS International
Ltd, one of the cover companies used by Asif-crony Javed Pasha.
Ferozuddin played bat and ball, lobbing the ball into his external
auditors court, into his Board of Directors court, back and forth. He was
not co-operating and would suffer the consequences, roared Commerce
Minister Ahmed Mukhtar and the angry super-secretary Salman Faruqui. It was
this same genius, Mukhtar, who had proclaimed to the members of the Karachi
Chamber of Commerce: How can we be bankrupt? We can print as many notes as
we like every day.
Ferozuddin was also out of favour for delving into the payment of premiums,
totalling some $12 million, pertaining to the re-insurance abroad of PIAs
fleet.
On the evening of September 17, PIC Secretary Nadir Ali Mukhiani received
two faxes from the commerce ministry, the first instructing him to ensure
that Ferozuddin immediately relinquish charge of the Corporation and hand
it over to Asif-crony Humayun Zia (who was in no way competent to take
over). The second read: The competent authority has directed that the
charge may be handed over/taken over today positively. A compliance report
may be furnished today. Indecent haste? Who was obliging whom?
The same evening, on-the-ball Zia wrote to the secretary of PIC: I hereby
report to PIC to resume my office and to start looking after the work of
the office of the Chairman PIC w.e.f. 17.9.96.
Markhiani rushed to Ferozuddins house that evening with copies of the
two faxes, to ask what he should do as both Minister Mukhtar and Secretary
Faruqui were waiting in their offices for the compliance report, so that
they could report back to Asif. On September 19, Ferozuddin wrote to Ahmad
Sadiq: I am now 58 years of age, and only two years are left before I
superannuate from government service. The one thing I cherish most is my
self-respect and the one being from whom I ask favours is the one who has
created both you and me.
Ferozuddin was an OSD until November 9, when the caretakers reinstated him
as Chairman PIC and asked him to additionally take acting charge of that
cess-pit, the Pakistan Steel Mill. Ferozuddin had done his duty, as the
rest of the sorry bunch should have done. But, under the past regime, doing
what was right and proper was a crime.
The accountability commissioners could question Sadiq and those who have
co-operated as to whence they derived the right to rob, to impoverished
masses, all in the interest of enriching the few. These men were trustees
of the nations wealth. Should they not be punished for betraying their
trust? Misappropriation does not start with the figure of a billion. In
moral terms, and in terms of his sworn duty, there is no difference between
a public servant robbing a billion or a thousand.
Our gangsters, fixers, and collectors would do well to remember that the
Feds could find no evidence to convict Al Capone, the famed US gangster of
the 1920s who had gunned down hundreds, who had robbed the people, and
whose wealth in 1927 was estimated at being close to $100 million. But they
persevered and in 1931, they got him for Federal income tax evasion. He was
tried, found guilty and sentenced to eleven years in prison plus the
payment of $80,000 in fines and court costs. In November 1939, stricken by
syphilitic deterioration, he was released and hospitalised. Robbed of his
mob and connections, Capone retired to his estate in Florida where he died
in 1947, a mad, powerless recluse.
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961124
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58(2)(b): a double-edged sword?
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Dr Farrukh Saleem
Ever since the unexpected departure of Gen. Zia in 1988, the enlightened
media of ours has been giving Zia what he rightfully deserved. Eleven years
of virtual dictatorship was followed by an almost daily dosage of severe
criticism and routine harsh commentary that all lasted for a good five
years. Some of it, as a matter of fact, still continues. To be certain, Zia
was no friend of any politician or of democracy. Although the general has
been gone for a long time, his gift of 8th Amendment to the politicians of
this country is what no one has been able to get rid of. After all, there
have since been three elected governments at least one of which had a clear
two-third majority.
Both Presidents who followed Zia are also on record for exercising their
constitutional powers of dissolving the National Assembly and dismissing
the Prime Minister. Each time a government is dismissed, the presidential
order of dissolution is challenged in the superior courts. Junejos
dismissal was challenged in the Lahore High Court (LHC) which held Zias
order of dismissal as unconstitutional but did not restore the three-
year-old government based on the rationale that the whole nation is geared
up for elections... .
When Benazirs first government was dismissed, GIKs use of Article 58 (2)
(b) was found to be legal and valid by the LHC. The Court held that the
pre-conditions prescribed by the Constitution were fulfilled and that, a
situation [had] arisen in which the government of the Federation could not
be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the constitution and an
appeal to the electorate was necessary. Benazir had lasted for a mere
twenty months.
Nawaz Sharif who became PM in November 1990, managed to last for twenty-
nine months. The Supreme Court decision that followed Sharifs dismissal,
not only held GIKs order as being illegal but also reinstated him as PM.
The Supreme Court held: The President unfortunately assumed to himself the
position of a Judge on the performance of the government and thought that
he had the power to punish the Cabinet for acts of omission and commission
as ascertained by him, adding that, Article 58 (2)(b) contemplated one
and only one situation for dissolution of the National Assembly, and that
is where, in the opinion of the President, the government of the Federation
cannot be carried on in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution
and an appeal to the electorate is necessary. The present Chief Justice,
Sajjad Ali Shah, is on record for dissenting from the majority opinion.
*From precedent set over the past decade the three inferences that clearly
stand out are: (i) The presidential jurisdiction to dissolve the Assembly
must be based on an objective deduction; (ii) The President cannot consider
himself to be a Judge on the performance of the government; and (iii) The
one and only one situation whereby the President can exercise Article 58
(2) (b) is when the government of the Federation cannot be carried on in
accordance with the Constitution.
President Legharis proclamation of dissolution is not much different from
the past three that are already on record. In light of recent superior
court rulings, the President can clearly not become a Judge of how the
Benazir government was performing or, for that matter, has no power to
punish the Cabinet for its acts of omission and commission. The only
other thing left is whether the President genuinely felt that the
government could not carry on as per the Constitution and, as a
consequence, a fresh mandate had become necessary.
The Supreme Court would really have to enter the presidential frame of mind
and draw its own conclusion as to whether the Presidents decision is based
on an objective analysis and also whether the President genuinely believed
that the government of the Federation could not be run according to the
Constitution. From a historical perspective, the courts felt that Zias
decision to dismiss Junejo was not an unbiased one. GIKs decision to
dissolve BB was found to be constitutionally valid while the same
Presidents dismissal of Nawaz Sharif was found to be lacking authenticity
of presidential intention.
The deposed PM is now making an attempt to bring in an element of ethnicity
in superior courts rulings. The implication is absolutely baseless. Judges
of the superior courts can safely be assumed to be above such narrow,
synthetic affiliations. The confrontation between the previous PM and the
Chief Justice is a living proof of that. The fight was on principles. It is
also being asserted that the presidential action has hurt democracy. That,
at best, is a ridiculous assertion. No one has hurt democracy more than our
champions of democracy themselves Additionally, the Constitution itself
provides for such emergency actions which in return must be taken as a
warning to corrupt democrats. Has the President then hurt the parliamentary
tradition, or are we really moving away from the Westminster-style of
democracy? The answer to both of these issues remains in the negative. The
President has actually opted for a route that may eventually usher in a
superior form of democracy. Some even go as far as claiming that we may
have actually managed to avoid martial law. The maturity of our political
assemblage, on the other hand, has not really reached a stage whereby even
an iron-lady can be removed from party leadership by the party itself, and
till that happens Article 58 (2) (b) is proving to be safety valve. Moving
over to the post-dissolution scenario, the team of caretakers has not been
receiving favourable reviews. The choice of economic managers seems like a
good one or may be we did not have much choice in that regards but the
choice of caretakers from the political field (with the sole exception of
the Prime Minister) has left much to be desired. The hierarchy in Punjab or
in Sindh, for example, does not command much respect in the eyes of the
electorate.
Admittedly, Zias intention of incorporating the once-dreaded 8th Amendment
may have been based on pure, unadulterated self interest. What we are now
beginning to realise is that Article 58 (2) (b) may in effect be a double-
edged sword, playing a critical role as a safeguard mechanism against the
misuse of democratic power by corrupt, rent-seeking government and
enforcing checks and balances in a system [otherwise] devoid of any
equitable law enforcement.
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A ministers diary: the first 15 days
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Javed Jabbar
Reading aloud the oath of office is like getting dressed in full public
view. Each sentence is a garment that conceals the nakedness of human
nature. The pledge is a full formal dress that seeks to cast one as an
angel. The oath is a see-through costume, transparent as well as
tantalising.
The first time I read a similar though not identical oath was on 21st March
1985, after being elected to the Senate. The second time was on 4th
December, 1988, when I joined the first cabinet of Benazir Bhutto as a
Minister of State. Now the third time around, joining a team led by
President Farooq Leghari and Prime Minister Malik Meraj Khalid, the text of
the oath is newly awesome in its implications. Can any mortal being always
act upon every word of it?
TV camera lights magnify the fine print. Still camera flash bulbs punctuate
the paragraphs. The silence around us is almost furtive, perhaps following
every syllable that we speak, possibly wondering how large the gap will be
between word and deed. Yet as the signature is affixed to the oath, the
profound simplicity of the promises made warms the heart and fills the mind
with confidence.
After three years of careless government, a three-month caretaker cabinet
is like a bridge between two river banks. We are supposed to make sure some
rotters do not walk on to the bridge or even swim across. They are
supposed to be held to account. But we live in times when a mans pockets
can be empty while a secret bank account far away is bursting at the seams.
Technology facilitates criminality. Will respect for the Constitution and
the law mean licence for scoundrels? Someone in the future should work on a
civilian version of martial law: one of whose facets would be swift, sure
punishment while at the same time ensuring total justice. Isnt that a
conundrum?
As for the other river bank, is it a mirage that we see upon the horizon or
the outlines of a brave new world?
Everything just speeds up soon after taking charge. Telephone calls
multiply at a rate faster than the countrys population. Visitors increase.
With prior appointments. Without advance warning. Then there is a daily
fixed hour for the public at large when any citizen can walk into the
office 3.00 pm to 4.00 pm. With requests ranging from authorisation for a
gas connection to be given out of turn on a priority basis to emotional
requests for transfers so that the applicant may be better able to look
after the legendary ailing mother, Allah bless her.
Journalists who ask sharp questions. Ambassadors and high commissioners
looking for tell-tale signs. Probing questions that meet careful answers
and elicit re-assuring statements. Officials from global oil and gas
corporations from whose smooth tongues flow easy references to billions of
cubic feet of gas and to hundreds of millions of dollars looking for secure
investment beyond 90 days.
The stream of incoming paper becomes a torrent and a blizzard at the same
time. Cabinet papers marked alluringly: secret. Files of different sizes:
slim and sleek, some with middle girth, others big and bulging. Marked
Immediate, Confidential and in case your attention is wandering: Most
Immediate. Applications for sanctions by the Minister for lucrative
volumes of LPG, tanker loads of condensate, solvent oil and bitumen.
Letters of felicitations from old friends. New acquaintances. And perfect
strangers. Telegrams. Books. Baskets of apples. Bouquets. Background
material on each sector and sub-sector of a Ministry whose scope of policy
and regulatory authority is vast and varied. Oil. Gas. Coal. Minerals. By-
products. All contributing their malodorous share to the fragrant fumes of
development. The basic, enormous sources of power that drive tractors and
trains, cars and motor-bikes, that light up a village home and put the glow
in chandeliers.
Then there are meetings. Of the Cabinet. Of Cabinet sub- committees. With
Ministry officials at a first get-to-know-you session. Then meetings with
officers of individual departments, corporations, organisations. Then
encounters with representatives of sectoral associations with their
respective interests. Of oil exploration companies, marketeers, refineries,
cartage contractors, petrol pump owners, unions, groups of young management
trainees, men and women, grossly over-recruited and mis-recruited in the
past three years into public sector corporations, nervous and uncertain
about their security of jobs.
Dealing with the new data headed at me from every direction is like walking
into a gale-force wind. The new information is fascinating in its scale.
The subject is complex, each sector intricate in its detail. The inter-
connectivity between a perishable resource and the minutely detailed
systems and structures that have to be created to exploit that resource is
engrossing, whether it be the processing technology, from production to
storage to transmission and distribution to consumption or the financial
methodology used to manage costs and rates of return. Notebooks and pads
are filling up fast.
Invitation cards proliferate. Lunches. Receptions. Dinners. We even managed
to have a breakfast meeting of a Board of Directors of a refinery
controlled by the Ministry.
Even the flag on the car seems to flutter faster when seen from the inside.
Whats all the excitement about? The driver, who has survived several
Ministers, keeps the car interior smelling fresh with just an extra bit of
air freshener. At least one does not have to look for a parking space for
the next three months.
Why are the papers so sceptical, if not actually outright hostile, to our
government? The critical tone of most newspapers and magazines about the
caretaker Government is curious. Some of the comments are pertinent and
instructive. Their general direction is well-motivated, obviously seeking
to ensure that the country is not forced to suffer because of our follies.
Yet there is also an unreasonable edge to the writing: presumptive,
arrogant and sometimes even outright ignorance and cynical, unwilling
to allow a new Government even 15 days before loosening up with their
canons. In politics, we live with the skin of a rhinoceros while trying to
sustain the heart of a human.
Already I am the victim of at least three disinformative reports in the
Press. The first one was datelined Lahore and said the Urdu equivalent of:
even if the Supreme Court restores Benazir, she will not regain power
Minister for Petroleum. The second: Minister flouts Prime Ministers
directive on austerity: orders five cars for his personal use in Karachi.
The third: Leaves the house of a widowed landlady in Islamabad without
paying four months rent and telephone bills. Each of the three was a
fabrication. Each was contradicted. But of course, the original story spurs
more comment and circulation than the contradiction. However, such is the
truth with which we live in an age of freedom of expression.
Am still staying in my sister-in-laws home in Islamabad. The place is so
much more comforting and hospitable than the large but cold premises
allotted to me in what I like to call the best servants quarters in the
country otherwise known as Ministers Colony. Perhaps I will move there
is a couple of days.
Suddenly, the time available for my family shrinks to too little. Is public
office not too high a price to pay for what is most precious?
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The mood of the sovereign awam
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Ayaz Amir
THE sovereign awam of whose sovereignty, let me say, I have always had my
doubts are in a troubled mood these days. Having been betrayed by their
leaders, they are sick and tired of professional politicos. At the same
time, they do not quite believe what the present caretaker lot is saying
which accounts for the widespread scepticism about elections despite
strenuous presidential assertions that come what may, they will be held on
time.
Far more ominously, however, the awam also want the tumbrils to roll
which is what happened when the French Revolution got going. Soaring prices
which are making life difficult even for the middle classes, the absence of
social services, the growth in administrative corruption and the hollow
sounds coming from the political arena are the factors which have driven
the people to these desperate straits. But honed by years of bitter
experience to make out the difference between appearance and reality, the
people also know that yearn as they might for drastic solutions they are
not going to get them from the present lot of carpetbaggers who are
alternately fuming and fumbling as they uneasily sit atop Pakistans
landslide-prone heights of power.
How do I arrogate to myself the right to speak thus of popular feelings? Go
to any public gathering a shadi, a journey in a bus, a conversation in
village baithak or city drawing room and unless I am grossly mistaken,
this is the mood whose dark and sullen depths you are likely to plumb. Not
for a moment do I say that I agree with this mood. There was a time when I
used to swear by the collective wisdom of the masses (misguided passion
being a prerogative of youth) but, sadly, not any more. More often than not
the wisdom of the masses is the wisdom of the mob attracted by gimmicks
and monkey tricks and swayed easily by slogans.
If the Pakistani awam, or at least a sizeable portion of it, could ever
take Benazir Bhutto seriously and if God forbid it ever begins to take
Imran Khan seriously (I get goose pimples merely thinking of this) is it
possible for any sane man to have much respect for its collective wisdom?
Benazir visits Lahore for the first time after her dismissal and says to a
crowd assembled outside Data Darbar that she has to come to meet the
Ghayyur Awam of the city. Some in the crowd must have cheered this line
which makes you despair of the human species. Or consider Karachi whose
Urdu-speaking population has the highest literacy rate in the country but
which for all that has allowed itself to be led down a blind alley by the
demagoguery of its Fuehrer, Pir Altaf Hussain. Thats the wisdom of the
masses for you.
Why I still remain wedded to the ideal of democracy is because if there is
anything worse than Pakistani-style populism it is Pakistani-style
authoritarianism. Such a sorry lot of tinpot dictators no other country has
probably seen. Which is what makes me afraid of the present sullen mood of
the awam. They want accountability (the sad Pakistani synonym for the
notion of revolution) but they are wrong to think that the carpetbaggers
now in place are in any position to deliver it. What the awam are thirsting
for is strong and heady drink. What they are getting from the present set-
up is accountability dipped in tepid and diluted milk. Justice Mujaddid
Mirza becoming the scourge of the corrupt? It takes an effort of the
imagination to get used to this idea.
Forget about the intricacies or the time-frame of the Ehtisab Ordinance.
Where is justice going to come from? How are the buccaneers who have grown
fat on the spoils of the Republic going to be made to disgorge their loot
and plunder? Not, I regret to say, by due process because we know where in
this land of ours due process leads. Summary justice, of the kind which
Lenin had in mind when he said that in order to make an omelette you have
to break a few eggs, is what the people of Pakistan want. But are they
likely to get this from soiled and faltering hands?
That is why the public mood is misguided. To satisfy their yearning for
justice and accountability they would gladly make a sacrifice of the
February 3 elections. if today a strongman in the Kemalist mould that
Sardar Farooq Leghari, let me quickly add, is not were to say that he was
drowning the Election Commission and its works in the Arabian Sea and
making an example of corruption by stringing up a line of fatcats on the
lamp-posts of the capital, the awam would cheer him and urge him on. Such
is their anger and the blackness of their mood.
But if such a thing were really to happen elections sacrificed at the
altar of accountability the people would be the biggest losers: elections
they would have lost in any case, and accountability at the hands of their
present masters, who are dealing in tepid milk, they will not get. They
will be worse off than before, for let us not forget the entertainment
value of democracy. It keeps the masses amused. What would you rather have:
misery and corruption in a circus setting or misery and corruption under
the leaden grey of an authoritarian sky? Give me the circus any time.
The awam, therefore, have to guard against the conspiracies that might be
woven in their name. Apart from the Muslim League in whose nostrils there
now rests the smell of victory, no other party or even school of thought is
keen on elections. Not the caretakers who, if only they had the courage of
their ambitions, would gladly push them aside; not Qazi Hussain Ahmed who
would dearly like a thunderbolt to fall on the major parties so that his
path to glory became smoother; not Imran Khan who is jumping into an
electoral contest prematurely; and not even the Daughter of the East who,
if I have her measure, would welcome a postponement because it would give
her party a reprieve and spare it the rubbishing which is likely to be its
fate if elections are held on February 3.
If the prayers of all these malcontents are heard and elections are indeed
postponed, the awam would not be greatly upset because, as I have said
already, their heart is set on the vague but tantalising prospect of
retribution from the skies. If vote they must, they will in all probability
make Mian Nawaz Sharif prime minister again. But if, for whatever false
reason, this opportunity is denied them, they will not pull the heavens
down. The soil for planting conspiracies, therefore, could not be more
fertile.
The Muslim League, however, is in a curious trance-like state. It is
preparing for elections and there is no shortage of ambitious souls wanting
to clamber aboard its bandwagon. But accost the more knowing of its
stalwarts in private and the worms of doubt eating away at their hearts are
easily revealed. Mian Nawaz Sharif says ...it is the job of the people and
not the government to remove anyone from power. While true, this sentiment
is not mindful of the lessons of Pakistani history. In 1958, for instance,
the country faced a similar situation. The Muslim League, then led by Khan
Qayyum, was considered the clear favourite to win the elections that were
to be held in February 1959. As part of his election campaign Khan Qayyum
led a massive rally from Gujrat to Serai Alamgir, an event still remembered
in political folklore as a great manifestation of popular strength. Yet
when martial law was imposed a few months later there was not a squeak of
protest from the Muslim League.
At the moment if there is any pressure on the caretakers to stick to their
election promise it is from the Press, not from any political quarter. I
personally think, for whatever my bedraggled opinion is worth, that
elections will be held on time, if for no other reason than that the
caretaker regime is too weak to postpone them. But there are so many straws
in the wind, the smell of so many different conspiracies wafting from dark
and secret corners that even the brave and the hopeful are being bent, even
if against their wishes, to the uses of scepticism.
The paradox confronting the Muslim League is thus a strange and unfamiliar
one. For much of its post-independence history the hand-maiden of various
dictators, today it stands as the foremost defender of democracy. But the
tragedy is that in the very hour of its glorification a gulf of apathy
yawns between it and the fervour of the people. If today the constitutional
goal-posts are shifted, it is a disheartening thing to realise that no one
will come rushing to the barricades.
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Responding to the challenge of change
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Benazir Bhutto
HOW realities change. Nothing remains the same; everything has to change.
One is neither prime minister nor political prisoner forever... one is
neither great nor weak forever.
Those words were spoken to me by my father before he was forced out of
power in a military coup, before he was executed. But those words still
ring true today.
Only when a people, a group or a leader acknowledges that nothing lasts
forever can one respond to the challenge of change.
As most of the world probably knows, the latest challenge I face comes in
the form of a coup led by a former friend and ally, President Farooq
Leghari. And now my country is under a presidential, civilian equivalent of
martial law.
My father died for this country and for parliamentary democracy... our
workers were hanged for parliamentary democracy. I get very emotional just
thinking about the sacrifices weve made.
When Leghari was elected, he pledged that he wouldnt use his political
power to dismiss the assembly before its five-year term was complete.
Perhaps the recent events in my country are an indication of a larger
trend. Maybe its result of the decline of ideology following the end of
the cold war casting its shadow on the internal politics of nations
around the globe.
Now that the world is no longer divided into two camps of black and white,
the people at large are finding it more difficult to distinguish between
political parties, political leaders and political programmes.
Everyone talks of deregulation, liberalisation and privatisation. Everyone
talks of combating crime and terrorism, and promoting human rights. So, how
can people tell the difference between one set of leaders and another? I
think its this lack of ideological clarity that has led to confusion, and
those who are greedy for power use this to their advantage.
With issues undefined and hard to understand, politics becomes more
personalised, with accusations and smears becoming the easiest way to
define ones opponents.
The media thrive on scandals, and trial by the Press has become the order
of the day. True or not, much of the mud sticks and the result is cynicism
toward government and political leaders which leads to disenchantment
with existing political structures and systems.
If there can be a solution to this problem, it lies in the creation of new
yardsticks by which to judge political parties and leaders, standards such
as how they handle the economy, how much they invest in human resource
development, and whether they promote womens rights and minority rights.
This is what the debate in my country should be about. Unfortunately, we
have sunk to new lows of character assassination and constitutional
upheaval. And while Im confident we will win in the end, it is frustrating
to waste so much time and energy when we could be working to improve our
peoples future.
And so, I wait as our Supreme Court considers my revised petition to
reinstate the legitimate government to power. Such an action is not without
precedent, since in 1993, the court overruled the firing of Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif. If the assembly dissolution in that case was wrong... well,
the charges against me are even flimsier and the assembly will be returned
to power soon.
As I try to explain to my children what has happened to our family in the
past few weeks, more of my fathers words and lessons come to mind.
It is because realities change that one should act so as to seek redemption
in the eyes of history rather than the transitory phase that one lives
through.
Thats why principles are important. Its because principles, whether
popular or not, mean fighting for something larger than ones own self.
They give a moral basis to the pursuit of life and make our time on earth
more meaningful, more satisfactory.Copyright 1996 Dawn-Creators Syndicate,
Inc.
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Cricket success after two years in Sharjah
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Lateef Jafri
THE recently concluded triangular at the Sharjah sheikhdom, clinched by
Pakistan in a final which had its own ups and downs, was full of surprises
and thrills. And in the maze of happenings the controversies too cropped up
to raise the eyebrows of the competing teams as also cricket officials and
the connoisseurs.
It is still debatable if the New Zealanders should have entered the final
or it were the Sri Lankans who had earned the right to lock horns with
Pakistan. The world champions had the better run-rate but since the round-
robin results had given the Kiwis the edge with one tied match the latter
sneaked into the final. The decision was handed out to the Champions Trophy
referee Mike Smith of England by the ICC Chief Executive, David Richards.
In fact Lords had initially ruled that Sri Lanka were the finalists. But
then the New Zealand management appealed to the ICC and gave their version
of the rule at which Richards got confused and sought an interpretation
from Dr Ali Bacher of South Africa, the person behind the rule and its
amendment. No doubt Ali Bachers ruling prevailed but the confusion over
rule 11.1 and the injustice done to Sri Lanka would be discussed for a long
time in the fora of cricket experts of the three participating countries of
the tournament as also in Sharjah whenever an international competition is
organised there.
However, many may enter into a debate about the fate of the final if the
ICC verdict would have gone in favour of the Sri Lankans. A team with a
deep batting order and a keen and resourceful attack would have been hard
to be beaten. Pakistan would then have been called lucky winners.
But was Pakistans Singer Cup victory entirely well-merited and deserving
or was there an element of luck or what the purists call uncertainties of
cricket? No enthusiast of the game would have thought even in his wildest
dream that New Zealand would fail to chase Pakistans modest score of 160,
reached with considerable struggle after the early and quick fall of Saeed
Anwar, the linchpin of their batting. The sudden collapse of the New
Zealand middle and lower order was unthinkable even if sometimes cricket
becomes a quick- motion film. Many are of the view that Abdur Rahman
Bukhatir, the main organiser of the show, masterminded the result of the
final through the umpires. Five leg before decisions, starting from a set
Adam Parore to Dipak Patel are unimaginable. The New Zealanders were
cruising serenely and easefully to victory at 66 for 2 when Bukhatirs ploy
was used and the Kiwis were overwhelmed by a bowling which is capable of
reducing to littleness any batting line-up in any setting and at any place
of the globe. There was procession to the pavilion and the New Zealanders
did not know how to tackle and face Pakistans ferocious pace and double-
spin attack. If New Zealand had five lbws why Pakistan had only one, many
observes of the game ask? The bookmakers must have minted money and the New
Zealanders were cheated of victory.
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Jansher clinches World Open title, sets record of wins
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A. Majid Khan
KARACHI, Nov 22: Pakistans formidable racket-wielder Jansher Khan,
defending champion, maintained his all-conquering record in the PSO 20th
World Open squash to extend his winning sequence to eight for his fifth
successive victories wearing down by Australian Rodney Eyles in a tense
title battle 15-13, 17-15, 11-15, 15-3 here before a packed-to-capacity
championship court gallery of the DHA Squash Complex on Friday afternoon.
Having surpassed legendary Jahangir Khans six wins record last year at
the Nicosia World Open, the impeccable Jansher today also equalled the
retired senior Khans five wins in a row.
The champion of the world lifted the prestigious cup and kissed it. Jansher
also received a cheque of Us dollar 21,000 and runner-up Rodney Eyles
dollars 13, 8000 of the highest US dollar 1,20,000 prize money of the
tournament organised by the Pakistan Squash Federation. The hotel bonus was
US dollars 10,000.
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Wasim Akram has to show his fitness
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Sports Reporter
KARACHI, Nov 27: The Chief Executive of the Pakistan Cricket Board, Majid
Khan, on Wednesday said Wasim Akram will have to show his fitness before he
is considered for selection for the tour of Australia.
Speaking from his Lahore residence, Majid said Akram will need to play in
the first-class competition and show the selectors that he has completely
recovered from his `shoulder injury.
Wasim Akram, the Pakistan captain, had pulled out from the series opener on
the morning of the first Test citing pain in his shoulder. Because of the
same injury, he had withdrawn 15 minutes before the World Cup quarter-
finals against India at Bangalore.
Wasim Akram had refused to bowl because of the same shoulder injury in the
second innings of the Faisalabad Test against Sri Lanka when Majid Khan was
the tour manager and Mushtaq Mohammad cricket manager.
There is no conspiracy, was the first reaction of Majid Khan, who added:
Professional cricketers do get injured. It is Wasim Akrams bowling arm
but he will hopefully recover and show the selectors he is fit.
Interestingly, Wasim Akram has never complained of the injury in his seven
years with Lancashire in the English County Championship.
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Shahbaz Jr opts out of Champions Trophy
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Walter Fernandez
KARACHI, Nov. 25: Olympian inside-left Mohammed Shahbaz Junior has ruled
himself out of the 18th Champions Trophy World Hockey Tournament scheduled
to be held in Madras (India) from Dec. 7 to 15.
The highly experienced Pakistan inside-forward told `Dawn at the Hockey
Club of Pakistan (HCP) Stadium here on Monday that he is still suffering
from blurred vision sustained during camp training a week ago because of
lacerated blood vessel behind his right eye.
Mohammad Shahbaz Junior added, he has since undergone two complete eye
test, one at the Akhtar Eye Hospital here and another under the supervision
of an eminent eye surgeon of Lahore of Dr. Mukhtar, who has arrived at the
conclusion that Mohammad Shahbaz would have to get his eye lacer treated to
correct the problem.
Dr. Mukhtar had programmed the laser treatment sometime on Tuesday and only
after that he would inform Shahbaz as to how long it would take for his eye
to get all right.
In view of Dr. Mukhtars advice, Shahbaz Junior has decided to skip the
National one-day trials slated to be held at the HCP on Nov. 30. As such he
has forgone his selection for the Champions Trophy squad.
Of course, Id like to be honest where Pakistans hockey is concerned. I
do not feel fully fit. So what is the point in going to India, said the
dashing Olympian inside-left.
Mohammad Shahbaz Junior has won a World Cup gold medal in two campaigns, a
Champions Trophy gold medal in seven tournaments and a bronze medal in two
Olympic Games, having picked it up in 1992 at Barcelona.
Dawn page